Ukraine War

[Garpal Gumnut]

Further on the idea that the whole process was built on bribes comes this from Washington Examiner

Thanks Mick,

The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is de rigeur in Russia.

Skimming starts at the top and goes all the way down from the FSB to the company that makes their version of Tim Tams.

It starts with Putin at the top.

It does however provide an easy excuse to get rid of a smaller enemy or miscreant.

Just accuse them of embezzlement. It will work 100% of the time because the whole economy runs on it.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

Thanks Mick,

The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is de rigeur in Russia.

Skimming starts at the top and goes all the way down from the FSB to the company that makes their version of Tim Tams.

It starts with Putin at the top.

It does however provide an easy excuse to get rid of a smaller enemy or miscreant.

Just accuse them of embezzlement. It will work 100% of the time because the whole economy runs on it.

gg

If indeed much of this is true, Putin should be very very worried.
The underlings will see that the leader has been humilitaed along with his intelligence force, the military, and the nation in general.
So how long before they turn on him?
I reckon his days are numbered.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Thanks Mick,

The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is de rigeur in Russia.

And not a good way to mount an invasion. Assemble troops and tanks at the border, tell them it's an exercise and not much else, let them sit for a month and what do they do? Sell fuel to the locals.
Then the word comes to move out, and how far do they get?

The destruction of the spetsnaz forces must rankle

 

[Craton]

If indeed much of this is true, Putin should be very very worried.
The underlings will see that the leader has been humilitaed along with his intelligence force, the military, and the nation in general.
So how long before they turn on him?
I reckon his days are numbered.
Mick

Could already be a done thing. Like you say, just a question of when as per: How Russia Will Die. This was posted on 26 Mar 2022 and another fantastic and very informative expose by the well regarded Peter Ziehan.

The Youtube clip is an excerpt from a Podcast with Jordan Harbinger.

Here, we examine how the current Russia-Ukraine conflict became a “now or never” option for Putin, the downsides for Russia if it “wins” and what we expect its next steps to be, what NATO is doing to avoid turning this into a nuclear-escalated World War III, why Putin’s actions leading up to this point in time don’t bode well for Russia in any scenario, and what a country like China with expansionist goals of its own might take away from Russia’s hard-earned lessons.

 

[Craton]

Russian Covert Operations Exposed in Ukraine​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Interesting @Craton . Of course the west is aiding Ukraine. I would expect nothing less. It's less 'covert' than a brief on the current situation.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Kursk is just 'up the road' less than 200km from Kharkiv. The Battle for Kursk was a defining point on the Eastern front. I suspect Russian tactics are little changed.

Losses on the field were sharply lopsided, some estimates counting only 200,000 German casualties compared to between 700,000 to 800,000 losses for the Soviets.

In the end, the Germans, already decimated at Stalingrad and threatened by the invasion of Italy, could not continue fighting against the never-ending waves of Soviet troops and tanks.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

apologies if it has been posted before, but do you reckon this guy still has a job? (from 22 Feb)

In late February, Putin called this inner circle to a televised meeting so he could ask them whether he should invade Ukraine. As Sergei Naryshkin, chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stammered and looked visibly uncomfortable, Putin demanded a "yes or no" to war.

"Speak directly!" he twice ordered his intelligence chief, who was trying to explain the nuances of his position. Eventually Naryshkin acquiesced and his boss told him to sit down.

 

[Craton]

Having seen the spectacle of that security meeting, geez, didn’t that demonstrate the strangle hold Putin has over his Siloviki?
The fear on their faces was hard to hide because they all knew, the broadcasting of them giving support for the invasion made them all culpable and accountable. No way they can say they didn’t support it.

 

[Craton]

Interesting @Craton . Of course the west is aiding Ukraine. I would expect nothing less. It's less 'covert' than a brief on the current situation.

Did u see that vid showing Russian hand grenade booby traps in civilian homes and anti personnel mine hiding in a shopping bag?

This is not a combatant conflict but out and out terrorism, designed to place fear and terror on the Ukrainian people.

The “current situation” started with that sacked ex president of Ukraine fleeing the country back in 2013. As he did so he asked Putin to send in the Russian Forces hence, Crimea was annexed.
Of course there is a lot more to that sacking.

Regardless, the Ukrainian’s have been in armed conflict with Russia ever since and without a resolution, was bound to escalate as we have witnessed.

BTW. That ex prez, now living in exile in Russia, in 2019 was convicted of treason by the Ukrainian courts.

 

[Craton]

From Liveuamap within last 12hr. Click on "Jump to map" for more info. re. the conflict

Vice PM of Ukraine: despite agreements Russian military not allowed evacuation from Mariupol today

Also reported:

In Kharkiv region Sercurity Service of Ukraine found warehouse with ammunition and spare parts for military vehicles worth $200M

Russian sabre rattling...

Russia test-launched Sarmat ICBM from Plesetsk

Sarmat test as reported by Reuters:

Russia tests nuclear-capable missile that Putin calls world's best​

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - In a show of strength two months into its assault on Ukraine, Russia test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile which President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday would make Moscow's enemies stop and think.

Putin was shown on TV being told by the military that the long-awaited Sarmat missile had been test-launched for the first time from Plesetsk in northwest Russia and hit targets in the Kamchatka peninsula, nearly 6,000 km (3,700 miles) away.


The test of the Sarmat, under development for years, did not surprise the West, but came at a moment of extreme geopolitical tension. Russia has yet to capture any major cities since it sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Ukraine's defence ministry was not immediately available for comment.

"The new complex has the highest tactical and technical characteristics and is capable of overcoming all modern means of anti-missile defence. It has no analogues in the world and won't have for a long time to come," Putin said.


"This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country."

Announcing the invasion eight weeks ago, Putin made a pointed reference to Russia's nuclear forces and warned the West that any attempt to get in its way "will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."


Days later, he ordered Russia's nuclear forces to be put on high alert. "The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said last month.

Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday the Sarmat was fired from a silo launcher at 1512 Moscow time (1212 GMT).

Russia's nuclear forces will start taking delivery of the new missile "in the autumn of this year" once testing is complete, Tass quoted Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Roscosmos space agency, as saying on Wednesday.

SYMBOLIC TIMING

Jack Watling of the RUSI think-tank in London said there was an element of posturing and symbolism involved, less than three weeks before the annual Victory Day parade where Russia shows off its latest weapons.

"The timing of the test reflects the Russians wanting to have something to show as a technological achievement in the lead-up to Victory Day, at a time when a lot of their technology has not delivered the results they would have liked," Watling said.

Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the launch was an important milestone after years of delays caused by funding issues and design challenges.

He said more tests would be needed before Russia could actually deploy it in place of ageing SS-18 and SS-19 missiles that were "well past their sell-by date".

Barrie said the Sarmat's ability to carry 10 or more warheads and decoys, and Russia's option of firing it over either of the Earth's poles, posed a challenge to ground and satellite-based radar and tracking systems.

Igor Korotchenko, editor in chief of Russia's National Defence magazine, told RIA news agency it was a signal to the West that Moscow was capable of meting out "crushing retribution that will put an end to the history of any country that has encroached on the security of Russia and its people".

Ukraine has mounted stiff resistance and the West has imposed sweeping sanctions to try to force Russia to withdraw forces Moscow says are on a special operation to degrade its southern neighbour’s military capabilities and root out people it calls dangerous nationalists.

 

[Craton]

Russian defence minister Shoigu has reported to Putin that Russian forces have fully captured Mariupol, except of Azovstal

Then later:

Putin ordered Shoigu to cancel assault on Azovstal and impose siege on it​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Russian defence minister Shoigu has reported to Putin that Russian forces have fully captured Mariupol, except of Azovstal

Then later:

Putin ordered Shoigu​

Therein lies a conundrum for the boys in the Kremlin.... Starve them (a slow process) or have your May 9 victory parade.

Either way, it's medieval. But there again, that's Team Putin.

PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan op ed piece. ... a bit of a curator's egg, IMO

 

[basilio]

Putin finally gets it right.

Attempting to fight the last 2000 Ukrainian soldiers in the tangled mess of the steelworks would be a tactical disaster. I'm guessing the estimated losses of soldiers would be at least 5000 - if they could get them to actually fight. It wouldn't surprise me if the frank advice was that the experienced soldiers, the conscripts or any officers would not have the stomach for a meat grinder attack.

I came across an excellent analysis of urban warfare. Worth checking out if anyone is interested in the topic.

The Eight Rules of Urban Warfare and Why We Must Work to Change Them​

John Spencer | 01.12.21

From October 16, 2016 to January 4, 2017, US-backed Iraqi security forces conducted a full-scale city attack to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State. The operation was the largest conventional land battle since the attack on Baghdad during the US-led invasion in 2003 and one of the most destructive urban fights in modern history involving Western forces. The battle saw a force of over one hundred thousand attacking somewhere between five and twelve thousand enemy fighters defending the city. The nine-month battle is reported to have killed over ten thousand civilians, caused an estimated two billion dollars in damage to the city, created ten million tons of debris, and displaced over 1.8 million of the city’s residents.

This type of high-cost, high-risk operation—the city attack—will continue to increase in frequency unless the rules of modern urban warfare are addressed in a deliberate manner. In other words, the limitations characterizing the conduct of urban warfare must be overcome.

