Uranium resurgence

[Sean K]

The uranium resurgence has stalled the past three months after the amazing run up in September. All the juniors have come well off, tracked sideways and down and some breaking some key support levels. Fairly bullish looking flag set up here on the longer term chart. Possibly an opportunity soon if she does break up for those who missed the first run and if we believe the longer term nuclear narrative.

 

[Stockbailx]

 

[Stockbailx]

Whats ahead for Uranium in 2022. Analyst say preces will surge ahead on gains, 2021 was an eventful year for uranium. Experts weigh in on supply cuts, rising demand and more.

 

[qldfrog]

Germany closed yesterday 3 more reactors, with the 3 remaining 3 to close in dec 2022.
Germany has do nearly completed its park closure from 17 to 3 and doon none, and is burning coal and gas..soon Russian gas..

 

[Sean K]

Germany closed yesterday 3 more reactors, with the 3 remaining 3 to close in dec 2022.
Germany has do nearly completed its park closure from 17 to 3 and doon none, and is burning coal and gas..soon Russian gas..

Energy security and cost in most of Europe is a real worry. Russia has them by the balls.

Germany, Belgium to close nuclear reactors despite Europe energy crisis

Germany intends to phase out all of its nuclear reactors by the end of next year, while Belgium is to shut down its existing plants by 2025.

balkangreenenergynews.com

Germany to close nuclear reactors despite energy crisis

Germany will shut down three nuclear power plants on Friday even as Europe faces one of its worst ever energy crises, following Angela Merkel's timetable for phasing out atomic energy.

news.yahoo.com

 

[sptrawler]

I think it is one of those issues that will resolve itself, renewables are the cheapest form of generation so obviously everyone is going for them.
If they find that they can't generate enough power to run the system, something else will have to be added to the mix.
The Chinese obviously don't feel renewables are going to be enough, they are installing over 100 new nuclear plants, considering the amount of solar panels and wind turbines China makes one would think they would solely rely on them if it was feasible.

 

[Sean K]

POU hitting $60 will trigger mothballed mines to fast track re-start. Going to be a good Monday I guess.

There may be a war premium in this, like there is with gold, so hard to say what's going to happen when a truce is called.

 

[Sean K]

Some nice healthy consolidation at the $60 mark. You'd expect this to be a significant wall now with the much telegraphed $60 incentive price being hit. It's caused BOE to tap the market and go to redevelopment, but the other moth-balled miners are yet to take the plunge from what I've seen. PDN and LOT must be close to making the call.

Having a mid to longer term view of this, I'm just happy with the price to stay above the $50 mark for some consolidation while there's so much uncertainty with the market and geopolitics right now.

 

[Stockbailx]

 

[Sean K]

Seems to have made a move from the consolidation around $59. Still a lot of volatility due to the war though. Anything could happen.

 

[Tyre Kicker]

Boris J pledged 8 nuclear reactors over the next 8 years. France up to 14.

Not a fait accompli but surely other nations will follow after the Russia/Ukraine war and the realisation that they’ve been over a barrel for a while re Putin and energy AND the climate change issue.

Demand for uranium should build nicely. Will the Sprot buying leave a shortage??

 

[Sean K]

Boris J pledged 8 nuclear reactors over the next 8 years. France up to 14.

Not a fait accompli but surely other nations will follow after the Russia/Ukraine war and the realisation that they’ve been over a barrel for a while re Putin and energy AND the climate change issue.

Demand for uranium should build nicely. Will the Sprot buying leave a shortage??

If the far-Right Le Pen wins the France Presidential election, expect that 14 to go higher. The tides are changing in Germany too, who are probably complicit in allowing Russia the air to invade Ukraine due to their reliance on Russian FFs. I anticipate Germany to dial back their rush to exit nuclear and potentially do a 180 and plan to build more. Japan is watching this unfold and with their reliance on FF from abroad, coming through the South China Sea, and nuclear, I expect them to build more plants too in expectation of China closing off their FF supplies when they invade Taiwan.

 

[sptrawler]

If the far-Right Le Pen wins the France Presidential election, expect that 14 to go higher. The tides are changing in Germany too, who are probably complicit in allowing Russia the air to invade Ukraine due to their reliance on Russian FFs. I anticipate Germany to dial back their rush to exit nuclear and potentially do a 180 and plan to build more. Japan is watching this unfold and with their reliance on FF from abroad, coming through the South China Sea, and nuclear, I expect them to build more plants too in expectation of China closing off their FF supplies when they invade Taiwan.

We did say a while back this could happen, China already committed to 100+ stations, the U.K a further 8, Germany is really wedged so it is only a matter of when not if IMO, the U.S will no doubt have to follow suit. IMO it is just a case of picking a winner.

 

[Sean K]

IMO it is just a case of picking a winner.

Or, throw a dart at re-starts and advanced developers. The easy money has probably been made, but there's a leg left in the run, IMO. MCs of the juniors are getting hefty again though.

 

[peter2]

I'm going to disagree that the easy money has been made because it hasn't been easy. Over the past two years there's been plenty of false starts and price pumps and dumps. Recently the price movements in uranium stocks have been very volatile.

The potential uranium producers have been waiting the the POU to hit $60 which it has just done. If it stabilises at this level (as mentioned by @Sean K ) then I think it will be easier to trade them as the companies will be building their plants furiously to supply their product into an increasing market.

Therefore the "easy" money will be made in the next few years.

 

[Tyre Kicker]

Any opinions about how a Labor Party victory will effect mining industry in general and in particular, uranium miners and the sales of uranium to other countries?

 

[qldfrog]

Any opinions about how a Labor Party victory will effect mining industry in general and in particular, uranium miners and the sales of uranium to other countries?

IMO, obviously depends on the Green score and them being needed or not to gain majority

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Boris J pledged 8 nuclear reactors over the next 8 years.

The strategy contains an ambition to deliver up to eight new nuclear reactors before 2030, including two at Sizewell in Suffolk. The government wants nuclear to supply 24 gigawatts (GW) of electricity by 2050 - around 25% of the UK's predicted energy demand.

The UK currently has 15 reactors that can supply about 20% of demand - with most due to cease operating before the end of the decade.

Thirteen new reactors are at various stages of development, but funding and approving new sites has presented major challenges in recent years. A new government body - called Great British Nuclear - will be set up to oversee the delivery of new nuclear plants. The government also recently acquired new powers to finance new projects by allowing developers to add costs to customers' bills during construction.

 

[Sean K]

Any opinions about how a Labor Party victory will effect mining industry in general and in particular, uranium miners and the sales of uranium to other countries?

Agree with @qldfrog that if Labor gets in on a Green deal then any future national uranium mining laws will be in jeopardy. But, there's existing state laws in place to allow it. Let's face it though, if the Greens have the balance of power they will try and kill anything that emits CO2 or methane. Lock up your sheep, cows and dogs.

 

[Sean K]

I'm going to disagree that the easy money has been made because it hasn't been easy.

Agree, it hasn't been easy. Needed some conviction in the narrative and fundamentals. Big risk. The easy money entered more than 12 months ago, and probably sold out in late Sep last year. But, some of those re-entered after the sell-off (eg Rick Rule) with the conviction in the narrative. He's probably a seller today.