Ukraine War

[Garpal Gumnut]

and another festering issue. Moldova .... and Transnistria.

• 2.7 million pop
• Dependent on Russian gas
• the government was fully aware of the "vulnerabilities that Moldova is in", including the energy sector..
• applied to join EU
• Some 1500 Russian troops in the latter breakaway sector could cause problems

One tiny European nation fears it may be central to Putin's plans to wreak new havoc in Ukraine

While Moldova has long demanded Russia withdraw troops from the separatist region of Transnistria, its residents are split on the likelihood of an attack from Russia's troops.

www.abc.net.au

Mittel Europe is a mob of bloodthirsty tribes.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

from ISW

Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to combat growing morale problems among Russian troops.

Ukraine’s GUR reported that Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to low morale.[1] The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates.

ah, yes, bring in the Political Commissars

 

[Belli]

An interesting take on the winner/loser status.

 

[Belli]

 

[Sean K]

If this is true, is it crossing some sort of line?

In the Herald Sun:

Ukraine-Russia war: Unverified reports of chemical attack in Mariupol​

Russia has reportedly used chemical weapons in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where it’s believed “tens of thousands” of people were killed.

Merryn Johns, Maria Bervanakis and AFP

Britain is trying to verify reports that Russia has used chemical weapons in an attack in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, London’s top diplomat said.

Western officials have previously expressed concerns that Russia, finding its February 24 invasion of its neighbour grinding into a protracted conflict, could resort to more extreme measures, including chemical weapons.

“Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details,” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter.

“Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account.”

Ukrainian politician Ivanna Klympush said Russia had used an “unknown substance” in Mariupol and that people were suffering from respiratory failure.

“Most likely chem.weapons!” she tweeted.

On messaging app Telegram, an aide to the Mariupol mayor wrote that a chemical attack “is not currently confirmed”.

“We are waiting for official information from the military,” Petro Andryushchenko wrote.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Azov battalion claimed a Russian drone had dropped a “poisonous substance” on troops and civilians in Mariupol.

 

[Craton]

If this is true, is it crossing some sort of line?

In the Herald Sun:

Ukraine-Russia war: Unverified reports of chemical attack in Mariupol​

Russia has reportedly used chemical weapons in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where it’s believed “tens of thousands” of people were killed.

Merryn Johns, Maria Bervanakis and AFP

Britain is trying to verify reports that Russia has used chemical weapons in an attack in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, London’s top diplomat said.

Western officials have previously expressed concerns that Russia, finding its February 24 invasion of its neighbour grinding into a protracted conflict, could resort to more extreme measures, including chemical weapons.

“Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details,” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter.

“Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account.”

Ukrainian politician Ivanna Klympush said Russia had used an “unknown substance” in Mariupol and that people were suffering from respiratory failure.

“Most likely chem.weapons!” she tweeted.

On messaging app Telegram, an aide to the Mariupol mayor wrote that a chemical attack “is not currently confirmed”.

“We are waiting for official information from the military,” Petro Andryushchenko wrote.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Azov battalion claimed a Russian drone had dropped a “poisonous substance” on troops and civilians in Mariupol.

Posted 10hr ago as per Liveuamap
NOTE: To view map, click "On live map" at top left.

Azov regiment says Russian troops used kind of chemical dropped from a drone, those impacted have respiratory failure, vestibulo-atactic syndrome​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Sadly, just crossing another line in the affront to civilised behaviour

 

[mullokintyre]

The Martens from Wall street on Parade suggested that the Russian eceonomy is tanking in a big way, which may be much bigger problems for Putin than the tut tutting from the West.

There is growing evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and growing atrocities against Ukrainian civilians are not just delivering long-term damage to Russia’s reputation around the world but to its economy at home as sanctions begin to take a heavy toll.

Automotive News Europe reported yesterday that “New vehicle sales fell 60 percent in March from the previous month at Rolf, Russia’s largest dealership….” Rolf’s CEO, Svetlana Vinogradova, told Reuters she expected full year demand to fall by half in 2022.

Perhaps that will leave more cars heading to other countries to help ease the world wide shortage?

Forecasts for overall economic contraction is Russia this year range from a 10 percent contraction forecast by Goldman Sachs to a 15 percent drop forecasted by the Institute for International Finance.

Signs of a slowdown are already showing up in manufacturing. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Russia fell to 44.1 in March. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Even Russia’s economy ministry is sharing news of the bleak outlook. Reuters reported yesterday that the economy ministry announced yesterday that “annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 16.70 percent as of April 1.”

In an attempt to deal with the soaring inflation, the Russian central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent. One day after the Ukraine invasion, Standard and Poor’s cut Russia’s debt rating to junk. Junk ratings soon followed from Moody’s and Fitch.

Geez, now thats what I call some CB intervention! 20% interest??

The U.K.’s Daily Mail reported on Saturday that in Russian supermarkets “Instant coffee has risen almost 70 per cent and sugar is up 30 per cent.” Multiple European news outlets are reporting that shelves are bare for feminine hygiene products.
Russia, with a population of 145 million will most likely have a GDP on par with or lower than Australia's GDP which has a population of 25 million, one sixth that of Russia.
Just how far does the economy have to contract before the plebs start to get restless?
Mick

 

[Sean K]

The Martens from Wall street on Parade suggested that the Russian eceonomy is tanking in a big way, which may be much bigger problems for Putin than the tut tutting from the West.

Perhaps that will leave more cars heading to other countries to help ease the world wide shortage?


Geez, now thats what I call some CB intervention! 20% interest??

The U.K.’s Daily Mail reported on Saturday that in Russian supermarkets “Instant coffee has risen almost 70 per cent and sugar is up 30 per cent.” Multiple European news outlets are reporting that shelves are bare for feminine hygiene products.
Russia, with a population of 145 million will most likely have a GDP on par with or lower than Australia's GDP which has a population of 25 million, one sixth that of Russia.
Just how far does the economy have to contract before the plebs start to get restless?
Mick

It's looking nasty for your every day Moscovite isn't it. Not sure how much public information is available inside Russia at the moment and what spin is being put through local media, but you'd think they'd be getting close to the real info. Maybe. But, if they change the regime, will they just get another autocrat who wants to do the same?

 

[againsthegrain]

It's looking nasty for your every day Moscovite isn't it. Not sure how much public information is available inside Russia at the moment and what spin is being put through local media, but you'd think they'd be getting close to the real info. Maybe. But, if they change the regime, will they just get another autocrat who wants to do the same?

It was the same in Germany before ww2... Hitler was a great saviour promising to fix it all through his war machine

 

[Craton]

It was the same in Germany before ww2... Hitler was a great saviour promising to fix it all through his war machine

Yep, the so-called "big lie" to justify warmongering.

 

[JohnDe]

A few Aussie breweries helping out, found this one interesting -

UKRAINIAN TWIN PK

UKRAINIAN TWIN PK

www.bacchusbrewing.com.au

 

[bigdog]

Russia has big plans for its space program despite international sanctions

The country has been shunned by the international community since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.

www.space.com

Russia has big plans for its space program despite international sanctions​

By Elizabeth Howell published about 12 hours ago
The country has been shunned by the international community since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Russia's space program will power through the "difficulties" that have followed the nation's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Putin was quoted by the Russian state media news source TASS on Tuesday (April 12), which was "Cosmonautics Day" in Russia. The annual celebration honors the launch of Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, who on April 12, 1961, became the first person to reach space. Russia inherited the Soviet space program after the USSR dissolved in 1991.

Putin, who signed a law last year allowing him to stay in power until at least 2036, struck an optimistic tone about the future of Russia's space program. "We will necessarily implement all mapped-out plans consistently and persistently, despite any difficulties and some attempts from outside to impede us in this movement," Putin said in the TASS report, which translated his comments from Russian.

The "difficulties" and "attempts from outside" are likely allusions to the numerous international sanctions that have been imposed by the U.S. and other nations since Russia invaded Ukraine.

These sanctions are manifestations of international disapproval, which has led to the dissolution of many of Russia's space partnerships. For example, Europe recently announced that it will no longer participate in Russia's Luna series of robotic moon missions, nor will it launch the ExoMars rover Rosalind Franklin on a Russian rocket as previously planned. (The International Space Station, in which Russia is the chief partner alongside NASA, continues operations as usual, at least for now.)

In the TASS report, Putin said that Russia plans to continue its Luna-25 moon mission, which is scheduled to launch this year; a broadband satellite series called Sfera (Sphere); a "next-generation transportation spacecraft" and propulsion technologies focusing on nuclear capabilities in the coming years. He was quiet about military affairs in spaceflight, however, including recent reports that Russian forces are jamming GPS access in Ukraine.

Marcia Smith, founder of the website SpacePolicyOnline.com, said it is unclear to which nuclear technologies Putin is referring. "The Soviet Union used to launch military ocean reconnaissance satellites powered by nuclear reactors," Smith wrote in a recent post. But, she noted, there were several several malfunctions with this series of satellites, called Kosmos. The most notable, in 1978, saw Kosmos 954 drop nuclear debris across 300 miles (482 kilometers) of northern Canada.

Putin also pointed to space collaborations with Belarus, a close military ally of Russia, in remote sensing as well as "developing the town of Tsiolkovsky and the Vostochny spaceport." He predicted this measure would soon pass the upper house of his government, "following which, naturally, a new law will be signed."

Putin's comments came after he met Tuesday with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Russia's far eastern Amur region, according to the Washington Post. As for Putin's discussions of government procedure, U.S. President Joe Biden strongly disagreed that these decisions are democratic. Biden said Tuesday that Putin is a "dictator" who "commits genocide", according to CNN.

Putin said that Belarus enterprises "have been renowned since the Soviet period for their competences in the manufacture of high-tech equipment, complex optoelectronic and radio-technical systems."

TASS and other Russian state news sources are the only easily accessible forms of news for most Russian residents, as the government recently cracked down on democratic expression in the press. Most international outlets have closed down their Russian bureaus or moved journalists out of concern for their reporters' safety, according to The Guardian.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The West Must Help Ukraine Free its People to Stop Russian Atrocities​

Apr 14, 2022 - Press ISW

Helping Ukraine liberate its people and territories is the only way to stop Russian atrocities and prevent future ones. The West must rush the military support that Ukraine needs to do so.

Bucha is an observable microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians. Similar intentional atrocities are happening throughout Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. Russia’s playbook includes several consistently reported efforts.

Russia revived its “filtration” concept in Ukraine. Russian soldiers are executing Putin’s bogus order to “denazify” Ukraine. They are forcing civilians in the occupied areas to undergo “filtration” to identify so-called “nazis,” which in practice means anyone opposing Russia’s unprovoked invasion.

Specifically, Russians have been searching for, kidnapping, torturing, and executing local leaders, activists, and journalists in the occupied areas.[1] The US government warned about Russian lists of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps even before Feb 24 invasion.[2] Russians are continuing to create these lists and target activists.[3]

Russian forces are also looking for people affiliated with or sympathetic to the Ukrainian defenders. Russian soldiers are checking Ukrainians’ phones and documents and even looking for tattoos with Ukrainian symbols, such as the country’s coat of arms.[4] Kremlin media and telegram accounts openly confirm these facts.[5] Russia is making Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) undergo this filtration process as well.[6]

Russia is forcing refugees, including those deported from Ukraine to Russia against their will, to undergo filtration as Russians are looking for “extremists.”[7] US and Ukrainian officials called out reports about Russian forces taking Ukrainians into “filtration camps” before moving them to Russia.[8]

Russia used similar camps during its brutal wars in Chechnya to establish a state system of terror and intimidate the local population.[9]

Russian forces are also engaged in a broader effort to target civilians and use terror to force the local population into submission. Russians are executing unarmed civilians; reports of rape are widespread.[10] Russian forces are targeting civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.[11]

Russian forces are trapping civilians in Ukrainian cities by blocking and attacking evacuation efforts.[12] Mariupol is one of the most horrific examples but far from the only one.[13] Russia is also forcibly deporting Ukrainian civilians, including children, from occupied areas to Russia.

Putin’s decision to deploy Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) to Ukraine indicates that population suppression is a clear Russian goal. Rosgvardia is not part of the Russian Armed Forces; it directly reports to Putin and is one of his suppression tools in Russia. Rosgvardia is deployed to the occupied areas, like Kherson, and has been detaining activists, quashing protests, and engaging in other forms of suppression alongside the Russian Armed Forces.[14]

Russian atrocities in Ukraine are not a new phenomenon. Russia and the forces it controls have been committing atrocities in Ukraine for the past eight years. A prison, known as “Izolyatsia,” in Donetsk has been a de facto torture camp.[15] Russia has been prosecuting Crimean Tatars on the peninsula for years.[16]

Atrocities are a part of the Russian way of war in Ukraine and beyond. Terror is part of the Kremlin’s offset efforts to compensate for the limitations of Russia’s military power and the lack of value that the Kremlin can offer those it is trying to control—both inside and outside Russia.

Russia cannot control areas in Ukraine without terror. Russia is militarily controlling some places, like Kherson, but it cannot govern them. The locals are resisting Russia’s rule. People in Kherson, for example, have been protesting Russian forces and Rosgvardia.[17]

Russia has used terror and the indiscriminate killing of civilians in its previous military campaigns in Chechnya and Syria to pacify resistant populations in those areas.[18]

Russia will continue terrorizing the population until Ukraine drives Russia out of its land. Russian forces will terrorize Ukrainians in every area Russia seizes. “Denazification” is yet another cover for the Kremlin’s decades-long quest to strip Ukraine of its sovereignty. Atrocities will continue as long as Russian forces remain in occupied areas. Whether these areas are Russian-speaking is irrelevant: Mariupol and Kherson have many Russian speakers.

A ceasefire risks expanding Russia’s bandwidth to terrorize local populations. Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine remain unchanged. He made it clear over the past 20 years that he will accept nothing less than Russian control over Ukraine. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire it offers to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty.[19]

Stopping the fighting will not necessarily stop the killing—it will leave those Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines unable to defend themselves and will allow Russian forces in Ukraine to focus more on filtration efforts in the areas they occupy.

The West should not try to push Ukraine into a ceasefire or a peace deal for the sake of short-term peace and should instead focus on helping Ukraine win this next phase of the war.

Ukraine can win the next phase of this war with timely and proper Western support. Ukraine has won the first phase of this war and has a chance to win the second one. Russia is regrouping for a major assault in Ukraine’s southeast. The outcome of this phase is far from determined, as Russia struggles to amass the combat power necessary to achieve its military objectives in Donbas.[20]

With proper and timely military aid, Ukraine has a chance to win the second phase by pushing back Russia’s offensive and continuing its efforts to liberate Russia-held areas. The Ukrainian government has made clear what military aid it needs from Western leaders. Those needs include tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, multi-launch rocket systems, air defense systems, and combat aircraft.[21]

Time is critical: the West must deliver the aid Ukraine needs to defeat the next wave of the Russian offensive before that offensive begins.

Half measures or delays in military aid will prolong the war, increase Putin’s chances of winning, and lead to more death and destruction.

 

[Value Collector]

More dirt on the Biden Administration; Just want to display my discuss with Biden and the way his led NATO and the EU not to confront the Russian forces, but to dance around the invasion and leave Ukraine out to dry without a no fly zone...i don't think he's a competent person, leading Australia into dismay around it's policy to China...A filthily individual that passed his overdue date and should be espied.

The Biden Crime family on the wrong side of the fence. A corrupt Biden, that thinks and says he knows the enemy, but really he's just apart of it... Say's he knows Putin, but really there kissing cousins...

Fox News will rot your brain, stop watching it before your symptoms become permanent.

 

[Telamelo]

Just released..

"An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-will-immediately-escalate-attacks-on-ukraine-in-response-to-moskva-explosion-expert-warns/news-story/f27ff792819891f9f81038b9692b5bc7

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just released..

"An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-will-immediately-escalate-attacks-on-ukraine-in-response-to-moskva-explosion-expert-warns/news-story/f27ff792819891f9f81038b9692b5bc7

This is Putin's last chance.

Let us hope he continues to f.ck it up.

Most military observers reckon that Ukraine is now evenly matched with Russia atm. given the inexperienced top down army of the latter and the committed, patriotic, cyber-equipped and high morale defenders of the former.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

"An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".

It's "all clear" in Kyiv now after several loud overnight explosions were reported in the Ukrainian capital. Blasts were also earlier reported in Kherson - Ukraine's authorities have so far made no public comments on the situation in the Russian-occupied southern city.

Ukrainian officials usually do not rush to either confirm or deny media reports of blasts: the key reason is that they do not want to give Russian forces any information about whether they have hit or missed their intended targets. Social media users have also been warned not to publish any photos or videos from blast sites or share geolocation details.

what a disciplined society.

"Fifty days of our defence is an achievement," President Zelensky said. "Achievement of millions of Ukrainians. Everyone who made the main decision in life on 24 February - to fight. To be human. Not to give up. And not to betray."

