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ASX close to record high, led by CBA and Computershare.
Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Wednesday, February 12. The ASX 200 index is up 0.5 per cent to 8,524.9 points at 3.25pm AEDT, led by industrials and financial stocks, as global markets await US CPI data.
On Wall Street overnight, the S&P 500 index closed flat and the Dow Jones index rose 0.2 per cent higher. The technology-focused Nasdaq was in the red, off 0.3 per cent.
Cryptocurrency giant bitcoin is above $US96,000.
The Aussie dollar is trading around US62.95c.
I am sure Trump would happily sell California to Denmark, at the right price of course.This should get a serious hearing in Trumps cabinet. Seriously..
View attachment 193100
Help Denmark Buy California – Because Why Not?
Buy it from Trump, the bigliest crowdsourcing everdenmarkification.com Petition for Denmark to buy California for $1 trillion surpasses 200,000 signatures
A satirical online petition is catching the attention of both Californians and Danes alike.www.cbsnews.com
It's what US does to China that I'm worried about. We get more stuff from the US then they get from us. We can turn the screws.The tariffs will affect 10% of metal exports its the blow back from other tariffs that will really hurt us
I am sure Trump would happily sell California to Denmark, at the right price of course.
The rest of America would hardly miss it.
Mick
Turn the country red as wellI am sure Trump would happily sell California to Denmark, at the right price of course.
The rest of America would hardly miss it.
Mick
It's what US does to China that I'm worried about. We get more stuff from the US then they get from us. We can turn the screws.
the Democrates like the ALP here like to make it an issue nd virtue signal over it. yes only make things worth, cucks for big business, open the borders and allow for mass migration to pump up the house pricing & profits for large businessTrump actually isn't saying he will change wealth distribution other than to himself and fellow billionaires but he is saying he will cut government services to the lowest paid (already has) to cut debt.
No quarter in Trump’s war on captured institutions
What do withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, gutting the federal Department of Education, defunding UNRWA and the UN Human Rights Council, pulling out of the World Health Organisation, killing off DEI, trussing the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau like a chicken for roasting, shutting the US Agency for International Development and sanctioning the International Criminal Court have in common?
Through the blizzard of executive orders, the outlines of a unifying theme in the Trump presidency are clear. Donald Trump wants to end institutional capture in all its forms. Though his execution, aided and abetted by Elon Musk, may well be occasionally ham-fisted and certainly deserves scrutiny, the US President’s instincts are sound.
When a political, social, cultural or legal institution is established for a public purpose, and given power and resources for that purpose, it becomes immediately, and forever, a target for a range of groups that would use its power and resources for their own ends. Whoever the hijackers are, it falls under the umbrella term: institutional capture.
There are subspecies of institutional capture. When a regulatory body succumbs to the vested interests of those it’s charged to regulate, it’s called regulatory capture. When employees commandeer an institution to suit their own ends, it’s called provider capture.
Some organisations start out captured and get only worse. Like the UN Human Rights Councilwith Standing Item 7 aimed at one country – Israel – despite decades’ long and wicked violations of human rights by other countries.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong in the Senate at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman
Other institutions go bad over time; for example, when provider capture sets in. In Australia, the ABC is a prime example of what happens when employees and other insiders hijack a taxpayer-funded media organisation in the service of their own pet causes, including most recently Trump hysteria, anti-Israel coverage, the voice and climate alarmism.
The International Criminal Court is a textbook case of a legal institution captured by the politics of its employees and paymasters. The ICC has jurisdiction over its member states, meaning those countries that signed the Rome Statute that established the court. Israel didn’t sign up and Gaza is not a state. Yet ICC prosecutors issued warrants for the arrest of Israel’s Prime Minister and former defence minister.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong responded swiftly. Australia will always abide by “international law”, she said when arrest warrants were issued. But what if “law” is being commandeered for political purposes?
Unless Wong was talking out of both sides of her mouth, that means she’s committing Australia, as a signatory to the Rome Statute, to arresting democratically elected leaders of a country that is not subject to the ICC’s jurisdiction – should they set foot on Australian soil.
Well, last week the rubber hit the road. The ICC’s political exploits and presidential sanctions ordered against the court on February 6 raise serious issues for American allies – including Australia.
Trump’s sanctions – freezing all property and other interests in the US and denying entry into America – apply to “any person” determined by the US Secretary of State to have “directly engaged in any effort by the ICC to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute” the Israeli Prime Minister and former defence minister.
That might mean that if the Foreign Minister took any action to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu, should he visit Australia, Trump’s ICC sanctions might apply to her, and to any other government or police official involved in the arrest. We’re waiting to hear the Foreign Minister’s response to that conundrum.
The ICC screamed provider capture from its inception. The whimsical decision to sign the Rome Statute by then foreign minister Alexander Downer – not normally known for falling for fickle international politics – now carries potentially disastrous consequences for Downer’s successor, for the Albanese government and for our federal police, too.
Downer, who honourably now admits his blunder, says we should give notice of our intention to withdraw from the Rome Statute. There’s a 12-month notice period, kind of like a decree nisi marking a separation period in a divorce. If Wong doesn’t start the clock, then surely Peter Dutton will if he wins government.
There are other lessons from Trump’s determination to strip back the encrusted capture of public institutions by vested interests and return these institutions to what Trump sees as their proper purpose. And if they can’t be saved, then off with their heads, so to speak.
When no one is cleaning house, institutional capture enables dirty corruption and the perversion of its original objectives. Look at UNRWA, where staff members included Hamas terrorists and whose modus operandi has become the perpetuation of Palestinian victimhood.
Indeed, much of the horror and revulsion at Trump’s “Riviera” plan for Gaza is fuelled by Hamas and its allies not wanting the Palestinians to have peace or a better life. Hamas wants the Palestinians to remain a permanent refugee people controlled by them and devoted to their Islamist ideology – with any reconstruction money going to more tunnels, weapons and Qatari holiday homes for Hamas leaders. UNRWA and its supporters are Hamas’s useful idiots.
Trump’s critics may carp that he is ignorant of history, but neither is he captured by it. Why not consider whether Gaza can be transformed into a Mediterranean Dubai, or at minimum a boring backwater of peace? Any plan that strikes fear into the raison d’etre of Hamas and its ideological allies is worth consideration.
Similarly, Trump has called stumps on USAID, the 10,000-person, $US40bn ($63.75bn) foreign assistance agency that, for decades, has been accused and found guilty of fraud and meddling in the political affairs of foreign countries. As The Wall Street Journal noted last week, with $US40bn to throw about, USAID was bound to hit some good targets. But bad stuff was happening too. Republican senator Joni Ernst wrote this week about her efforts to uncover widespread fraud, USAID money being funnelled into the sex trade, into dangerous research at Wuhan.
That’s on top of millions of dollars reaching terrorist organisations. Not to mention provider capture steering USAID money into pet projects: LGBT groups in Serbia, a transgender clinic in India and electric cars in Vietnam.
Trump’s drastic action, shutting the doors on USAID and folding it into the State Department, has kicked off a battle between the executive, on the one hand, and congress and the courts on the other. That’s as it should be. Just as Trump is trying to rein in overreach at USAID, he too may be guilty of executive overreach.
Given the Republicans control congress, the best protection against executive overreach will likely come from the courts that Trump stacked when he was the 45th president. In 2024, the US Supreme Court threw out the so-called Chevron deference doctrine. Established by a differently constituted Supreme Court 40 years ago, the deference doctrine effectively instructed courts that government agencies, not judges, should decide how to interpret vague laws. That was a recipe for mission creep.
By overturning Chevron, the Supreme Court put the brakes on bodies such as the Environmental Protection Agency overstepping their remit. It’s quite possible the Roberts Supreme Court could become the main constraint on Trump’s executive overreach. Who knows, even Democrats may grow to love a conservative Supreme Court.
Whatever the outcome, no one should be surprised that President Trump’s first instincts are overwhelmingly iconoclastic. He campaigned on draining the swamp and up-ending the deep state. Pick a phrase, and he’s on to it.
Few have succeeded in stemming the left’s long march through the institutions. Trump wants to be remembered for giving it a red-hot go.
Whether Trump’s presidency will be characterised as creative destruction or just destruction will have to await the judgment of history. In the meantime, we should all take the opportunity Trump offers us to re-examine everything we currently take for granted about institutions.
I was expecting it. As I said during the election "it will be good for the US, bad for everyone else".Whatever the outcome, no one should be surprised that President Trump’s first instincts are overwhelmingly iconoclastic. He campaigned on draining the swamp and up-ending the deep state. Pick a phrase, and he’s on to it. Whether Trump’s presidency will be characterised as creative destruction or just destruction will have to await the judgment of history. In the meantime, we should all take the opportunity Trump offers us to re-examine everything we currently take for granted about institutions.
And keep going with this story.
