U.S. to crash?

[Uncle Festivus]

The US is crashing, it's only the afterglow of continuous QE that keeps it going, but you would never know it by the way 'retail' analysts measure economic recovery success by - the Dow Jones index?

Another measure - AAPL Apple - headline numbers look good but nearly all of it was from a one of to some stupid company buying 3 years worth of iPhones - hitting an air pocket soon?

Employment - those that know how the stats are calculated know that at best it's a guesstimate - there is a huge fudge factor put in as well as other fudges eg birth/death ratio etc - they probably actually lost a million jobs! The real unemplyment rate is closer to 12%, the total unemployed rate is closer to 18% - straight from the Feds mouth here - http://research.stlouisfed.org/pdl/458

This bloke knows the numbers and he's confused -



US Railfreight is going down

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Negative real wage growth.

House prices firmly continuing down on the second dip.

Baltic Dry Index is plunging - 1 shipping line is actually paying a customers fuel costs just to use their ships!

Then the Euro zone, China & of course the Japan!

Only those 'glass half full' types are blind to reality, but will have the biggest dissapointement when economic gravity, ie reverting to humanities mean, finally arrives?

 

[moXJO]

I can't be too specific, but something interesting regarding a recent tender at work. 3 tenders received, rough details as follows.

1. Australian company with product made in China.

2. Australian company with product made in China.

3. USA company with product made in USA.

Tender No. 3 won on both price and technical specifications, supported by the manufacturer's solid reputation. Yes, a made in USA product was cheaper than a made in China product, and we're talking about a significant difference.

I can't be any more specific other than to say "electrical equipment".

I'm buying a lot of gear out of the US as well as it's better quality and very cheap. I worry more about Australian industry then the US crashing. US policy is more dynamic and allows quicker change in direction coupled with a cheap workforce with even more coming out of Mexico at even cheaper rates and boosting the demographic. I'd bet on Aus turning to $hit before the US.

 

[Julia]

I'd bet on Aus turning to $hit before the US.

Goodness: better not tell Swannie.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Americans back to their bad old ways OR need credit just to survive?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers increased their debt in December by a seasonally adjusted $19.3 billion, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The increase is just below November's $20.4 billion pace which was the biggest gain in a decade. Monthly debt rose by a 9.4% pace in December, after a 9.9% pace in the prior month. The increase in consumer credit in December was much larger than expected by Wall Street economists. All types of credit gained in the month. The non-revolving category of debt, such as auto loans, personal loans, and student loans, jumped $16.6 billion, or 11.8%, in December. This is the largest amount since November 2001. Credit-card debt increased by $2.8 billion, or 4.1%, in the month. For the year, consumer credit rose 3.7%, the largest increase since 2007.

 

[drsmith]

US Railfreight is going down

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

It will be interesting to see if that trend continues beyond what appears to be a normal seasonal decline.

 

[Glen48]

Think the attitude of the average Yank is we are stuffed so lets go out with a bang spend up and not repay, beside the banks are caught up in Robo signing B/cards as well as mortgage's now they are offering those under water up to 30k incentive to sell for what they can get just to get the bad loan's off their books.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It will be interesting to see if that trend continues beyond what appears to be a normal seasonal decline.

Good pick up Doc . Although......

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Just when you thought that it might be safe to get back into the stock market...
The fly in the ointment this time: The Dow Jones Transportation Average is seriously lagging.
This is potentially worrisome from at least two different points of view. First, the Dow Theory, the oldest market timing system still in widespread use today, keys off the behavior of the Transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Aver. Joint new highs are considered evidence of a healthy bull market, while divergences are considered a warning sign of trouble.

And this -

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July.
That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-insider1.html?mod=topnav_2_3023

Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution

Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.
​

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Sorry, there's just too many disparities with what's going on in the markets and underlying data, so one more chart to confirm that the DJIA at least has gotten way ahead of itself??

