Ukraine War

[Sean K]

When you say "paying for it" do you mean funding them with no ties or interest?

Aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sean K]

When you say "paying for it" do you mean funding them with no ties or interest?

I think the Vatican's support is most significant.

"As of March 2022, The Vatican has sent two Cardinals to Ukraine to provide “material and spiritual support” to the Ukrainian people"

 

[3 hound]

Aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A lot to read but a good start. I am trying to see how much financial aid is true donation and how much is payable back with interest.

 

[Craton]

UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​

So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.

 

[rederob]

By the way, if anyone thinks it was Ukrainian missiles that sunk that Russian ship, think again.

Alternatively, read what experts have to say rather than a random poster boy at ASF:

"The United States is now confirming that the Ukrainians did indeed fire Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) which led to the sinking of the Russian cruiser MOSKVA, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet."​

 

[Sean K]

UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​

So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.

I'm not sure if it was the poor translation or not, but that's just a rambling mess.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​

So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.

A viper on a soapbox is still a viper

 

[Sean K]

We're reaching an inflection point when the proxy war turns into direct action between NATO and Russia. Then, China gets involved.

I wonder if in 5 years time we look back and see that Russia started WW3. I hope not.


In the Oz:

'Immediate proportional response': Russia warns UK​

JACQUELIN MAGNAY

Australia was one of 40 countries agreeing to help Ukraine’s short term military needs and long term security issues at a United States-led meeting at the US defence airbase Ramstein in Germany overnight (AEST).

But the gathering – the first of proposed monthly meetings to bring together democratic and friendly countries to help thwart Russia’s aggression – was overshadowed by a sudden escalation in tensions between Moscow and London.

Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said it was completely legitimate for Ukraine to use British-donated weapons to attack Russian targets in Russia. He said such attacks on Russian supply lines would not necessarily be a problem.

“It’s completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia’s depth in order to disrupt the logistics that if they weren’t disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil,” Heappey said.

But Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned Britain of conducting a proxy war, saying if London and NATO allies continued to help Ukraine strike targets in Russia there would be “an immediate proportional response”.

Several oil and fuel depots in Bryansk, 100km inside Russian territory, and Belgorod, about 30km from the border have been attacked in recent days.

Lavrov said NATO countries were “pouring oil on the fire” by providing weapons, warning of “World War III”.

When asked directly about the possibility of a nuclear war, Lavrov replied: “The risks are very significant. I do not want the danger to be artificially inflated [but] it is serious, real. It cannot be underestimated.”

 

[Craton]

With the West’s combined spend in helping Ukraine passing the USA’s spend on the Afghan war, how much dry powder is available for all out war?
Rhetorical question if the nukes fall, but I do wonder what our, Australia’s cost will ultimately be, e.g. wasn’t payroll tax, introduced in 1941 to help with the war effort?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

With Russia now playing another card, cutting gas to Poland, and destroying as much Ukrainian infrastructure, especially oil storage and railway system, it looks like a long period of attrition setting in. Expensive fuel for Europe while the Russians will have an advantage (if they can't sell it!).

On the Afghanistan war cost, I remember seeing a photo of line of petrol tankers snaking up the Khyber Pass, and reading that it took a tanker of fuel ex- Karachi to deliver a Jerry can to the front line. Such were the strained supply lines. Imagine how quickly a chopper or tank chewed through the juice.

 

[Sean K]

With the West’s combined spend in helping Ukraine passing the USA’s spend on the Afghan war, how much dry powder is available for all out war?
Rhetorical question if the nukes fall, but I do wonder what our, Australia’s cost will ultimately be, e.g. wasn’t payroll tax, introduced in 1941 to help with the war effort?

When total war is declared then the national economy switches to the war effort. The government can sieze just about any asset they need to fund the war. Geez, they could intern people from the enemy's side if they wanted, which happened during previous WWs. If Russia declared war against NATO (which I don't think they will) then all Russian assets could be siezed by the government. This is where China will get into trouble if they try to take Taiwan by force. They have so many assets abroad owned by CCP affiliated cronies, they will be materially effected on a national level. Imagine Chinese owned mines being shut down around the World. Globalism has been great for China, but globalism may be their undoing also.

 

[Sean K]

The UN SG had his first meeting with Vlad yesterday, a month after Russia invaded a sovereign nation and has killed thousands of civilians including women and children. The UN is a useless piece of crap while the P5 have veto powers to sanctions.

 

[Sean K]

This is similar to how WW2 started in the Pacific. The analogy is reliance of energy supplies from other countries. In this case, it's Russia cutting off energy to the EU / NATO. Internal politics in Poland and Bulgaria will mean they have to respond. Do they acquiesce to Russia, or do they double down on support for Ukraine and seek back up from the EU? I think they've hitched their wagon to the EU and NATO. A concerning escalation.

Ukraine-Russia war: Russia cuts gas supplies to two NATO countries​

Vladimir Putin has begun ‘gas blackmail’ halting supplies to two European countries. It comes amid a new Russia threat against the UK.

Zoe Smith, Merryn Johns and AFP

Russia’s gas giant Gazprom has told Poland and highly dependent Bulgaria that it will halt its shipments of Russian gas to the two countries within hours.

“Bulgargaz received a notification today, April 26, that natural gas supplies from Gazprom Export will be suspended starting April 27,” Bulgaria’s economy ministry said late Tuesday local time in a statement.

“The Bulgarian side has fully met its obligations and has made all payments required under its current contract in a timely manner, strictly and in accordance with its terms,” it added.

Poland’s PGNiG gas firm also announced Tuesday that “On April 26, 2022, Gazprom informed PGNiG of its intention to completely suspend deliveries under the Yamal contract... on April 27.” The Polish operator said “all deliveries to customers are being made according to their demand”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak accused Moscow of “beginning the gas blackmail of Europe”.

“Russia is trying to shatter the unity of our allies,” he said.

“Russia is also proving that energy resources are a weapon.

“That is why the EU needs to be united and impose an embargo on energy resources, depriving the Russians of their energy weapons.”

 

[Craton]

Yep, was just a matter of time before this would happen. Probably explains why Gazprom execs recently met untimely deaths, leaking sensitive material would be my guess.

 

[Craton]

Further update to my previous post from this tweet:

Another Vice President of Gazprombank Igor Volobuev escaped to Ukraine, joined territorial defense forces there and gave this interview to the Insider, claiming there that recent family murder and then suicide of Gazprombank top manager Avaev were staged and it was a murder. Wow

As people joke in replies to
@the_ins_ru
- it is safer to be a trooper in the Ukrainian defense forces than a Gazprombank top manager

 

[Dona Ferentes]

this is somewhat alarming, as the numerical strength just isn't there in the East to hold and to successfully ambush with Javelins and other anti-tank weapons.

From ISW:

.... along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne, Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported. Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war. They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk. They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne, likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture. The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly, however, and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers.

 

[Sean K]

this is somewhat alarming, as the numerical strength just isn't there in the East to hold and to successfully ambush with Javelins and other anti-tank weapons.

From ISW:

Yes, I think they'll be in trouble until Russia get up to the river. That will be an obstacle they won't be able to cross as the Ukrainians will probably destroy all the bridges as a last resort. I think this was always Russia's plan. Attacking Kiev from the N and W was a feint to divert Ukrainian effort from the real objective, to steal the Russian speaking part of Ukraine, pretty much everything east of Dnipro.

 

[Craton]

Six Australian M777 howitzers sent to Ukraine have arrived into Poland.

Economic relief for Ukraine from the EU and UK

The European Commission has proposed today to suspend for one year import duties on all Ukrainian exports to the European Union. The proposal, which is an unprecedented gesture of support for a country at war, would also see the suspension for one year of all EU anti-dumping and safeguard measures in place on Ukrainian steel exports.

• UK to cut tariffs on all goods from Ukraine to zero under the UK-Ukraine FTA, providing much-needed economic support.
• New export ban on products and technology that Russia could use to repress the people of Ukraine.
• Tariff measures are part of broad UK economic support to Ukraine, including £1bn in loan guarantees.

 

[JohnDe]

I am still amazed at how poor the Russian military has performed. It is pleasing on one level but like a cornered rabid dog there's no knowing what will happen, until the end -

How rotten is Russia’s army?
Vladimir Putin uses warfare to make up for Russia’s weaknesses. That is why he is so dangerous

The might of the modern Russian army was supposed to show the world that President Vladimir Putin had restored his country to greatness after the humiliation of the Soviet collapse. Instead, poor progress and heavy losses in Ukraine have exposed deep flaws within Russia. For those threatened by Mr Putin’s aggression, a diminished army is a relief. Unfortunately, it also leaves a nuclear-armed power with a point to prove.

So far, the invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia’s armed forces. About 15,000 troops have been killed in two months of fighting, according to Britain’s government. At least 1,600 armoured vehicles have been destroyed, along with dozens of aircraft and the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. The assault on the capital, Kyiv, was a chaotic failure.

