Uranium resurgence

[Smurf1976]

No disagreement there, but my point is that uranium is a somewhat unique market in that demand doesn't really respond to price. In most markets there's a degree of response from both demand and supply to a change in price, but with uranium the response, in the medium term (10 years) at least, is from the supply side only. As such the market has, in theory at least, the potential to be rather volatile - if the price goes through the roof then that won't lead to nuclear plants sitting idle.

In contrast, coal is constrained in price by the oil and gas price due to the ability to substitute to significant extent and that coal is a major part of the operating cost of a power plant using it (assuming export pricing for the coal - not always the case in practice but often is).

 

[Value Collector]

No disagreement there, but my point is that uranium is a somewhat unique market in that demand doesn't really respond to price. In most markets there's a degree of response from both demand and supply to a change in price, but with uranium the response, in the medium term (10 years) at least, is from the supply side only. As such the market has, in theory at least, the potential to be rather volatile - if the price goes through the roof then that won't lead to nuclear plants sitting idle.

In contrast, coal is constrained in price by the oil and gas price due to the ability to substitute to significant extent and that coal is a major part of the operating cost of a power plant using it (assuming export pricing for the coal - not always the case in practice but often is).

Yes demand doesn't really respond to price, but the price certainly does respond to demand, and when the Americans do start reprocessing, we will have a whole lot of supply that won't respond to price.

In much the same way as a nuclear plant won't idle if the fuel costs increased, a reprocessing program who's aim is to reduce the volume of waste stored, will not idle supply if the price drops.

I just see the current supply being sufficient to meet demand, and we have a whole bunch of potential supply sitting on the side lines, and it will eventually come to market, whether that's 2years or 10years or 20years I am not sure. but when it does it will be big, and it will be willing to run at a loss.

 

[AverageJoe]

Yes demand doesn't really respond to price, but the price certainly does respond to demand, and when the Americans do start reprocessing, we will have a whole lot of supply that won't respond to price.

In much the same way as a nuclear plant won't idle if the fuel costs increased, a reprocessing program who's aim is to reduce the volume of waste stored, will not idle supply if the price drops.

I just see the current supply being sufficient to meet demand, and we have a whole bunch of potential supply sitting on the side lines, and it will eventually come to market, whether that's 2years or 10years or 20years I am not sure. but when it does it will be big, and it will be willing to run at a loss.

Could you name me some triggers for a Uranium resurgence? I frankly can't see any post Fukushima.

Crude collapse, Coal the same. Hell not even the Greens are talking solar/wind power anymore. Chevron sacking everyone in Karatha and we now have a gas glut. Fracking rules for cheap energy source.

You have frequent reminders off Japanese shores yearly and even the anti U Japanese lobby has sustain their objections with fresh reminder of Fukushima.

 

[Value Collector]

Could you name me some triggers for a Uranium resurgence? I frankly can't see any post Fukushima.

Crude collapse, Coal the same. Hell not even the Greens are talking solar/wind power anymore. Chevron sacking everyone in Karatha and we now have a gas glut. Fracking rules for cheap energy source.

You have frequent reminders off Japanese shores yearly and even the anti U Japanese lobby has sustain their objections with fresh reminder of Fukushima.

Did you read my comments?

I wasn't making a case for a spike in the Uranium price, I was making a case that in the years ahead we may have a significant oversupply.

Any how, I do think there will be consistent stable demand that will rise slowly as more reactors in china ramp up, and Japanese get back into it. But I think Supply will be able to meet this slow growth easily.

 

[AverageJoe]

Did you read my comments?

I wasn't making a case for a spike in the Uranium price, I was making a case that in the years ahead we may have a significant oversupply.

Any how, I do think there will be consistent stable demand that will rise slowly as more reactors in china ramp up, and Japanese get back into it. But I think Supply will be able to meet this slow growth easily.

Supply is over powering demand right now hence the low spot price. With the way nat gas price is, the Japanese industries will not be that pressurised by inflationary expenses on their energy input.

There is a long lead time between the completion of the Chinese N plants to actual U consumption. es, they have to stockpile a few years before they flick the N switch but you will see that rush in the spot price immediately if another potential earth quake does not form off the Japanese coast to set panic station. Just too risky from my experiences.

 

[Value Collector]

Here are some comments about the Mega tonnes to mega watts program, a program where decommissioned Russian Nuclear war heads were converted into fuel to be sold into the USA, notice he mentions the affect on price.

when you think about the large amount of nuclear warheads that the USA have to decommission, and 50 years of spent fuel rods, there is a lot of non conventional supply out there.

[video]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FmjQxav4zlA[/video]

 

[AverageJoe]

Here are some comments about the Mega tonnes to mega watts program, a program where decommissioned Russian Nuclear war heads were converted into fuel to be sold into the USA, notice he mentions the affect on price.

when you think about the large amount of nuclear warheads that the USA have to decommission, and 50 years of spent fuel rods, there is a lot of non conventional supply out there.

