Trump 2.0

[Knobby22]

Trumps tariffs on steel and aluminium will have a direct effect on a firm in Dandenong and also the aluminium facilities in Portland. (Not sure about other states)
Fingers crossed he lets us off them. I am scared he will ask us to do something else though.

We just paid them $800 million to expand their port facilities. Feels a bit like a one way deal already. If the USA needs the subs, we won't even see them.

 

[moXJO]

Yes, like the Teals Climate 200 and the Animal Justice Party.

Teals are just the greens from snobby areas. We need actual independents. Teals were always a joke.
I don't want Dutton in power, I also dislike Labor a lot. It's a very bad choice this election. I'd be inclined to vote libs if they don't cause problems on China trade like they did last time.

 

[JohnDe]

Teals are just the greens from snobby areas. We need actual independents. Teals were always a joke.

That may be the case, but they are still 'independents'.

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. An independent can be a senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Independent senators represent their state or territory and independent members of the House represent an electorate. Independents sit on the seats that curve around at the end of the Senate and House. These seats are called the crossbench. ​

​

Independents - Parliamentary Education Office

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. This fact sheet explores their role and how they can vote in the Parliament.

peo.gov.au

​

 

[JohnDe]

The initial reaction from markets was surprisingly muted. The Aussie dollar, Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Australian stocks mostly recovered from intraday falls even as the US dollar and gold rose.​

​

But when it comes to international trade, global markets may have been lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that Trump so far hasn’t done anywhere near as much as he said he would do.​

Markets complacent as fresh tariff risks loom from Trump’s plans

Uncertainty about US trade policy came back to the fore as US President Donald Trump flagged announcements this week on reciprocal tariffs and 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Both the steel and aluminium tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs – first announced on Friday – will be effective immediately after formal announcements on Monday and Tuesday or Wednesday respectively, Trump told reporters on Sunday.

The initial reaction from markets was surprisingly muted. The Aussie dollar, Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Australian stocks mostly recovered from intraday falls even as the US dollar and gold rose.

But when it comes to international trade, global markets may have been lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that Trump so far hasn’t done anywhere near as much as he said he would do.

He promptly cancelled 25 per cent tariffs on Columbia this month after it agreed to accept deportation flights.

With equal haste he delayed 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month after both countries agreed to strengthen their borders against illegal fentanyl and human trafficking.

Those concessions strengthened the perception that the US President sees tariffs as a strategic negotiating tool.

During the first Trump administration, Australia avoided being hit by a similar Trump tariff of steel and aluminium under a deal brokered by the-then Turnbull government.

But while less than previously threatened, additional US tariffs on China went ahead last Tuesday – prompting a retaliation from China that could yet see further tariff increases by the US.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese officials are building a list of US technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, hoping to influence the tech executives who are heavily represented in President Donald Trump’s orbit.

People familiar with Beijing’s strategy said the goal was to collect as many cards as possible to play in expected negotiations with the Trump administration over US-China issues, including the new tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.

Beijing has already said it is investigating Nvidia and Google over alleged antitrust issues.

Other American companies in its sights include Apple, Silicon Valley technology giant Broadcom and semiconductor-design software vendor Synopsys.

Trump warned last week that tariffs on the EU will “definitely happen” and “pretty soon”.

The outcome of a review of US trade policies due on April 1st.

It’s hard not to conclude that a global trade war is just getting started.

Franklin Templeton Institute head Stephen Dover says investors are bracing for significant shifts in the global economy as new tariffs threaten to escalate trade tensions with key partners, increasing the risk of a full-scale trade war that could disrupt supply chains and increase economic volatility.

Of course the durability of any tariffs remains in question.

However, corporate decision making will be complicated by uncertainty about whether the US is using tariffs as a strategic negotiating tool or whether they signal the start of a global trade war, particularly regarding capital investment, supply chain restructuring and hiring strategies.

“While some domestic producers stand to benefit from reduced foreign competition, companies that rely on tariffed imports- especially those dependent on raw materials- face profit margin pressures,” Mr Dover said. “While several pro-business policies have been implemented since inauguration, the unpredictability of tariff policy could dampen those positives.”

