Uranium resurgence

[Stockbailx]

Here a link in regards to my previous post on this thread. Makes for sum interesting listening; Wrong Vid have a listen anyway?

 

[Stockbailx]

Here a comprehensive look at past fundamentals of the Uranium Sector, against the future movement. An Interesting incentive to investors in the sector. Telling of the overall out look of Uranium, for the future Market;

 

[Sean K]

The charts in the US and Canada are looking the same to ours. Some good technical points in this.

 

[Ann]

Once they have managed to kick oil, coal and gas out of the playground then there is very little real industrial-sized energy available except nuclear. Can't see wind, hydro or sun having enough grunt to run massive turbines, certainly not with the collection and delivery methods as they currently stand. I am not thrilled by the thought of nuclear proliferation but oil and gas are too finite and the alternatives are too much in their infancy. Also the younger generation has been so fired up with fear about climate change and the demonization of fossil fuels they will accept nuclear with unquestioning obedience when those who are running the narrative tell them it is the best fuel for the world. Tough when we have Chernobyl events all over the world, I guess we will adapt to live with radiation.

This is a quote from Trading Economics I found interesting especially with the thought about how easily the U price could be manipulated.....

"Uranium futures briefly rallied to above $50 a pound in late September, the highest since June 2012, before slightly easing, boosted by purchases from an investment fund. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust resumed purchases after Canadian securities regulators approved the expansion of the equity sales program allowing the fund to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months. The Canada-based fund is the only one that holds the physical commodity rather than futures contracts. Meanwhile, the supply of the nuclear-energy element remains tight. Euratom Supply Agency said that the coronavirus pandemic has significantly influenced the market as several companies announced in the second quarter of 2020 measures leading to an important decrease in production and related services. Also, Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer decided to keep production flat in 2022 and 2023."

 

[Stockbailx]

Here's a sign that Uranium Demand is taking control of the sector. Lord behold its what it need to surge...

NuScale signs agreement with new Polish partners to replace coal​

NuScale has signed a second agreement to consider its small reactors as a general replacement for coal units in Poland. The US small reactor vendor will support two energy firms, Poland-based Unimot and USA-based Getka, in their joint work to explore the possibility.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[Smurf1976]

an't see wind, hydro or sun having enough grunt to run massive turbines, certainly not with the collection and delivery methods as they currently stand.

From a purely engineering perspective it's doable most certainly, indeed hydro, wind and solar combined are already far larger than nuclear power globally and with stronger growth that gap is widening.

In 2020 nuclear generated 10.12% of world electricity production versus 28.98% from renewables. Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

In practice however energy decisions are driven largely by politics. So long as the engineering works, and both nuclear and renewables can be made to work technically, then beyond that it's economics and politics. Of the two, politics usually trumps economics given it's governments making the decisions in practice.

Taking the Australian context to make the point, if Australia decided to develop nuclear power then it won't be someone like the board of AGL or Origin deciding to do it. It'll be government that makes the decision and so long as the engineering can be made to work, the rest's about politics. Economics can always be fudged if need be. Much the same for pretty much every country - decisions about energy, particularly nuclear, are mostly made by governments.

In terms of investing in uranium stocks however, I'll go wherever the market goes.

Nuclear power as an industry most certainly does have competition though and economics alone doesn't determine the outcome - politics is the largest factor of the lot.



If politics decides that nuclear's the future though well then that's the outcome. My point is simply to be aware that's what's deciding it, politics, and there is indeed an alternative.

 

[sptrawler]

Spot on @Smurf1976 , politics, media pressure and public opinion, beats technical every time.
The issue this time round is IMO, technical will trump media and public opinion.

