Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

Australia and Canada have done this for years. Ours is $5 million.
I think Canada may have got rid of it recently. Trump probably got the idea off us. Funny its the same amount.

https://passports.io/programs/AU3

The UK is now looking to copy our superannuation system. We aren't too bad despite all the knockers.

no the South Americans were doing it decades ago straight after WW2 , if you had a big enough brief-case of money/gold ... 'welcome to our country' ( no matter what your nationality )

HAH the UK will mess up the superannuation just like our government is doing to ours now , it is a pot of money and the pollies will want it all later

all i can say is ... UK , BEWARE !

 

[Knobby22]

But there is so much bureaucracy and bull**** attached to our scheme that most of the rich people don't want to deal with the headaches. I assume the Trump version will be fairly streamlined and straight forward.

Probably just pay Trump direct!

 

[Ferret]

I think Trump's newly announced Gold Card visa program is a fantastic idea. I have been saying for years this is the type of immigration that countries like USA (and Australia need). You want people coming into the country who can invest millions rather than Indians coming to work at 7/11.

I'm not convinced.

They bring capital into the country but does this get invested into productive ventures or just push up house prices?

 

[TimeISmoney]

no the South Americans were doing it decades ago straight after WW2 , if you had a big enough brief-case of money/gold ... 'welcome to our country' ( no matter what your nationality )

They also do it in Australia, a guy I worked with came here for a holiday with his family in tow, applied for citizenship and got it because he cashed in his super as well as selling his house overseas, the conversion rate meant he got a stack of Aussie dollars and had enough money for 2 houses. The worst thing was he was only a labourer, had zero qualifications for anything.

 

[divs4ever]

They also do it in Australia, a guy I worked with came here for a holiday with his family in tow, applied for citizenship and got it because he cashed in his super as well as selling his house overseas, the conversion rate meant he got a stack of Aussie dollars and had enough money for 2 houses. The worst thing was he was only a labourer, had zero qualifications for anything.

in other words a financial genius , turned one house in an unattractive country into two houses in a better country ( AND didn't take ten years to do it ) , a bit of luck on the share market and he has replaced his super as well ( and outside the super pillaging system ) and no HECS debt

sounds like my Yugoslav uncle ( when he was alive ) in NZ saved and saved and started a little diner/fish-shop .. soon had 2 , 5 bedroom houses each on 10 acres of prime land and bought a new imported car every two years ( usually a new mid-range Jaguar ) and still don't know how he did it

 

[farmerge]

in other words a financial genius , turned one house in an unattractive country into two houses in a better country ( AND didn't take ten years to do it ) , a bit of luck on the share market and he has replaced his super as well ( and outside the super pillaging system ) and no HECS debt

sounds like my Yugoslav uncle ( when he was alive ) in NZ saved and saved and started a little diner/fish-shop .. soon had 2 , 5 bedroom houses each on 10 acres of prime land and bought a new imported car every two years ( usually a new mid-range Jaguar ) and still don't know how he did it

@divs4ever Ah that little diner/fish shop what a cash cow that must have been.
Akin to the local butcher's shop with Saturday's takings.
Never saw the light of day.
A bloke I used to work for had a piggery, all the pigs sold at the gate were cash, amazing just how many died on the farm when it came to an animal audit.

 

[divs4ever]

​

@divs4ever Ah that little diner/fish shop what a cash cow that must have been.
Akin to the local butcher's shop with Saturday's takings.
Never saw the light of day.
A bloke I used to work for had a piggery, all the pigs sold at the gate were cash, amazing just how many died on the farm when it came to an animal audit.

having been there ( at the diner ) for several weeks when visiting NZ ( in 1971 ), i still don't understand the 'secret sauce ' sure the food was good and fair value ( at the time ) and they smoked their own fish , they crushed any opposition for at least 20 years . was packed Fridays and Saturdays day and night ( and you could take-away )

 

[Value Hunter]

​

having been there ( at the diner ) for several weeks when visiting NZ ( in 1971 ), i still don't understand the 'secret sauce ' sure the food was good and fair value ( at the time ) and they smoked their own fish , they crushed any opposition for at least 20 years . was packed Fridays and Saturdays day and night ( and you could take-away )

If the food was no better than other places it could have been the location was excellent or they had great customer service.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

here we are again, confronted with the remarkable ability of certain posters to go

off topic​

 

[Value Hunter]

here we are again, confronted with the remarkable ability of certain posters to go

off topic​

That is how normal conversation works to some extent. For example when you are talking with a friend gradually topics can naturally bleed into other topics. Its not a professional debate club its an informal place.

Sure if a thread has veered off course for two pages its time for moderators to intervene but a certain percentage of off topic posts (maybe 10 - 20%?) is normal in any thread.