[video]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FmjQxav4zlA[/video]

LOL that garbage kept me in this sector longer than I should have.

As I have said in the past, you only have to look at crude and Nat gas to get a taste of what to expect in the future of energy source. At least if you start buying dirt cheap U stocks, you can position yourself for a big hefty cap gain when it comes back into favor. It's a mater of how patient you are.

 

[WRONG'UN]

Or how old you are!

 

[AverageJoe]

I rather keep my working elsewhere than to buy a dead sector with only hope as capital.

Here is a list of potential, DYL BMN TOE VMY AGS PEN SHE PDN. Can anyone see common things? Yep, look at an uptrend then turn head 180 degrees sideways and you see the 'real' chart.

 

[peter2]

The uranium sector is awakening.
I keep an eye on Cameco (CCJ.us) and the uranium ETF URA (probably mostly CCJ).

There has been a corresponding demand in ASX LISTED uranium companies, ERA, PDN, BKY, TOE, BMN.
After noticing this demand last week the ASX Momentum Portfolio took an interest in BKY.

 

[DNA2013]

It would be interesting to see if uranium prices are going to make a comeback after the recent production cuts from major uranium producers.

https://mywealthforlife.com/will-the-uranium-market-make-a-comeback/

As always. DYOR

 

[Sean K]

Not sure where best to restart the uranium discussion. Is there a better thread?

Seems the juniors have jumped the gun tripling and quadrupling in price over the past two years with the expectation POU is going back to $60-70. I think I said this somewhere else.

Is anyone on the uranium train these days, or is it just fluff?

 

[peter2]

Uranium ETF (URA- US) is being sold off as we speak. ASX uranium companies have been falling for the past two weeks. Uranium is cool for now, definitely not hot.

Uranium won't rally unless the "crazies" change their mind and realise that nuclear is the only option to eliminate the use of fossil fuels for 24hr power generation.

 

[Sean K]

Uranium ETF (URA- US) is being sold off as we speak. ASX uranium companies have been falling for the past two weeks. Uranium is cool for now, definitely not hot.

Uranium won't rally unless the "crazies" change their mind and realise that nuclear is the only option to eliminate the use of fossil fuels for 24hr power generation.

Yes, I've been watching the juniors come off which is a good thing. Ran ahead of themselves.

We might have to wait until the lights goes out enough times for people to change their minds on nuclear. It's a big hurdle in non-nuclear countries such as Australia. Are we the only country in the OECD without nuclear as part of the mix?

Anywho, I'm not thinking that we will be the ones to re-start the mothballed uranium mines but Japan and perhaps Chindia demand.

I think it's a medium to long term play - 5-10 years.

 

[peter2]

This current dip in uranium is a "buy the dip" opportunity but as you mention it might take years for a decent profit.

 

[Beaches]

Yes, I've been watching the juniors come off which is a good thing. Ran ahead of themselves.

We might have to wait until the lights goes out enough times for people to change their minds on nuclear. It's a big hurdle in non-nuclear countries such as Australia. Are we the only country in the OECD without nuclear as part of the mix?

Anywho, I'm not thinking that we will be the ones to re-start the mothballed uranium mines but Japan and perhaps Chindia demand.

I think it's a medium to long term play - 5-10 years.

There just doesn't seem to me to be any momentum for the uranium price to move substantially in the short term. It will have it's day in the sun again but for now, there are just better trading alternatives elsewhere.

 

[Sean K]

There just doesn't seem to me to be any momentum for the uranium price to move substantially in the short term. It will have it's day in the sun again but for now, there are just better trading alternatives elsewhere.

Certainly short term better opportunities, absolutely. Especially since the likes of PDN, BOE, DYL etc have already ran.

I suppose my thesis is that if you have the patience and think POU is going to $60+, which makes all these juniors profitable, then getting in before the rest of the market does might be a good move. But, as above, maybe the long money has already moved. So, maybe I've missed it.

It entirely depends on the demand outstripping supply which is probably reliant on the hangover from Fukushima subsiding, alternatives to coal and gas do not become realised in the next 5-10 years, and therefore countries turning to nuclear as a solution pretty soon. Restarting old, and building new. I'm not convinced batteries and hydrogen is going to replace the gigawatts required to power the world if we're going to get to net zero by 2030 or 2050 or 2100 even. The other factor may be that the earth starts cooling while CO2 continues to go up which may indicate that CO2 is not the climate control knob and we just restart coal and gas.

 

[Sean K]

Morgan Stanley thinks uranium is looking good. Short news article here. Not direct from MS.

 

[Sean K]

Sprott Uranium Trust started trading a few days ago and may be already moving things along.

Stockhead article. ASX Stocks Are Beginning to React ....

 

[divs4ever]

STATE OF EMERGENCY OVER MORE ELECTRICITY BLACKOUTS | HERE IS THE FIX​

rambles on a bit

but gives hints on uranium use in the US in the coming decade