TZL - TZ Limited

UBIQUITOUS said:

SKC, looking at your example of DTL, you appear to have a grave misunderstanding as to what drives the market to pay it's p/e multiple on a company.

It has taken me all of 5 minutes to identify why DTL trades on a historical p/e of 12:

• DTL has been profitable for 9 years - since 2002.
• In that time, revenues have increased from about $100k to $700m - a 7,000% increase.
• Before partying on the above, consider that after 9 years, they have only a NPAT of $15million
• This shows that after 9 years they are managing a net margin after tax of a whopping 2%
• The above should ring alarm bells. Quite simply, there is not enough fat built into the business to survive a substantial downturn in the business
• Obviously from the performance, this is not a growth stock. The management also believe this, or they would not be paying out such a huge dividend of 77cps (and those dividends won't last long at all!)
• This is why the market pays only12 x earnings. DTL is in effect a high volume, low margin operation and is valued as such. Kind of like how a distributor is valued.
• TZ is at the position DTL were many years ago when starting out, as in effect the TZI business was reset with the board changes. I doubt a single shareholder or management believe that they need a shocking 9 years (like DTL) to make a NPAT of $15.
• As for understanding P/Es, if TZ becomes just barely profitable and earns a single $1 in the current year and the share price hits $1 (market capitalization of $125m), then the p/e will be:
  
  EPS 1/125,000,000 = 0.0000000080
  P/E = $1/0.0000000080 = 125million!!!
  
  So, as you can see, valuing a company based on a p/e alone is nonsense, as in the above situation TZ would have moved from a $7 loss to $1 in profit, and end up with a p/e of 125million! Such an increase in earnings over 1 year and the company being worth $125m certainly wouldn't raise any eyebrows, and would probably draw in investors.
  
  However, by your logic, it would be millions of times overvalued!
  
  Good luck with your investing!
  

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Pommiegranite said:

Now if TZ capture this 'several'% ('5'%) of this market by 2013, it would mean that TZ would generate around $3.8billion in 2013.

So if we assume that 1/3 of this $3.8billion is our net profit (could be higher as Intevia is a very high margin product), then we have a net profit of $1.27 billion.

$1.27 billion / 70million shares (Increase on current registry) x Forecast P/E of 40 (Tech average for mature company - Google has a p/e of 50) = Share price of $726 US


Either way we end up with a share price in the hundreds and likely hundreds times current share price.

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Pommiegranite said:

http://www.marketheadquarters.net

Interview with David Feber just released. He answers all of those questions, and if his prediction of aquiring several % of a $50billion market over the next few years are fulfilled, then we are talking a share price of between $500-$1000. (Personally, I believe he is being conservative)

If you want to accuse anyone of ramping....accuse the CEO!

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Pommiegranite said:

IMHO , there are future billionaires shareholders in the company, of which I will be one of many.

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Pommiegranite said:

Combined with the other applications in a best case scenario, I calculate that 180 shares held today would turn someone into a millionaire in 5 years.​

Now if you're holding 6 figure amount of shares, surely that's enough to turn someone into one of Australia's richest?

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steamshovel said:

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=



"Relationship with Bear River Begins with U.S. Government Deployment"

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UBIQUITOUS said:

Doesn't that mean further commercialization?

US Government? Who are they? Certainly not an institution with the ability to increase budgets at will

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steamshovel said:

Yeah, aren't they broke, TZ heading for the bin, I guess

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steamshovel said:

Australia Post trials the TZ lockers with Pitney Bowes.

http://tz.net/sites/tz.net/files/TZ...elligent Lockers for Australia Post Trial.pdf

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UBIQUITOUS said:

No surprises there. Well done to those who have been buying. To those who haven't or won't - my sympathies

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TheAbyss said:

Basically they are IP (intellectual property) and venture capitalists. Comsec descirbes them as pe rbelow.

Main claim to fame appears to be a locking system for passenger seating in airplanes.

Some of their products look pretty neatthpugh and are bleeding edge imo.

Qualitative Analysis

Click Here for Company Strategy
Click Here for Company Wrap

Business Description
TZ Limiteds (TZL, formerly CED Australasia Limited) principle activities involve the development of intelligent fastening technology and innovative assembly enabling technology. The company licenses its intellectual property and provides application design and engineering services to support technology commercialisation in partnership with Textron Fastening Systems.

Company Strategy
As part of TZs growth strategy, the company acquired the PDT group in March 2005. PDT is expected to contribute with $USD 3m a year. In a move to gain competitive advantage; TZ was in September 2005 considering acquiring a Smart Materials supplier and technologist. This would vertically integrate for a new revenue stream through core material supply. With this acquisition the company aims to create a clear market differentiation and protect against future competitor response. TZ reported NPAT down 59.9% to $1.9m for the year ended 30 June 2006. Revenues from ordinary activities were $32.2m, up 76.81% from last year. Diluted EPS was 1.15 cents compared to 2.89 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $1.1m compared to $6.2m last year. No dividend was declared.

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marioland said:

They've got very good prospects with Australia Post and other clients, but to answer my own question, based on the fact that they still lost money this year, their shares were overpriced.

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UBIQUITOUS said:

Very quiet here of late. Capital raising announced but also included was ""The Company is anticipating a number of significant supply contracts"

We know TZ is working with Australia Post. We also know the Chairman says that this will be THE stock of 2012.

Exciting times for desperate shareholders. Anybody else thinking of buying even more?

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steamshovel said:

Yes !

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oldblue said:

It looks like you'll get all you want, steamshovel!

SP is weak; RSI is declining; not a lot of reasons for anyone to buy just yet, IMO.

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