 

[Stockbailx]

Uranium had an adventure last week, falling sharply, a bounce of resurgence Monday. With more signs of nuclear power coming into play;

UK needs new nuclear, says Prime Minister​

The UK government is in discussions regarding proposals for a new nuclear power plant at Wylfa on Anglesey, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on 2 October in an interview with BBC Wales. He said previous governments in the country "have refused to take the tough decisions on nuclear for too long." Meanwhile, EDF Energy has called for the government to make prompt decisions regarding the Sizewell C project.
Johnson said the cost of energy can be held down "if we make the big long-term investments that we need to do now in clean power generation. So, whether that's wind - where we're going up to 40 GW by 2030, we can do even more - or nuclear."
He added, "We do need to go forward with more nuclear power. I do think it should be part of our baseload, a big part. And that's why yes, of course, we're looking at Wylfa and lots of other projects."
Reacting to the Prime Minister's comments, Tom Greatrex, Chief Executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, said: "The PM is right to back long-term investments in nuclear and to take the big decisions. We need new nuclear to secure our energy future with clean, reliable, British power. We look forward to the government bringing forward legislation to do just that this autumn."

 

[Ann]

If politics decides that nuclear's the future though well then that's the outcome. My point is simply to be aware that's what's deciding it, politics, and there is indeed an alternative.

Yes, this is very clear to me and totally agree with you Smurf. As the climate change agenda grips the political landscape ever harder in its control over government policies, I can see a time when countries will be rewarded with carbon credits for using "clean" energy such as nuclear. Shortly I will put up a chart for EU Carbon Permits, the price has increased by 80.68% since the beginning of 2021. This I believe will be the weapon by which governments will be clubbed into submission.

However, I am heartened by your comments on current renewables having enough grunt for industry.

In the meantime, it appears the price of oil and coal are taking off, just when BHP have jettisoned both these commodities!

My imagination is telling me that it is the last hoorah for both these commodities and they are in the process of being run up and then dumped. Time will tell.

 

[Smurf1976]

The UK government is in discussions regarding proposals for a new nuclear power plant at Wylfa on Anglesey, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on 2 October in an interview with BBC Wales.

Given the huge spike in the price of natural gas which has taken place across the EU and UK, to levels that are simply crippling financially, it's pretty much a given that at least some governments will "do something" in response.

Building nuclear power stations certainly isn't the only possible response but it's definitely one of them. All other things being equal, a massive spike in the price of natural gas sure isn't bad for any alternative technology and that includes nuclear as well as others.

That said, it'll be quite some years before anything which comes out of that physically needs uranium on site. How the market responds to that, anticipated future demand versus present actual demand, is a question.....

 

[qldfrog]

Yes, this is very clear to me and totally agree with you Smurf. As the climate change agenda grips the political landscape ever harder in its control over government policies, I can see a time when countries will be rewarded with carbon credits for using "clean" energy such as nuclear. Shortly I will put up a chart for EU Carbon Permits, the price has increased by 80.68% since the beginning of 2021. This I believe will be the weapon by which governments will be clubbed into submission.

However, I am heartened by your comments on current renewables having enough grunt for industry.

In the meantime, it appears the price of oil and coal are taking off, just when BHP have jettisoned both these commodities!

My imagination is telling me that it is the last hoorah for both these commodities and they are in the process of being run up and then dumped. Time will tell.

Last chapter true...in the next 20y...so will happen yes..Quickly?..no way

 

[Stockbailx]

Lets say; What's the score in 5-10 years. New reactors built positive energy towards climate change. Czechs heading in a similar direction to nuclear, Poland on Board, English signing up, Australian Subs. It's the new age, an unpredictable commodity. My faith is heading for a surge on demand. I mean think of the space age, everything running nuclear...

 

[Sean K]

Spot U up a couple of bucks, SPUTT probably buying, overseas stocks jump, ASX stocks up 10-20%. Doesn't take much positive news for our juniors to jump.

 

[Sean K]

Juniors up 15-20% yesterday. POU up 15% overnight. Nth A stocks and ETFs up significantly and huge volumes. Going to be another crazy day, but if I was relatively new money to this I'd be taking the opportunity to take profits soon. I've already done that and almost free carried. Didn't top up at the last correction when they were hitting support as I thought they were still overvalued. Oh well. Still long term play for me, topping up on future weakness, although, this looks like it could run away a bit too much and there's potential to miss the insanity.