Trump’s push for Ukraine peace up-ends convention but might succeed
US President Donald Trump, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraineis a triumph of pragmatism over wishful thinking, which is what is needed right now to end the three-year conflict.
For too long both Ukraine and Russia, not to mention the US, Europe and Australia, have clung to unrealistic expectations about what is possible on the deadlocked battlefield as bloodshed, slaughter and misery unfold every day. What Trump is doing is shaking up conventional thinking and exploring the art of the possible in seeking a deal to end a war going nowhere.
This means taking a carrot-and-stick approach to secure critical compromises previously refused from both Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. The risk Trump has taken is to offer concessions to Putin first without being sure what he gets in return. But if, after this bold opening gambit, Putin refuses to reciprocate with his own concessions then Trump and Zelensky can simply say no to any ceasefire deal
Putin is a far greater challenge for Trump than Zelensky, who wants peace and does not have the resources to continue the war indefinitely. Putin has the resources and the motivation to keep fighting. Russian forces are making small but steady gains, but these have come with a horrific death count and have delivered no larger strategic benefit. This is why Trump spoke to Putin before he spoke with Zelensky.
The central starting point of any ceasefire will be that the war is likely to be frozen roughly along the current frontlines in eastern Ukraine, give or take some kilometres traded through negotiation.
The question is what conditions Zelensky and Putin can agree to in relation to this.
The US approach, outlined by new Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth, is a bitter pill for Zelensky because it shoots down his unrealistic demand that any territorial concessions to Russia must be offset by a promise of NATO membership for Ukraine.
Putin began this war over his hostility towards Ukraine moving towards NATO membership and so it is – quite obviously – inconceivable that he would agree to a deal that includes a pathway to NATO for Kyiv.
But Ukraine clearly needs some form of security guarantee short of NATO to prevent an attack from Russia in the years to come. If Putin says no to this then a ceasefire deal is a non-starter.
Trump rightly says this is the responsibility of Europe, which needs to step up to guarantee Ukraine’s security without US troops.
This presumably means a peacekeeping force made up primarily of troops from European nations, which would be a more powerful deterrent than any toothless UN-sanctioned peacekeeping mission. Zelensky fears this is not enough of a guarantee from future Russia aggression, but he has little choice and, frankly, it is difficult to see Putin launching another invasion of Ukraine wjem French, German and other troops are stationed on Ukrainian soil.
Although a peace deal cannot include a future pathway to NATO for Ukraine, it is unclear if Kyiv would agree to Putin’s demand that it never seek one in the future.
Putin, in turn, cannot expect Ukraine to agree to any deal that does not at least provide it with some form of guarantee against a future Russia invasion.
This leaves the second key question of a territorial settlement.
Zelensky wants to trade the territory Ukraine now holds in Russia’s Kursk region for some of the land Russia holds on the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
Once again, the big challenge here will be Putin. In 2022 the dictator foolishly annexed four regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia – even though Russian forces did not have full control of them at that time. They still don’t, yet ongoing Russian sovereignty over these regions is one of Putin’s key demands for peace.
Trump will no doubt try to seek a concession here from Putin, arguing that any settlement that includes ceding Ukrainian land to Russia which Russia currently does not hold is a non-starter.
The big picture is that if this US-brokered deal comes off, Russia will hold roughly 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory.
This is an imperfect outcome for both Ukraine and the West.
But it is often forgotten that before Putin’s invasion in 2022, Russia and Russian-backed separatist forces already had effective control of 14 per cent of Ukraine. To lose an extra 6 per cent of land over a three-year war against a far larger and more powerful enemy would hardly be a crushing defeat for Zelensky under the circumstances.
But Hegseth is right when he says it is “unrealistic” to expect Ukraine to be able to reclaim its old borders and that without compromises the war will simply continue indefinitely.
For any ceasefire to work Trump still needs to extract key concessions from Putin on territory and on Ukraine’s security guarantees. If Putin refuses to give ground then the US should oppose any ceasefire.
It is too early to know if Trump will succeed, but his direct intervention has opened the first genuine path to ending this horrific war.
the greens are mostly in snobby areas also but with the odd social services hidden away who pretend to care about the poor and immigration. the Teals are the corperate communists cucks for the fossel fuel industry and dont have the social service center in there areasTeals are just the greens from snobby areas. We need actual independents. Teals were always a joke.
I don't want Dutton in power, I also dislike Labor a lot. It's a very bad choice this election. I'd be inclined to vote libs if they don't cause problems on China trade like they did last time.
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