U.S. to crash?

[mullokintyre]

oh dear, missing post #78. anyway, reflects more on whoever than whatever

geez, you must be devastated.
mick

 

[divs4ever]

But wait, theres more!.
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So who was investing back in 2008?
Hows ya memory?
Was it a good time?
Mick

not me , i had to read about it later , watch a movie (and some documentaries )

and try and work out a strategy for 'next time ' ( whenever that is )

 

[divs4ever]

2007 probably wasn't.

Where are we now?

lucky basket !!

i had to make do with 2011 and 2020

but gee i have heard about ' climbing a wall of worry ' and i wonder if ....

 

[Value Collector]

1/ Expect market returns

2/ Ummm yeah, but that doesn't quite address the nuance of the question, but I'm sure you know that.

3, Why Thursdays?

1. Well, I have achieved much better than market average returns, over time. But yeah in the dollar cost averaging into the index side of my portfolio I do expect market returns, that’s why I do it.

2, The nuance in my answer is that it’s 2024, I don’t think we can compare it to any other time, and even if it was going to look like 2007 I don’t think there is any way to really know, and it wouldn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things anyway. People have called another GFC type thing many times since the GFC.

3, That’s just the day I chose for the weekly allotment to my super / index fund to be paid, I pay my weekly wage to myself each Thursday and I just set the super payment to go through on the same day. No real reason other than when I was in the Army My pay went in on Thursdays, so when I started paying my own wages I kept that tradition.

So each thursday I am automatically buying the following.


In my main account I am not buying every thursday, that happens more irregularly based on prices and when I receive dividends etc or decide to write options.

 

[wayneL]

1/ Okay, I believe you. There is roughly a random 50% chance of outperforming the index on that basis.

2/We can look to historically similar periods for clues as to where we are. That's not foolproof, but it is a point of analysis.

3/Whatever work for you is all good.

 

[Value Collector]

1/ Okay, I believe you. There is roughly a random 50% chance of outperforming the index on that basis.

1, Well there is no need for blind faith, if you just take two of my positions which I have been extremely vocal about on the threads here, eg Fortescue metals and capilano honey, those two alone basically guaranteed anyone who had a decent chunk of their portfolio invested in it would outperform the market even if the rest of their portfolio was junk. But the rest of my portfolio hasn’t been junk, it’s done pretty well too over the years.

 

[wayneL]

1, Well there is no need for blind faith, if you just take two of my positions which I have been extreme vocal about on the threads here, eg Fortescue metals and capilano honey, those two alone basically guaranteed anyone who had a decent chunk of their portfolio invested in it would outperform the market even if the rest of their portfolio was junk. But the rest of my portfolio hasn’t been junk, it’s done pretty well too over the years.

Everyone relies on the end of the bell curve.

 

[divs4ever]

1, Well there is no need for blind faith, if you just take two of my positions which I have been extreme vocal about on the threads here, eg Fortescue metals and capilano honey, those two alone basically guaranteed anyone who had a decent chunk of their portfolio invested in it would outperform the market even if the rest of their portfolio was junk. But the rest of my portfolio hasn’t been junk, it’s done pretty well too over the years.

well my short journey with FMG was profitable enough , but they started venturing places i would rather not go ( with my money ) , it might have been different if i was in a 'free-carried' position , but i wasn't i had investment capital at risk

but yes content with your portfolio is a nice place to be

 

[TimeISmoney]

Some interesting economic figures are coming out of the US, high debt but low unemployment rates, just enough to keep them ticking along.

 

[qldfrog]

Some interesting economic figures are coming out of the US, high debt but low unemployment rates, just enough to keep them ticking along.

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Trouble is US employment numbers have a recent habit of changing in the following month(s), retrospectively so how true are these figures?
While I expect a crash, I am not looking for it..

 

[Knobby22]

Some interesting economic figures are coming out of the US, high debt but low unemployment rates, just enough to keep them ticking along.