 

[Stockbailx]

Issued 26 October 2021​ Nuclear industry report shows how nuclear technologies contribute to the UN Sustainable Development Goals​

Released today, a new document - Nuclear’s role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals - highlights how nuclear technologies contribute to addressing issues such as eliminating hunger, improving health, providing access to affordable and clean energy, generating decent work and economic growth, and mobilizing climate action. The 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an urgent call for action by all countries in a global partnership. The goals recognize that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with improving health and education, reducing inequality, and spurring economic growth – all while tackling climate change and protecting our environment. This document has been produced through collaboration by Canadian Nuclear Association, FORATOM, Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Nuclear Energy Institute, Nuclear Industry Association and World Nuclear Association. In an introduction to the document the heads of these organizations made the following comments: “Nuclear energy provides the clean, on-demand affordable electricity needed to meet the world’s growing energy demands, while fulfilling the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. But nuclear technologies do so much more! The planet and humanity are much better off because of the many nuclear contributions to achieving each of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals.” Sama Bilbao y León, Director General, World Nuclear Association “Nuclear requires very little land to generate massive quantities of low carbon energy. This low land footprint brings numerous benefits, not only in terms of reduced visual impacts. A lower land footprint reduces the loss of habitats, thus helping to support biodiversity goals.” Yves Desbazeille, Director General, FORATOM “Nuclear is a key energy source to balance the so-called three Es: energy security, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability. It is a reliable, established technology that can contribute significantly to a sustainable future.” Shiro Arai, President, Japan Atomic Industrial Forum “Advanced and existing nuclear reactors can provide new possibilities to support clean industrialization worldwide. They are uniquely positioned to provide clean electricity, decarbonize our resource extraction and heavy industries, work in tandem with renewables and can be used to produce hydrogen in a cost-effective, clean way using either electricity or heat processes.” John Gorman, President and CEO, Canadian Nuclear Association “Nuclear energy provides skilled, well-paid, long-term jobs that are essential to a just transition. Jobs in nuclear drive valuable investment into local communities and create real opportunities for the next generation to build a better life.” Tom Greatrex, Chief Executive, Nuclear Industry Association “Reliable nuclear carbon-free energy provides the foundation of a clean energy future to reach climate goals and improve public health and quality of life.” Maria Korsnick, President and CEO, Nuclear Energy Institute The report is available to download and to read online.

 

[Sean K]

POU seems to be stabilising around the $45-50 mark which is nice after such a significant jump last month. Needs to just establish a nice base around here to set itself up for a gentle push to $60 which is the mark for mothballed miners to go ahead with getting offtake agreements, updated their mills and getting ready for mining. Nuclear is getting lots of air time in the international media and there seems to be a push to not just keep and restart plants but build new ones. The longer term view is looking pretty rosie.

 

[Sean K]

Uranium and therefore stocks have had a choppy ride since breaking up. Seems to have held well above $40 but needs a solid push above $50 at some point to encourage mothballed miners into definite action on restarting although a few have made some substantial moves already. Still prepared to buy dips now as consensus after COP26 seems to be there will be more nuclear plants going forward, not less.

 

[Sean K]

Hasn't been as many big uranium swings this week. Been pretty steady above $45 and inching back to $50. It's ugly to chart as there's not much intraday action. Probably better to chart one of the uranium ETFs that seems to track the POU in the main, except include general market and metals sentiment. And, as published, most of our U stocks are tracking very similar patterns that seem to look a little like the POU chart. A breakout at the end of Aug, overshoot with a big spike, profit taking, recovery, consolidation, now heading back to highs forming a large ascending triangle/wedge/flag thing. It could keep curling sideways for a bit longer to develop the strength to spring back through $50. First job to break the last high at $49. Seems not a question of if, but when.

From Trading Economics

 

[Sean K]

I’ve had a concern Kazatomprom or Camenco would simply up their production to fix the supply demand nexus coming up, and that may just be the case. Need to confirm the details about timing and pounds per year but adding 200tns of additional supply for China at the click of their fingers has got to fill some gaps.