TXN - Texon Petroleum

[Miner]

It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.

 

[Magic Man]

It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.

No news, AUT flying and a share price, even though holding up well but still disappointing does that i think.

 

[nioka]

It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.

Don't hold your breath. I doubt we will see the SPP price again without some very bad news especially seeing the jump in values with the take over action in the area that is reflected in the AUT and EKA values. I've been happy to buy more at 70c, a point that I considered near enough to the bottom.

 

[Sdajii]

If it goes up on a day like today I'm thinking it's unlikely to go below the issue price. We've had a bit of time since the shares were given out, and there have been some uncertain times between then and now. It looks like most of the people who wanted to take quick profit, or those who were going to be spooked into selling, etc etc have already sold. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go back below 70c. We topped 90c not long ago, I think that's a more likely target than 65c.

Not that I know anything of course, it's just Sdaji's rambling mumbles which could be entirely wrong.

 

[bbker]

Getting back to the production numbers, do you guys think these large declines are most due to the shale areas in EFS wells 1 and 2 being more oily or "oilier" when compared to wet gas/condensate areas? And therefore this appears to be the natural trend.

Or is it mostly because of the way Texon is dealing with these wells?

Or both, say 50/50. Or neither, due to what's down there -- or what isn't there!

The Credit Swiss report on Aurora's website has me wanting to favour the idea of the very former.

Look at: "Shale gas and oil production profiles have THREE distinct characteristics." on p26 -- "Early decline rates can be as high as 80% in the first year (and are typically higher in oil wells than gas-condensate wells).".

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1593-24849450/CreditSuisseAnalystReport

 

[nioka]

Getting back to the production numbers, do you guys think these large declines are most due to the shale areas in EFS wells 1 and 2 being more oily or "oilier" when compared to wet gas/condensate areas? And therefore this appears to be the natural trend.

Or is it mostly because of the way Texon is dealing with these wells?

Or both, say 50/50. Or neither, due to what's down there -- or what isn't there!

The Credit Swiss report on Aurora's website has me wanting to favour the idea of the very former.

Look at: "Shale gas and oil production profiles have THREE distinct characteristics." on p26 -- "Early decline rates can be as high as 80% in the first year (and are typically higher in oil wells than gas-condensate wells).".

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1593-24849450/CreditSuisseAnalystReport

Do we know yet what these declines are. It is early days and the results so far may be influenced by a series of events that will not be on going. Events such as experimenting with choke sizes for optimum levels of production, variations caused by initial early flows cleaning out drilling fluid etc. Lets wait and get the results and rely on the operators to get the best results possible. Speculating could lead one to have a glass half empty instead of a glass half full.

 

[bbker]

Do we know yet what these declines are.

EFS1: 1267 boepd -> 655 -> 632 (60days)
EFS2: 1228 boepd -> 551 (30 days)

It is early days and the results so far may be influenced by a series of events that will not be on going. Events such as experimenting with choke sizes for optimum levels of production, variations caused by initial early flows cleaning out drilling fluid etc. Lets wait and get the results and rely on the operators to get the best results possible. Speculating could lead one to have a glass half empty instead of a glass half full.

Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?

I'm sure they're trying to get the best results but I actually trust you guys more, even when you disagree with each other, like agentm and condog.

 

[nioka]

Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?

I'm sure they're trying to get the best results but I actually trust you guys more, even when you disagree with each other, like agentm and condog.

The rates available so far have not been assessed over a long enough period to determine the long term probability.

I'm suggesting that any rates of decline are speculation at this stage and that as the wells age there is most likely to be improved technology that will assist to keep that decline rate in check.

 

[bbker]

The rates available so far have not been assessed over a long enough period to determine the long term probability.

60 days is the accepted benchmark period.

I'm suggesting that any rates of decline are speculation at this stage and that as the wells age there is most likely to be improved technology that will assist to keep that decline rate in check.

It's all there in the averages. I don't think the flow rate can be increased without affecting the well's integrity, ultimate decline and EUR.