View attachment 170485

View attachment 170486

Yes, and where is the irrational exuberance just before a crash? Not yet. ...maybe next year.

(Like to get a second opinion from Charlie Munger but have misplaced my Ouija board.)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

While I expect a crash, I am not looking for it..

sage words.

 

[divs4ever]

Yes, and where is the irrational exuberance just before a crash? Not yet. ...maybe next year.

(Like to get a second opinion from Charlie Munger but have misplaced my Ouija board.)

are we already looking at it ?

record highs , 7 stocks lifting an entire index in fact a bigger market cap ( combined) than several large nations ( combined )

i was too busy during the GFC to study it real time but to me whole national economies look to be awry and few people are publicly worried

 

[Knobby22]

are we already looking at it ?

record highs , 7 stocks lifting an entire index in fact a bigger market cap ( combined) than several large nations ( combined )

i was too busy during the GFC to study it real time but to me whole national economies look to be awry and few people are publicly worried

Still think we are climbing the wall of worry. And some of those 7 stocks are the future - AI is going to change everything.
When the interest rates cuts come and the US election is over - that is when I think we should be getting jumpy.

 

[wayneL]

US election is over - that is when I think we should be getting jumpy.

Someone did some stats and IIRC election years are almost always bullish FWIW

 

[mullokintyre]

Still think we are climbing the wall of worry. And some of those 7 stocks are the future - AI is going to change everything.
When the interest rates cuts come and the US election is over - that is when I think we should be getting jumpy.

Ai will change everything, but like most disruptive technologies, no one is quite sure what that disruption is going to look like, or even if the net of the disruption is for the good.
Some sectors will thrive, some will shrink, and some will die all together.
As some other famous bloke said, there are are known unknowns, and there unknown unknowns.
Mick

 

[TimeISmoney]

Trouble is US employment numbers have a recent habit of changing in the following month(s), retrospectively so how true are these figures?
While I expect a crash, I am not looking for it..

There are definitely a lot of people struggling in the US, and the homeless rate keeps on climbing. I guess low working hours and or pay cuts

Yes, and where is the irrational exuberance just before a crash? Not yet. ...maybe next year.

(Like to get a second opinion from Charlie Munger but have misplaced my Ouija board.)

It's either a recession or a soft landing, it's all part of the economic cycle that's been part of history for centuries. if you could predict when you'd be one of the richest people in the world.

 

[TimeISmoney]

i was too busy during the GFC to study it real time but to me whole national economies look to be awry and few people are publicly worried

I had thoughts about this the other day, we were much less connected with the world back then. Bad news travelled but it was a bit slower.

 

[divs4ever]

There are definitely a lot of people struggling in the US, and the homeless rate keeps on climbing. I guess low working hours and or pay cuts

It's either a recession or a soft landing, it's all part of the economic cycle that's been part of history for centuries. if you could predict when you'd be one of the richest people in the world.

that economic cycle has a selection of broken spokes and no amount of decorations can hide that completely , and every cyclist knows the risk of crashes they are a part of life

 

[Value Collector]

Ai will change everything, but like most disruptive technologies, no one is quite sure what that disruption is going to look like, or even if the net of the disruption is for the good.
Some sectors will thrive, some will shrink, and some will die all together.
As some other famous bloke said, there are are known unknowns, and there unknown unknowns.
Mick

Ai will have an impact, but it won’t change everything.

As a wise man once said when he was told the internet will change everything, he ask “will it change the way people chew gum?”

Here we are 24 years since the dot.com boom and there have been some big changes, but people are still chewing gum, eating chocolate bars, drinking coke, building houses made of brick, driving cars made of steel, buying homes on 30 year mortgages, paying their electricty bills, shopping at Woolies.

Technology advances but many things stay the same. The key is just to be invested if businesses that will continue being productive, and if you can avoid those being killed.

It can be deadly to try and predict the changes with the purpose of trying to invest in companies that will win during the change.