 

[divs4ever]

If the food was no better than other places it could have been the location was excellent or they had great customer service.

well having never sampled the competition i can't compare the food , the location was OK but they did have a long-standing reputation ( more than 10 years in 1971 )

but uncle DID buy ( nearly all ) of the fish straight off the trawler(s) and each captain knew what would sell ( to him ) and would signal him over to get the approval , but the steaks were fairly good ( and bulky ) and the chips were way better than ( most ) current french fries

but given the cash taken out of the business each year , it must have been the margins ( because apart from the cars , property and cruises they funded the son for the engineering degree at Sydney University )

how the diner got on after the uncle's death is unknown ( i assume he was still in charge of it near the end as he died on the ride-on lawn-mower , after returning from a cruise )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Good time for defence stocks

but which ones? .. it's a constant evolution, and sped up by events 'on the ground'...(and why USA may not disengage from Ukraine)

This is the next huge challenge;

General Atomics’ MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone hunts submarines in tests

Discover how the MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone is transforming anti-submarine warfare with autonomous tracking and high-altitude endurance.

interestingengineering.com

 

[houtman]

I'm just a simple Monetary guy, I leave the Keynesian stuff for those that think governments can fix stuff.

If the QTM is correct, or at least vaguely correct, 2025 should be a year of low inflation in the US given it's theorised 12/18 month lag.

 

[divs4ever]

I'm just a simple Monetary guy, I leave the Keynesian stuff for those that think governments can fix stuff.

If the QTM is correct, or at least vaguely correct, 2025 should be a year of low inflation in the US given it's theorised 12/18 month lag.

View attachment 194505

that might depend on IF the Trump administration converts the data to some semblance of reality

since some companies did 'forward-buying ' to front-run the tariffs ( what they do with that advantage will be a different question ) in SOME places price rises will be less , trimming the government headcount will raise the jobless numbers and MAYBE mobilize some cash in 401Ks and pension funds , lift SOME home prices outside of DC and New York

let's say home/accommodation prices 'normalize ' causing a small decline there , the policy should slow down ( illegal ) immigration

the big IF is will tariffs replace personal income tax ( at the Federal level ) not just be another tax .

i do NOT see a big surge in consumer spending ( but i have been wrong before ) will the US masses unwind their personal debt burden

the big money people see a MAJOR war as their only way out of this situation

 

[moXJO]

but which ones? .. it's a constant evolution, and sped up by events 'on the ground'...(and why USA may not disengage from Ukraine)

This is the next huge challenge;

General Atomics’ MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone hunts submarines in tests

Discover how the MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone is transforming anti-submarine warfare with autonomous tracking and high-altitude endurance.

interestingengineering.com

There's a lot. Also a lot of shifty ceos. Most things with AI ramp early for private investors. I'm hearing things scaling to $10+million in a matter of months and not just defense AI. After that though I'm not sure how fast they can actually continue. A lot of people spreading out in the start up stages.

Every country wants military AI. People are refusing to die for politicians and enlistment is bleeding. It's being rushed, so some big numbers

 

[farmerge]

that might depend on IF the Trump administration converts the data to some semblance of reality

since some companies did 'forward-buying ' to front-run the tariffs ( what they do with that advantage will be a different question ) in SOME places price rises will be less , trimming the government headcount will raise the jobless numbers and MAYBE mobilize some cash in 401Ks and pension funds , lift SOME home prices outside of DC and New York

let's say home/accommodation prices 'normalize ' causing a small decline there , the policy should slow down ( illegal ) immigration

the big IF is will tariffs replace personal income tax ( at the Federal level ) not just be another tax .

i do NOT see a big surge in consumer spending ( but i have been wrong before ) will the US masses unwind their personal debt burden

the big money people see a MAJOR war as their only way out of this situation

@divs4ever So if big money people see a major war, ww111, perhaps, then that flies in the face of The Trumpet bleating that US of A won't be getting involved in any disputes.
Blah, Poppy **** etc. US of A relies on a war somewhere to keep their noses above the waterline.

 

[TimeISmoney]

I don't think Trump is doing as well as he liked, he announced the Ukraine minerals deal 3 days before he had it signed up, looks like he blew it when he humiliated Zenlesky on national TV. I think there's more to come in this arena from other nations, diplomacy isn't just about bullying other nations into what you want, and he needs cheap energy if he wants to compete with industry manufacturing.

 

[farmerge]

Well I never thought, post 96 censored for using poppycock

 

[divs4ever]

Well I never thought, post 96 censored for using poppycock

that is AI for you

BTW military intelligence is an oxymoron so what does that make defense intelligence ( an even quicker stuff-up , perhaps )

 

[houtman]

that might depend on IF the Trump administration converts the data to some semblance of reality

since some companies did 'forward-buying ' to front-run the tariffs ( what they do with that advantage will be a different question ) in SOME places price rises will be less , trimming the government headcount will raise the jobless numbers and MAYBE mobilize some cash in 401Ks and pension funds , lift SOME home prices outside of DC and New York

let's say home/accommodation prices 'normalize ' causing a small decline there , the policy should slow down ( illegal ) immigration

the big IF is will tariffs replace personal income tax ( at the Federal level ) not just be another tax .

i do NOT see a big surge in consumer spending ( but i have been wrong before ) will the US masses unwind their personal debt burden

the big money people see a MAJOR war as their only way out of this situation

Sure, but that is my point, I want a base to work off, I'm going with M2 dropping causing lower inflation(with a lag)

All the Ifs and Buts can go sort it out behind the back shed, the ones left standing will have an influence but it's too hard to see those outcomes from here.

Could well be wrong and happy to adjust on the way through.