Ukraine War

[Craton]

To bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports,

Multinational Brands such as Apple, Tesla, GMC, HP and Sony have all announced that they intend to EXIT RUSSIA. They have SHUT their factories in Russia and STOPPED the EXPORT of all products to Russian markets. However the Russian Authorities have now PASSED A LAW which allows the IMPORT of BRANDED PRODUCTS without the BRAND OWNER'S CONSENT via the GRAY MARKET. As a result these businesses have now LOST CONTROL OF THEIR BRANDS and will be unable to prevent the sale in Russia. In this video I look at what the GRAY MARKET is, which brands are affected, what the legal position is and what the likely outcome will be.

 

[Craton]

A nice interactive map of the conflict from Military Land.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

another site ... https://militaryland.net/ ... good maps

Pressure relieved on Kharkiv, Donetsk looking tough, as RU forces being redeployed from Mariupol, And the Kherson / Mykolaiv axis crucial

 

[rederob]

A nice interactive map of the conflict from Military Land.

And the best commentator on the war, as a WAR, is Perun.
However, don't expect mere minutes, as Perun is an analyst with few peers, eg.

 

[Belli]

And the best commentator

Yes he is pretty good. Interesting but not surprising a gamer can use those talents honed in that sphere in other ways.

Following one of his vids "The Chieftain" presented an alternative view referencing one of Perun's vids and comments. All done without denigrating any particular view.

 

[SirRumpole]

Finland paused to join NATO, Sweden may follow. Putin is upset.

Russia warns Finland's decision to join NATO would destabilise security in Northern Europe

Russia warns that it will take unspecified "military-technical" steps in response to Finland's decision to join NATO, as Moscow continues to face setbacks in its invasion of Ukraine.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Craton]

And the best commentator on the war, as a WAR, is Perun.
However, don't expect mere minutes, as Perun is an analyst with few peers, eg.

Yes he is pretty good. Interesting but not surprising a gamer can use those talents honed in that sphere in other ways.

Following one of his vids "The Chieftain" presented an alternative view referencing one of Perun's vids and comments. All done without denigrating any particular view.

Glad you've both posted about this Aussie. His vids are very insightful and well presented.

 

[Craton]

Of course the real cost can't be tallied until it's over but the approx. cost of this little escapade so far:

Up to 2nd May 2022 - Ukraine: Infrastructure damage approx. $92 billion with approx total: $560~$600 billion

Up to 12 May 2022 - Russia: Hard to estimate but ranges anywhere from $1 billion to $20 billion per day!

Add other countries contributions.
Add the inflationary costs of commodities e.g. an extra $350 million added to the cost of buying oil since the start to the conflict.
Add lost GDP of those KIA.

Just a basic overview and doesn't account for the human suffering not only in Ukraine but other regions relying on vital commodities.

Data as per Joe Blogs.

 

[Belli]

I cannot located but there is a post here somewhere showing the costs to some companies which have withdrawn from Russia. Add Siemens (turbines, trains, medical technology) to the list.

Siemens to withdraw from Russia after 170 years

The German company has already taken a €600 million hit from sanctions on Russia

news.yahoo.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

from ISW. 13 May .. https://www.understandingwar.org/

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.

 

[3 hound]

$40 billion passed by US Congress on top of the previous billions passed for the Ukraine war effort while US farmers are struggling to buy diesel or afford fertiliser (that couldn't end badly for anyone now could it). Baby formula at risk of being rationed in US (let that sink in). Whitehouse blames US citizens for hoarding.

Hmmmm, who could be benefitting from keeping the war going as long and bloody as possible???

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.

and I found this interview with Henry K to articulate the realpolitik quite well

10 May, 2022

This is an edited transcript of a discussion between former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger and Financial Times US national editor Edward Luce on May 7 in Washington.