 

[Belli]

If it is true the Russian invasion tactics was based on the (false) belief there were Russian support groups in Ukraine able to assist Russian troops it is almost, but not quite, funny. Basically, a directorate was provided cash to establish and support such groups but people in the directorate kept the cash and submitted false reports to the Kremlin the groups actually existed.

 

[mullokintyre]

If it is true the Russian invasion tactics was based on the (false) belief there were Russian support groups in Ukraine able to assist Russian troops it is almost, but not quite, funny. Basically, a directorate was provided cash to establish and support such groups but people in the directorate kept the cash and submitted false reports to the Kremlin the groups actually existed.

Further on the idea that the whole process was built on bribes comes this from Washington Examiner

Last month, members of Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, began to disappear. Espionage is, by its nature, an opaque business, but sources suggested that senior members of the FSB’s Fifth Service, essentially Russia’s overseas intelligence operation, were being arrested or confined to their homes. There was talk of embezzlement, but definite facts were thin. The details are only now emerging, and they help explain why Russia is losing in Ukraine and, indeed, why autocracies are often terrible at fighting wars.

Until 2014, Ukraine was fairly evenly split between, to borrow 19th century Russian terminology, Westernizers and Slavophiles. Some Ukrainians wanted to join the institutions of the free world, including NATO. Others preferred, if not a merger with Russia, at least a special relationship with what they saw as the sister nations to their east and north. When Putin annexed Crimea and effectively detached parts of the Donbas region, he removed millions of Russophile voters and thereby gave Ukraine a solidly pro-Western majority.

Putin had thus unwittingly created what was, from his perspective, an intolerable situation. The last thing he wanted was a kindred population on Russia’s border, speaking a cognate language but moving toward liberal multiparty democracy. So he began to prepare for a further and more decisive military intervention.

From at least 2015, the FSB’s Fifth Service was charged with preparing the ground. Large sums were set aside to suborn Ukrainian civil and military leaders. The idea was that when the moment came, senior Ukrainians, such as mayors, regional governors, generals, and police chiefs, would switch sides, opening the gates to their paymasters.

But the FSB’s bosses never believed an invasion would happen. And so, Russia being Russia, they siphoned the cash off into yachts in Cyprus and numbered Swiss accounts.

Imagine the scene when, toward the end of 2021, Putin called his spy chiefs in and asked them to confirm the bribes had been disbursed and that key Ukrainian institutions would throw in their lot with the Russian invader. The terrified FSB leaders assured him that, yes, all was well while desperately trying to find a way out of the hole they had dug for themselves.

Running away was not an option. Their former colleague Alexander Litvinenko had fled to London, accusing the FSB of having orchestrated the Moscow theater hostage crisis and apartment bombings. But living in London did not protect him. He was assassinated with polonium in 2006. Another former agent, Sergei Skripal, had moved to the sleepy English town of Salisbury, but he was poisoned with Novichok in 2018 by two GRU operatives. He survived, though an innocent bystander was killed. If even living under the queen’s peace was no guarantee of safety, what could the corrupt FSB officers do?

It looks as if they did the only possible thing in their position. They sought to prevent the invasion from happening so that their embezzlement should not come to light. The way they appear to have done so is to have told their Western counterparts what was being planned, hoping that, once Putin knew that his plot had been uncovered, he would drop it. Hence the detailed knowledge that Britain and the United States had about what was coming — knowledge that their governments made public and that Putin lamely denied.

In the event, of course, the invasion went ahead anyway. But the same structural problem continued to plague it — namely that, in authoritarian states, people tell their bosses what they want to hear. It soon emerged that much of the money set aside for the modernization of the Russian military had also been diverted into private bank accounts. Tanks lacked basic spare parts. Weapons systems failed. But, again, no one wanted to be the bearer of bad news.

This brings us to a counterintuitive truth. Democracies, supposedly soft, decadent, and convulsed in culture wars, often turn out to be better at fighting than brutal dictatorships. This is not because their people are braver or more virtuous — it's because they have systems in place that allow for greater transparency and speedier error correction.

Let’s flip that around. The thing that Putin’s Western admirers tended to drool over was how “strong” he was. Far-right European politicians such as Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, as well as a few Trumpsters in the U.S., thrilled to the way he knocked opponents aside and sneered at gay rights.

But ask yourself this: How strong does he look now? It turns out that, although his goons were plenty strong when murdering female journalists or breaking up peaceful demonstrations, they fell to pieces against regular soldiers.

Don’t write off open societies — they’re tougher than they look.