And yes, I know it's still early days for the other 2 EFS wells and the vertical ones.

 

[Miner]

Don't hold your breath. I doubt we will see the SPP price again without some very bad news especially seeing the jump in values with the take over action in the area that is reflected in the AUT and EKA values. I've been happy to buy more at 70c, a point that I considered near enough to the bottom.

Hi Nioka
I held my breath for ten days and here u go mate: TXN has commenced trading at 65.5 cents and lowest for today so far was 64.5 cents (Rights were issued at 68 cents). I am sure you have had plenty of opportunity to buy at 70 cents and I will do the same at 64 cents

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
TXN 0.650 -4.41% 0.650 0.655 0.680 0.680 0.645 527,966

 

[Sdajii]

Looks like I got this one wrong! I doubt it would have happened without the market going so poorly lately, but it did happen. Oops! -1 point to Sdaji.

Still holding, but wish I hadn't bothered with that whole SPP thing when I did Hopefully it'll bounce back from here.

 

[Magic Man]

Guys i have been disapointed with this stocks performance,, Isnt there an annoucemnet due out?? i ahvent seen anything.. I can see this going back to 55 cents if not lower due to mrkt sentiment, poor buying depth, no volume, and no GOOD news.. Thoughts

 

[bbker]

Guys i have been disapointed with this stocks performance,, Isnt there an annoucemnet due out?? i ahvent seen anything.. I can see this going back to 55 cents if not lower due to mrkt sentiment, poor buying depth, no volume, and no GOOD news.. Thoughts

Lack of news and delays + shaky market = people easily scared.

People also get scared by others getting scared who they see sell. Also treating it like a stock with buying/selling based on news time frame.

My perception

Otherwise read some technical analysis books.

 

[nioka]

Hi Nioka
I held my breath for ten days and here u go mate: TXN has commenced trading at 65.5 cents and lowest for today so far was 64.5 cents (Rights were issued at 68 cents). I am sure you have had plenty of opportunity to buy at 70 cents and I will do the same at 64 cents

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
TXN 0.650 -4.41% 0.650 0.655 0.680 0.680 0.645 527,966

You win some, you lose some. Holding your breath has proved successful and I believe you made a great buy. "Sell in May and go away" has proven to be the way to go once again. I'd like to buy more at these prices but have committed some serious money towards a new start up company that will keep me out of the market for a period.

 

[bbker]

3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.

It's said in one of the broker reports that the cost of each EFS well is $8-9 million. But if TXN's working interest is 82% does this reduce what the TXN contributes to the cost? If anyone could point out where this is indicated...

 

[estseon]

3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.

It's said in one of the broker reports that the cost of each EFS well is $8-9 million. But if TXN's working interest is 82% does this reduce what the TXN contributes to the cost? If anyone could point out where this is indicated...

Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?

 

[nioka]

Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?

I guess that was part of the price paid for getting the lease etc. A normal business deal in this game as far as i can work out.

 

[bbker]

Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?

It might be the best deal ever but if the well doesn't come up to scratch, 18% or around $1.5m could add up.

 

[boff]

3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.

And they followed that up with an announcement r.e. Olmos number 11 being drilled.

Which is great news because I'd just read this downer of a report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news
and I thought that perhaps the drop in SP wasn't just general market malaise but was drought related as well. Seeing as Texon is proceeding as planned with their drilling program I'm more confident that's not the case.

 

[bbker]

And they followed that up with an announcement r.e. Olmos number 11 being drilled.

Which is great news because I'd just read this downer of a report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news
and I thought that perhaps the drop in SP wasn't just general market malaise but was drought related as well. Seeing as Texon is proceeding as planned with their drilling program I'm more confident that's not the case.

Could be the case. It doesn't seem to be affecting Aurora's share price which is in the same geography but then a big projection seems to be priced into its premium.

Looking at weather forecasts for McMullen there's only a 20-30% chance of showers in the next few days.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ230