U.S. Presidential Election 2020

[Joe Blow]

With less than a week and a half to go until the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it's probably time to start a thread on the topic.

2020 has been one of the strangest years in a long time, and I have no doubt that the Trump/Biden election will play out in an unorthodox way.

Please post any predictions, comments or observations in this thread.

 

[Knobby22]

It better not be a close result. All hell will break loose.

 

[basilio]

What !! Not another endless political thread to beat up unsuspecting pixels on the the insanity called the US political system.

Give me strength ...

 

[SirRumpole]

I have an awful feeling Trump may win again.

But then , I'm usually wrong. This time I hope so.

 

[moXJO]

I have an awful feeling Trump may win again.

But then , I'm usually wrong. This time I hope so.

Biden still just ahead. So long as nothing comes up in the data dump, he should get the job done.

 

[Joe Blow]

What !! Not another endless political thread to beat up unsuspecting pixels on the the insanity called the US political system.

This election was going to be discussed anyway, better to have the discussion in one place rather than in multiple other threads.

And unlike most political threads, the outcome of this presidential election will move markets, so it will be interesting to hear people's views on the implications that either possible outcome will have for financial markets.

 

[Joules MM1]

It better not be a close result. All hell will break loose.

c'mon @Knobby22 ...it's 2020 all-hell already broke loose, just having @Joe Blow start this thread was big give-away on that .....

lanslide victory for mine

@Joe Blow can we start a thread similar to the monthly stock comp on who is going to win the US election?

@debtfree might be up for it

 

[moXJO]

I'll put Biden for the win and Harris for the steal.

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow can we start a thread similar to the monthly stock comp on who is going to win the US election?

I just created a poll in this thread where people can vote for who they think will win. Anyone who wants to bet on (or just nominate/discuss) winning margins etc. can post their predictions in this thread.

 

[Smurf1976]

My prediction is Biden wins but the process is messy with accusations of the vote being rigged etc.

For the markets I'm thinking a move up quickly followed by a significant top once there's a definite winner. That applies regardless of which side wins.

Confidence in that prediction = low. We're in very strange times - expect the unexpected........

 

[sptrawler]

I think Biden, no one can come through the media barrage Trump has had, without severe perception damage.
As for the markets, initially a surge as company earnings will be expected to rise, then a crash as the long term trajectory of the U.S economy sinks in.

 

[wayneL]

My gut feeling is Trump, perhaps it's just hope. I feel a Biden victory will mean a profound nose dive as the extreme left of the party exerts its influence.

 

[PZ99]

I think Joe Biden will win the election but Donald Trump will remain as president

 

[moXJO]

I can't remember any president that has had as big rallies and convoys that were self organised for a president. That also had to weather violence and real life reputation consequences for supporting Trump.

Secondly GOP is gone once Trump goes. Trumpers don't really support Republicans. Its lost in the wilderness for a long time if he loses.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

For the markets I'm thinking a move up quickly followed by a significant top once there's a definite winner. That applies regardless of which side wins.

Confidence in that prediction = low. We're in very strange times - expect the unexpected........

and the winner is...

 

[basilio]

It will be a unique US election.

On current polls Trump should lose in a landslide. Huge early voting figures and movements against Trump across the political landscape (Seniors, traditional republican voters, suburban women) all point to decisive Biden victory - on the votes.

On the other hand Trump has said repeatedly that he regards mail in voting as fraudulent and that Biden "can only win by fraud".

The game playing by the Republicans to date has been to
1) Suppress the early voting and mail in voting as much as possible through local ordnances and limited polling opportunities.
2) Undermine the postal service to slow down postal pre voting
3) Destroy public confidence in the validity of anything except a Trump victory.
4) Prepare as many strategies as necessary to muddy or stop counting of votes if, as expected, they show a Trump loss.

These strategies are all in play becasue , unlike Australia, there isn't an independent National electoral commission that takes responsibility for ensuring free and fair elections.

The most troubling outcome is a very strong Biden vote that is disputed by Trump and effectively causes a stalemate in the political process of deciding who is the legitimate President. From a business POV the uncertainty would be disastrous. On top of that the social turmoil of millions of armed Trump supporters attempting "to protect their President" is the stuff of dystopian nightmares.

If there was a truly overwhelmingly rejection of Trump it may be impossible to deny the reality of the votes. I think the recognition of the need for a truly overwhelming rejection of Trump in the face of his repeated undermining of the election is behind the very high voting figures and the substantial leakage of traditional Republican voters.

And through all this COVID infections and deaths will skyrocket as the administration has made it clear they are not trying to rein in the epidemic.

Trump aide admits 'we're not going to control pandemic' as Pence staff test positive

Senior aide Marc Short has virus but Pence will still campaign as US comes close to new daily record for coronavirus cases

www.theguardian.com

-----------------------------------------------
Some interesting observations of Trump by journalists, ex staff and his niece. They do point to a man who has no boundaries and will do what he has to hold onto power.

'Deep down, he's a terrified little boy': Bob Woodward, John Bolton and others on Trump

The authors of recent exposés, including Mary Trump and Anthony Scaramucci, on the president, his time in office – and what they expect to happen at the polls

www.theguardian.com

 

[moXJO]

I think I saw early voting was something like 42%

Wasn't sure if that was a state or national.

 

[basilio]

Nearly 60 million Americans cast early vote as record-shattering turnout expected

• People are ‘determined to express themselves’
• Candidates scramble to deliver closing message

Nearly 60 million Americans cast early vote as record-shattering turnout expected

Americans ‘determined to express themselves’ while candidates scramble to deliver closing message as election looms

www.theguardian.com

 

[wayneL]

and the winner is...

View attachment 113693

I think you're right. El Presidente doesn't pull the strings really, as per my other post on BIS, IMF, & WEF etc

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I think I saw early voting was something like 42%

Wasn't sure if that was a state or national.

an astonishing 52 million people have already voted.

.... we are going to see a record voter turnout in this election. In 2016 about 137 million people voted.

This year, we could see about 160 million people vote, and the risk is on the upside.

The total electorate is about 260 million.

In short, the enthusiasm to actually vote is through the roof (some say this is unambiguously positive for the Democrats)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-infrequent-voters-insigh-idUSKBN276196