 

[noirua]

Don't place your bets yet we still have Newt and Mitt ( the man who believe the world is 5k yrs old ) to show us their wares.

None of the USA president were any good , now they are say Roosevelt wanted USA to go to war so upset the Jap's by cutting off the oil supply and he knew of pending attack on Pearl Harbour so he could get USA in to the war if that is true is shows the depth some will go for power.

 

[SirRumpole]

Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.

'Get rid of this fear of missing out' ahead of looming share market crash, warns veteran investor

One of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a "super bubble" that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.

'Get rid of this fear of missing out' ahead of looming share market crash, warns veteran investor

One of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a "super bubble" that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting.

www.abc.net.au

I saw that headline on ABC Justin.

Easy to say. Did he put his money where his mouth is by shorting the market?

gg

 

[moXJO]

Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.

'Get rid of this fear of missing out' ahead of looming share market crash, warns veteran investor

One of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a "super bubble" that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting.

www.abc.net.au

I thought the same thing.... for about 4 years

 

[mullokintyre]

Jeremy Grantham has been mentioned quite a few times here on ASF, usually associated with bubbles.
He has now added the word recession to his bubble warnings.
From AFR

The slow-moving influence of rising interest rates will end up torpedoing the economy, dashing Federal Reserve expectations that a recession can be avoided, according to renowned Wall Street curmudgeon Jeremy Grantham.

Grantham, whose own forecast for a brutal market reckoning has taken lumps in this year’s tech revival, doubled down on the gloom prophesy in an interview taped for an upcoming episode of Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein.
“The Fed’s record on these things is wonderful. It’s almost guaranteed to be wrong,” said the co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, in response to a question about chairman Jerome Powell’s view that a downturn is avoidable. “They have never called a recession, and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles.”

Grantham, 84, is well known for gloomy forecasts that have occasionally presaged major market dislocations, such as in 2000 and 2008. He called the post-pandemic surge in equities “in many ways about equal to the 2000 tech bubble”, but said its deflation has been interrupted by speculation on artificial intelligence and economic stimulus that he linked to next year’s presidential election.

“Everything and its dog seems to have intruded,” he said. “It’s made life incredibly complicated. Personally, I think AI is very important,” he said. “But I think it’s perhaps too little too late to save us from a recession.”

Grantham is definitely a pessimist, but even pessimists occasionally get things right.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

or to put it another way


And here is another example of the irrational exuberance


Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

But wait, theres more!.

So who was investing back in 2008?
Hows ya memory?
Was it a good time?
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

But wait, theres more!.
View attachment 170469
So who was investing back in 2008?
Hows ya memory?
Was it a good time?
Mick

2008 and the GFC as a whole was a wonderful time to invest. I picked up some great bargains

 

[wayneL]

2008 and the GFC as a whole was a wonderful time to invest. I picked up some great bargains

2007 probably wasn't.

Where are we now?

 

[Value Collector]

1. 2007 probably wasn't.

2. Where are we now?

1. I bought in 2007 too, I buy every year since 1996, Not being A great market timer, I pretty much steadily kept investing the whole way through, I buy every year, but things kept getting cheaper for a while, then they eventually started rising again.

2. Feb 2024

I am buying every Thursday this year, and next year, and the year after that and every other year for the foreseeable future, If things get cheaper for a while, great news.

 

[wayneL]

1. I bought in 2007 too, I buy every year since 1996, Not being A great market timer, I pretty much steadily kept investing the whole way through, I buy every year, but things kept getting cheaper for a while, then they eventually started rising again.

2. Feb 2024

I am buying every Thursday this year, and next year, and the year after that and every other year for the foreseeable future, If things get cheaper for a while, great news.

1/ Expect market returns

2/ Ummm yeah, but that doesn't quite address the nuance of the question, but I'm sure you know that.

Why Thursdays?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

oh dear, missing post #78. anyway, reflects more on whoever than whatever