Financial Times: Earlier this year, we commemorated the 50th anniversary of the Nixon visit to China, the Shanghai communique. You, of course, were the organiser, the orchestrator of this Sino-US agreement. And it was a major shift in the Cold War: you split China from Russia. It feels like we’ve gone 180 degrees. And now Russia and China are back in a very tight relationship. My opening question to you is: are we in a new cold war with China?
Henry Kissinger: At the time we opened to China, Russia was the principal enemy, but our relations with China were about as bad as they could be. Our view in opening to China was that it was unwise, when you have two enemies, to treat them exactly alike.
What produced the opening were tensions that developed autonomously between Russia and China. [Former Soviet Union head of state Leonid] Brezhnev could not conceive that China and the United States could get together. But Mao, despite all his ideological hostility, was ready to begin conversations.
In principle, the [Sino-Russian] alliance is against vested interests, it’s now established. But it does not look to me as if it is an intrinsically permanent relationship

FT: The Biden administration is framing its grand geopolitical challenge as being democracy versus autocracy. I’m picking up an implicit hint that it’s the wrong framing?
HK: We have to be conscious of the differences of ideology and of interpretation that exists. We should use this consciousness to apply it in our own analysis of the importance of issues as they arise, rather than make it the principal issue of confrontation, unless we are prepared to make regime change the principal goal of our policy. I think, given the evolution of technology, and the enormous destructiveness of weapons that now exist, [seeking regime change] may be imposed on us by the hostility of others, but we should avoid generating it with our own attitudes.

FT: You have probably more experience than any person alive of how to manage a stand-off between two nuclear-armed superpowers. But today’s nuclear language, which is coming thick and fast from [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, from people around him, where do you put that in terms of the threat we are facing today?
HK: We are now [faced with] with technologies where the rapidity of exchange, the subtlety of the inventions, can produce levels of catastrophe that were not even imaginable. And the strange aspect of the present situation is that the weapons are multiplying on both sides and their sophistication is increasing every year.
But there’s almost no discussion internationally about what would happen if the weapons actually became used. My appeal in general, on whatever side you are, is to understand that we are now living in a totally new era, and we have gotten away with neglecting that aspect. But as technology spreads around the world, as it does inherently, diplomacy and war will need a different content, and that will be a challenge.

FT: You’ve met Putin 20 to 25 times. The Russian military nuclear doctrine is they will respond with nuclear weapons if they feel that the regime is under existential threat. Where do you think Putin’s red line is in this situation?
HK: I have met Putin as a student of international affairs about once a year for a period of maybe 15 years for purely academic strategic discussions. I thought his basic convictions were a kind of mystic faith in Russian history ...  and that he felt offended, in that sense, not by anything we did particularly at first, but by this huge gap that opened up with Europe and the East. He was offended and threatened because Russia was threatened by the absorption of this whole area into NATO. This does not excuse, and I would not have predicted, an attack of the magnitude of taking over a recognised country.
I think he miscalculated the situation he faced internationally and he obviously miscalculated Russia’s capabilities to sustain such a major enterprise – and when the time for settlement comes, all need to take that into consideration, that we are not going back to the previous relationship but to a position for Russia that will be different because of this – and not because we demand it, but because they produced it.

FT: Do you think Putin’s getting good information, and if he isn’t, what further miscalculations should we be preparing for?
HK: In all these crises, one has to try to understand what the inner red line is for the opposite number  ... The obvious question is how long will this escalation continue and how much scope is there for further escalation? Or has he reached the limit of his capability, and he has to decide at what point escalating the war will strain his society to a point that will limit its fitness to conduct international policy as a great power in the future.
I have no judgment when he comes to that point. When that point is reached will he escalate by moving into a category of weapons that in 70 years of their existence have never been used? If that line is crossed, that will be an extraordinarily significant event. Because we have not gone through globally what the next dividing lines would be. One thing we could not do in my opinion is just accept it.

FT: You’ve met [Chinese President] Xi Jinping many times and his predecessors – you know China well. What lessons is China drawing from this?
HK: I would suspect that any Chinese leader now would be reflecting on how to avoid getting into the situation in which Putin got himself into, and how to be in a position where in any crisis that might arise, they would not have a major part of the world turned against them.