Leon Trotsky wrote that “the army is a copy of society and suffers from all its diseases, usually at a higher temperature”. Fighting in the east and the south of Ukraine over the next few weeks will not only determine the course of the war, but it will also determine how much the Russian army can salvage its reputation—and the reputation of the society it embodies.

Our briefing this week sets out just how rotten the army has been. Russia’s defence budget, of over $250bn at purchasing power, is about three times that of Britain or France, but much of it is squandered or stolen. Mr Putin and his top commanders kept their invasion plans from senior officers, reflecting a crippling lack of trust. Disaffected troops, fed on out-of-date rations, have deserted their vehicles. Units have tortured, raped and murdered only to be honoured by the Kremlin. Russia has failed to win control of the skies or combine air power with tanks, artillery and infantry. Wallowing in corruption, unable to foster initiative or learn from their mistakes, its frustrated generals abandoned advanced military doctrine and fell back on flattening cities and terrorising civilians.

Ukraine’s highly motivated forces are a rebuke to these Russian failings. Despite being less numerous and less well armed, they resisted the invading army by passing decision-making to small, adaptable local units given up-to-the-minute intelligence. Even if the Russian campaign, now under a single commander, makes gains in Donbas, it will do so chiefly thanks to its sheer mass. Its claim to be a sophisticated modern force is as convincing as a tank turret rusting in a Ukrainian field.

For Mr Putin this is a crushing setback. That is partly because, although he controls a formidable propaganda machine to help drown out his critics, the loss of face threatens his standing at home. It is mostly because the use of military force is central to his strategy for making Russia count in the world.

Russia may be vast, but it is a medium-sized polity that still yearns to be a superpower. Its population ranks between Bangladesh and Mexico, its economy between Brazil and South Korea and its share of global exports between Taiwan and Switzerland. Although Russia enjoys some sympathy in non-aligned countries like South Africa and India, its soft power is ebbing—hastened by its display of incompetence and brutality in Ukraine.

To fill the gap between its power and aspirations—and to resist what he sees as America’s encroachment—Mr Putin has repeatedly turned to the only sphere where Russia can still purport to be world-class: military force. In the past 14 years he has invaded Georgia and Ukraine (twice) and fought in Syria. His mercenaries have deployed to Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan and now Ukraine. Mr Putin is a global bully obsessed with his country’s inadequacies. Contrast that with China, which also has ambitions, but has so far been able to get results using its growing economic and diplomatic heft.

Humiliation in Ukraine weakens Russia’s last claim to superpower status. The war may yet drag on, and while it does Russia will not be able to mount big operations elsewhere. Equipment, ammunition and manpower are being used up fast. Restoring Russia’s forces to full strength and training them to avoid the mistakes in Ukraine could take years. Should sanctions remain because Mr Putin is still in power, the task will require even longer. Russian missiles are chock-full of Western components. The flight of talented, outward-looking Russians will weigh on the economy. All the while, the less that Russia can project military power, the less it will be able to disrupt the rest of the world.

That will be welcome. Yet, the invasion of Ukraine also holds lessons that are less comforting. For one thing, it shows that in pursuit of this strategy Mr Putin is willing to take risks that to many others—including many Russians—make no sense. Further decline in Russian power could lead to still more reckless aggression.

Ukraine also shows that in future wars if Russian forces cannot prevail on the battlefield, they will resort to atrocities. A weaker Russian army could be an even more brutal one. For those around the world facing Russian aggression, that is a terrible prospect.

Ultimately, weakness may lead Russia to the last arena where it is still indisputably a superpower: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. From the start of this war, Mr Putin and his government have repeatedly brandished the threat of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Putin is rational, in that he wants his regime to survive, so the chances of their use probably remain slim. But as Russia’s armed forces run out of conventional options, the temptation to escalate will surely grow.

The message for the wider world is that Mr Putin’s military opportunism in Ukraine must be seen to fail by his own officers and strategists, who may then temper his next headstrong scheme. A stalemate in Donbas would merely set up the next fight and it could be even more threatening than today’s.

Yet, even if Mr Putin is defeated, he will remain dangerous. The message for nato is that it needs to update its tripwire defence. This rests on the idea that a Russian attempt to take a bite out of, say, the Baltic states may succeed at first, but would trigger a wider war which nato would eventually win. That defence involves the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which are more fraught than ever if Russia’s conventional forces are weak. Better to have a large forward force that Russia would find hard to defeat from the very start. The best way to be safe from Mr Putin and his rotten army is to deter him from fighting at all. ■

 

[Craton]

How rotten indeed!

Fléchettes found in Bucha victims: evidence of Russian war crimes continues to grow.​

Forensic Report Confirms Russians Fired Brutal Metal Darts at Slain Bucha Civilians​