Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

divs4ever · Sunday at 4:17 PM

houtman said:
Sure, but that is my point, I want a base to work off, I'm going with M2 dropping causing lower inflation(with a lag)

All the Ifs and Buts can go sort it out behind the back shed, the ones left standing will have an influence but it's too hard to see those outcomes from here.

Could well be wrong and happy to adjust on the way through.

yes a big lump of flexibility in one's back pocket looks like a good plan

i am just steering clear of the US ( ever since Biden was elected )

good luck

Value Hunter · Sunday at 5:53 PM

houtman said:
I'm just a simple Monetary guy, I leave the Keynesian stuff for those that think governments can fix stuff.

If the QTM is correct, or at least vaguely correct, 2025 should be a year of low inflation in the US given it's theorised 12/18 month lag.

View attachment 194505

Inflation has two factors. One is quantity of money and the other is velocity of money. Quantity if money is therefore only half the story. If the quantity has stabilised but the the velocity of money picks up you can still get an uptick in inflation. Just for reference here is a velocity of money chart so people can make up their own minds what is happening with that:

Garpal Gumnut · Sunday at 8:59 PM

I believe Musk is not paying enough attention to his investments while he pursues waste in the Public Service. Tesla is heading for reasonably large problems, tariffs, competition from BYD inside and outside China, and a cutback in families buying fully EV vehicles.

At some stage he may be forced to leave DOGE in the care of his minions, Big Balls and other geniuses. Trump is good at befuddling his opponents but it is becoming obvious that he has bitten off more than he can chew. Without Musk he will not be able to achieve his aims. I don't see this affecting the US stock market yet, but we are in for a rocky ride without an end in sight.

gg

TimeISmoney · Sunday at 9:39 PM

Garpal Gumnut said:
I believe Musk is not paying enough attention to his investments while he pursues waste in the Public Service. Tesla is heading for reasonably large problems, tariffs, competition from BYD inside and outside China, and a cutback in families buying fully EV vehicles.

At some stage he may be forced to leave DOGE in the care of his minions, Big Balls and other geniuses. Trump is good at befuddling his opponents but it is becoming obvious that he has bitten off more than he can chew. Without Musk he will not be able to achieve his aims. I don't see this affecting the US stock market yet, but we are in for a rocky ride without an end in sight.

gg

A lot of famous people who influence the world are filming sending their Teslas back or selling them. Elon's public perception is slipping by the day, and even his workers have come out against Elon, Trump had to intervene and defund govt legal action against space x and Tesla.

moXJO · 2025-03-04T01:13:25+1100

Will peace in Ukraine give a sugar hit?
Feel like Putin is grandstanding a little too much lately that he's going to pull a Swan outta his bag.

farmerge · 2025-03-04T01:16:28+1100

moXJO said:
Will peace in Ukraine give a sugar hit?
Feel like Putin is grandstanding a little too much lately that he's going to pull a Swan outta his bag.

Well Putin (Putrid) has Trump (The Trumpet) in his back pocket. All of a sudden they are best buddies and Russia is no longer a world threat.

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

divs4ever

Value Hunter

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel

TimeISmoney

moXJO

menace to society

farmerge

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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

divs4ever

Value Hunter

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel

TimeISmoney

moXJO

menace to society

farmerge

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