— Financial Times

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Latest from Kherson, Ukraine.

"There were rumors that I hanged myself in a cell." – Viktor Marunyaka, the headman of Kherson released from captivity, spoke about torture and interrogations he experienced





Viktor Marunyak, the headman of Stara Zburyevka, was abducted by Russians and tortured for several weeks. Finally, together with his wife, he managed to evacuate.





He speaks about captivity:





They brought me to one of the bases - "Zburovsky Corner". I was kept there for the first three days. The room was cement, and cool. The first night we slept standing up. They beat me for the first day, then the second day and the third.





Then we slept while sitting. They could only give us a cup of tea in the morning – the whole meal for the day. For two, three hours they were keeping us undressed. Then they say, now we will go to the river, you will swim and you will drown. Or they point a gun at one of us and say, “Whether you will speak up or not. Let's shoot him now."





On the fourth day, they put a sack over our heads and took us away. Moved to Kherson. There they have beaten us again. Then they brought an anesthetic phone that produced current. They started to beat me with a significant current. Somehow they do it all with pleasure. Several more interrogations followed.





Then they took me to our district back, I went to the hospital. I’ve stayed there for ten days. My relatives lived near the hospital. I spent the night there, washed my face for the first time, and ate something. I was able to call my wife because for three weeks she didn't know where I was at all. Nobody knew. There were rumors that I hanged myself in the cell. While I was gone, my wife had two searches. Either searches, or looting. They stole everything from food to gold.





And two days ago they were looking for me again in the village. We already left, and got out just in time. And three days ago, the door was broken in the house, because there was a rotation. They left with the loot, and now they are robbing new houses…

gg

 

[Belli]

This link was sent to me. My mind boggles. Some grim humour in the comments too such as "I give this turret toss an 8.2. Clean dismount, good rotation, 3 1/2 pike twist, and it really stuck the landing. You just have to admire that form, the rotation control, the perfect landing! Wow, just Wow."

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Mariupol - still holding out



White phosphorus or thermite? (on an already burned and devastated environment)

 

[divs4ever]

The repercussions of the war in Ukraine are bankrupting countries around the world.
Sri Lanka is the first to fall. It won't be the last.

Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall in the face of a global debt crisis

The south Asian country is the first to buckle under economic pressures compounded by Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it won’t be the last

www.theguardian.com

am not sure you can blame Sri Lanka on the Russia-Ukraine thing

HOWEVER i am surprised neither India nor China stepped in to build stronger relations with Sri Lanka

India with the idea of forming it's own trading bloc ( as a sub-set of BRICs ) and China looking for a friendly port bordering on the middle-east region

but the economic contagion from the conflict are liable to be far-reaching

 

[divs4ever]

To bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports,

more importantly it would probably allow a flood of counterfeits , which i doubt the Russians would mind as long as they were paying 'cheap, knock-off' prices

i remember an associate who traveled to China when the first iPads were released , so being a computer professional bought a selection ( a REAL iPad , some close copies , and a clone .. externally different but internally superior to the genuine article .. all the optional upgrades included at less than half the real iPad's cost )

i am sure Apple would be delighted to lose the market share to Foxconn back-door escapees

 

[Craton]

From the ABC: Maca's to cease ops in Russia.

McDonald's has started the process of selling its Russian business, which includes 850 restaurants that employ 62,000 people, making it the latest major Western corporation to exit Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February.

From The Economic Times India: Companies sell their businesses in Russia and/or assets seized by the Russia.

Some Western companies have agreed to sell their Russian assets or hand them over to local managers as they scramble to comply with sanctions over the Ukraine conflict and deal with threats from the Kremlin that foreign-owned assets may be seized.

Also, don't forget the threats to the companies and the employees and their families if companies didn't comply with Moscow's directives!

From Forbes:

French carmaker Renault has sold its Russian assets to the Russian government, the company announced Monday, the first major nationalization of a Western company’s assets since Moscow threatened to punish those leaving the country over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

How will this impact?
A week or so behind but here's Deloitte's Weekly global economic update for the week of 9th May 2022, includes PMI.

Purchasing managers’ indices and the global economy​

• The global manufacturing industry suffered a deceleration in activity in April, according to the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from IHS Markit. In fact, growth of activity in the global industry hit the lowest level since August 2020, largely due to a sizable lockdown-related slowdown in China.

PMIs are forward-looking indicators meant to signal the direction of activity in the manufacturing industry. They are composed of sub-indices such as output, new orders, export orders, employment, pricing, inventories, pipelines, and sentiment. A reading above 50 indicates growing activity; the higher the number, the faster the growth—and vice versa.

The global PMI fell from 52.9 in March to 52.2 in April, the lowest since August 2020. The deceleration was driven by an absolute decline in output and a deceleration in new orders and employment. In addition, the global sub-indices for input and output prices indicated an acceleration of inflation in April, likely the result of disruption from the war in Ukraine as well as lockdowns in China. Of the 20 countries analyzed, the highest PMIs were in the Netherlands, United States, Australia, Austria, and Canada. The lowest PMIs were in China, Mexico, Myanmar, Taiwan, and Brazil. Only China and Mexico had PMIs below 50 indicating declining activity.

The most notable PMI report came from China. There, the manufacturing PMI fell from 48.1 in March to 46.0 in April, a level indicating a rapid decline in activity and the lowest PMI since the start of the pandemic. The sub-index for output fell at the steepest pace since February 2020 when China was largely locked down. It fell from 49.5 in March to 44.4 in April. There was also a sharp decline in new orders, dropping from 48.8 in March to 42.6 in April. Export orders fell to the lowest level since June 2020. In addition, the time it takes for inputs to be delivered to manufacturers increased sharply, indicating renewed supply chain trouble. Some companies reported the cancellation of orders due to difficulty in producing and transporting products. Despite this, there was an increase in backlogs.

All these difficulties were entirely due to the imposition of severe restrictions on activity meant to quell transmission of the virus, including the severe lockdown in Shanghai, China’s financial hub. Although survey respondents indicated optimism over the long-term, they also expressed concern about how long current restrictions would last. This remains unknown.

The troubles in China, as well as the war in Ukraine, led to a sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI for neighboring Taiwan. There, the PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 51.7 in April, a level indicating modest growth in activity. The sub-indices for output and employment indicated a decline. The sub-index for new orders showed no direction while the sub-index for export orders declined sharply. Only the sub-indices for delivery times and inventories improved. The health of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector is a good indicator for the global technology industry. The decline in Taiwan’s PMI shows how the lockdowns in China are affecting this key industry.

The lockdowns in China also affected Japanese manufacturing, but not as much. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 53.5 in April. This indicates a healthy rate of growth. Output was mostly unchanged as were new domestic orders. However, export orders dropped sharply, mainly due to the situation in China. That, and the war in Ukraine, added to supply chain disruption. The survey found a sharp decline in business confidence among Japanese manufacturers.

Growth of manufacturing activity remains strong in the United States and Europe, although there was a sizable deceleration in Europe in April. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI fell from 56.5 in March to 55.5 in April, a 15-month low but still a number indicating strong growth. The decline in the eurozone was largely due to supply chain disruption which led to soaring input prices and shortages. This was especially true in Germany which saw a very sharp decline in its PMI to a 20-month low. German automakers have been disrupted by lack of access to components made in Ukraine. France, Italy, and Spain faced less difficulty. Although the overall PMI for the eurozone remained healthy, the sub-index for output showed no increase in production.

Finally, the US manufacturing sector performed well in April. The manufacturing PMI increased from 58.8 in March to 59.2 in April, the highest level in seven months and one indicating rapid growth in activity. Evidently, the United States has not been as badly affected by events in Ukraine and China as other parts of the world. In April, there was strong growth of output, new orders, export orders, employment, and business confidence. Markit commented that “demand from consumers and businesses is proving encouragingly robust despite severe inflationary pressures, which intensified further during April.” Markit concluded that growth of economic activity in the second quarter is likely to be good, even as inflation gets worse.

• The latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for services in major countries demonstrates that the pattern of growth in this industry is hugely influenced by how governments react to the pandemic. Economic restrictions prevent people from going to restaurants and theaters, while easing of restrictions has the opposite effect. In China, the services PMI fell to the second lowest level on record in April, indicating a collapse in activity largely due to the various lockdowns that are currently in place. In the eurozone, however, the continued removal of government restrictions led to an acceleration in services activity in April, with the eurozone services PMI at 57.7, an eight-month high and a level reflecting rapid growth in activity. In the United States, growth of services remained strong but declined somewhat, hitting 55.6 in April, following a rapid surge in March. In India, services activity grew very rapidly following further removal of restrictions. The April PMI was 57.9.

Let’s focus on China. The services PMI for China fell from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the second lowest on record and a level indicating a catastrophic decline in activity. This was entirely due to lockdowns that limited mobility and production. The sub-indices indicate a decline on both the demand and supply side of the services industry. There was a decline in output and a severe decline in new orders. Travel restrictions meant a paucity of export orders. Employment fell modestly and backlogs of work increased as the pandemic had a negative impact on supply chain efficiency. Input prices were up but output prices fell. The latter meant that service enterprises, facing limited demand, were compelled to cut prices in order to attract sales. Interestingly, the sub-index for business sentiment was positive, meaning that businesses were optimistic that the current crisis will ultimately pass. Meanwhile, the weakness of both the services and manufacturing PMIs (the latter was 46.0 in April) bode poorly for GDP growth in the second quarter.

 

[Craton]

As per the ABC, a defeat... of sorts.

Ukraine's soldiers leave Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks, declares end to longest battle in war with Russia​

Troops holed up in the last Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol have begun evacuating, appearing to cede control of the once prosperous city to Russia after months of bombardment.

Ukraine's military command said in the early hours on Tuesday that the mission to defend the Azovstal steel plant by "the heroes of our time" was over and it pledged to rescue servicemen still trapped inside.

"The 'Mariupol' garrison has fulfilled its combat mission," the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in a statement.

"The supreme military command ordered the commanders of the units stationed at Azovstal to save the lives of the personnel."

Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Anna Malyar said 53 injured troops from the steelworks were taken to a hospital in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk, some 32 kilometres to the east.

Another 211 people were taken to the town of Olenivka, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists, she said.

All of the evacuees will be subject to a potential prisoner exchange with Russia, she added.
Reuters saw five buses carrying troops from Azovstal arrive in Novoazovsk late on Monday.

Footage showed various buses with red crosses and the "Z" symbol transporting Ukrainian servicemen.

There was no immediate word on whether the wounded would be considered prisoners of war.

Some troops 'severely wounded'​

Some of the evacuated troops were wounded and carried out of the buses on stretchers.

About 600 troops were believed to have been inside the steel plant.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Monday a "difficult" day.

"We hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys," Mr Zelenskyy said in a late-night address.

"There are severely wounded ones among them. They're receiving care. Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive."

"The work continues to bring the boys home, and this work needs delicacy. And time," he added.

Ukrainian troops say they held out in Azovstal for 82 days, buying time for the rest of Ukraine to battle Russian forces and secure Western arms needed to withstand Russia's assault.

But the evacuation likely marked the end of the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukraine war and a significant defeat for Ukraine.

There has been no immediate response from Russian authorities to the developments in Azovstal.

 

[rederob]

As per the ABC, a defeat... of sorts.

I regard Mariupol as a defining moment in the impotence of the west.
Since WWII America has been involved in many skirmishes and wars, with occasional Australian support. But once we see a true ally in real trouble, and tens of thousands of civilians killed, we declare Ukraine a no-go zone because of Russian aggression.

If the day ever comes that China seeks to integrate Taiwan we will no doubt be as bold as we have been with Ukraine.