..Urban warfare has its own rules. In large-scale combat operations to liberate an enemy city today, those are rules that most if not all militaries have allowed to remain in place since World War II. These rules give great advantages to a defending force and make it an attractive option for militaries, insurgents, and terrorists who are weaker than their opponents. Until these game rules are changed (through a major change in tactics, technology, or weapons), the tendency of comparatively weaker actors seeking refuge and advantage in cities—and the damage caused in their liberation—will only continue.

The Eight Rules of Urban Warfare and Why We Must Work to Change Them - Modern War Institute

From October 16, 2016 to January 4, 2017, US-backed Iraqi security forces conducted a full-scale city attack to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State. The operation was the largest conventional […]

mwi.usma.edu

 

[Craton]

Therein lies a conundrum for the boys in the Kremlin.... Starve them (a slow process) or have your May 9 victory parade.

Either way, it's medieval. But there again, that's Team Putin.

PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan op ed piece. ... a bit of a curator's egg, IMO

Am assuming you're referring to the "How Russia Will Die" clip. Yes, op ed and as mentioned an extract from a Podcast with Jordan Harbinger.

I like that Peter gives the good and bad, very apt because the future is unknown. He encapsulates the broadest spectrum of important issues and factors into a coherent dialogue on the issue at hand. Don't get me wrong, I do not agree with all he has to say but to me, Peter is very insightful and spells it all out in a way that resonates.

 

[mullokintyre]

An interesting sideline developing overnight in Russia.
From Zero Hedge

The death toll in the massive fire that broke out earlier in the day at a sensitive Russian Defense Ministry research facility in the city of Tver has risen to seven after emergency crews battled the Thursday blaze throughout the afternoon, state-run TASS reports.

The cause of the fire is still either unknown or not being disclosed by Russian state agencies at this point, but now more questions are being raised as another mysterious large blaze has erupted, this time at Russia's largest chemical plant, a mere hours after the fire in Tver - the latter which had engulfed a facility belonging to the secretive Central Research and Development Institute of Aerospace Defense Troops. UK media is reporting on the latest mystery fire, which marks the 2nd in the day, as follows:

Huge plumes of smoke were seen enveloping the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant late this afternoon. The cause of the fire remains unknown. Almost 150 plant workers were reportedly evacuated.
The facility in Kineshma, east of Moscow produces more industrial solvents than any other in Russia. It is less than 1,000km from the border with Ukraine.

Coincidence that two major fires occur within hours of each other, or was it sabotage?
Who knows, but I am sure the various players will put their spin on it.
Mick

 

[Belli]

This is very funny in a number of ways. Steal airpods and let the opposition know of troop movements.

 

[rederob]

PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan op ed piece. ... a bit of a curator's egg, IMO

Belongs in a museum?
Rather than with the clergy who can cure it?

On topic, aren't the Ukranians doing well? Of course we would rather they were Iraqi or Afghani so we could get in there and help out, but they have our blessing. And as much as we would like to offer fighter planes, they only asked us for Bushmen, so we are all good!
Who mentioned Mariupol? Fair suck, the Chinese are about to invade us from the Solomons so we have a lot on our plate right now. Anyway, the Russians seem to have done a pretty good job liberating the Ukrainians, mostly from their homes mind you, and we are really thankful they are still sending their oil and gas to needy nations.

 

[Craton]

Belongs in a museum?
Rather than with the clergy who can cure it?

On topic, aren't the Ukranians doing well? Of course we would rather they were Iraqi or Afghani so we could get in there and help out, but they have our blessing. And as much as we would like to offer fighter planes, they only asked us for Bushmen, so we are all good!
Who mentioned Mariupol? Fair suck, the Chinese are about to invade us from the Solomons so we have a lot on our plate right now. Anyway, the Russians seem to have done a pretty good job liberating the Ukrainians, mostly from their homes mind you, and we are really thankful they are still sending their oil and gas to needy nations.

Perhaps we should be full tilt into building nuke bunkers and to do it properly, let's ask the Ukrainians stuck in Mariupol for blueprints, plans and pointers for said bunkers and hunkering down tactics.

Cheers for the tongue-in-cheek though, needed a tad of stress relief.

BOT (back on topic).
I really should start to refer to this conflict as a Defacto or, more aptly, a Clayton's WW3. The world war you're having when you're not having a world war.
I'm mean really, it is in a sense a World War. The world sanctions, the material and $$$ being sent from all over the world to fight the aggressor in a typical us against them scenario. The only thing missing, NATO and West militaries upon Ukrainian land, sea and air.

Of course no one (in the West) wants an all out war and so we ply Ukraine with the means and material to repel the aggressor. From that, we all see the price of freedom and the Ukrainians continue to show us how to pay and what the cost truly is. It is this fact that endears and bonds us so strongly with Ukraine.

I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.

 

[rederob]

I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.

If Ukraine is the new normal then we avert a real WWIII by never assisting any nation which is being attacked by a country possessing global nuclear strike capability.
In that context Taiwan would be hung out to dry and so would Australia.