Dover underscores the commitment to restoring US manufacturing, as evidenced by proposed strong tariffs on Chinese imports and 10-20 per cent universal tariffs on all imported products.

“The administration’s actions, even toward allies like Canada and Mexico, highlight a serious push to increase domestic production,” he said.

Such a shift may also broaden the US stock market’s performance, particularly benefiting small-cap companies that operate primarily within the US and have limited reliance on international trade.

But unlike the 1930s, when Smoot-Hawley tariffs exacerbated the Great Depression, the US has a stable money supply, low taxes, business friendly regulations and a more effective Federal Reserve.

Dover says the Fed will act aggressively to manage any fallout from a tariff war.

“The Fed’s vigilance will be key, and we expect it to maintain a data-driven approach to navigate these uncertainties.”

US Fed chair Jerome Powell is due to present his monetary policy testimony in the US on Wednesday. US CPI data are due for release on Thursday.

It comes after the US 10-year bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.49 per cent on Friday, contributing to a selloff in stocks, after the unemployment rate fell and one-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey rose to a more than two-year high of 4.3 per cent.

“Markets dynamics remain driven by the evolution of the AI complex, the intricacies of US policies, and the Federal Reserve’ asymmetrical (dovish) bias,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Cross Asset Strategy, Fabio Bassi.

Recent volatility around DeepSeek and tariff jitters haven’t derailed his positive outlook on risk assets, especially in the US. Over the short term, he sees lingering volatility on tariff headlines before the April 1st trade review, but keeps his 6,500 as S&P 500 year-end target.

“Overall, we find the broadening of the AI theme and the broadening of the equity rally as positive factors for risk sentiment,” Mr Bassi said. “The uncertainty around tariffs will linger, despite recent delays to Canada and Mexico, and could weigh on sentiment, although we are open-minded regarding the final objective and the negotiation approach.

“Securing concessions from trading partners appears to be a key goal in the tariff negotiations and could prove crucial for Europe and China.”

A dovish Fed outlook wasn’t challenged by the US jobs data and remains an “anchor of our bullish outlook on risk asset” with the CPI is expected to further validate this narrative.

“A shift back to a story of soft landing with additional Fed easing will provide a further boost to sentiment, potentially also unleashing capital markets activity,” Mr Bassi added.

 

[mullokintyre]

A while back there was a court case where a Judge accused Trump of overstating the value of his land in Florida, Mar-a-Lago.
It would seem that based on the following listing, he may have understaed it.
But then, Judges in New York have always had a good handle on property values in Florida.
There will be some fool with too much money who will buy it.
New York Post
Mick

 

[IFocus]

If the tariffs stand against Australian exports to the US then an Australian patriots law should be passed that all Australian Trump supporters should be charged with treason and deported immediately to the US.

 

[mullokintyre]

If Trump is serious about protecting American steel , perhaps he needs to be somewhat selective in his tariff imposition.
Canada and Mexico account for 40%, but does he really want to piss off Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam et al?
Once again, i reckon its another bluff deal, and some compromise will be worked out.
The art of making the deal.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

If Trump is serious about protecting American steel , perhaps he needs to be somewhat selective in his tariff imposition.
Canada and Mexico account for 40%, but does he really want to piss off Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam et al?
Once again, i reckon its another bluff deal, and some compromise will be worked out.
The art of making the deal.
Mick
View attachment 193057

He has to pay for the many trillion dollar tax cuts and Musk’s help will hardly wet the sides of the money bucket.

I guarantee you tariffs are coming, and there will be a lot of them.

Look 50 seconds in for more details.

Monday Finance with Alan Kohler

News from the world of finance and business. Top stories in text, video and audio. Business video news bulletin. Features and analysis.

www.abc.net.au

 

[JohnDe]

He has to pay for the many trillion dollar tax cuts and Musk’s help will hardly wet the sides of the money bucket.

I guarantee you tariffs are coming, and there will be a lot of them.

Look 50 seconds in for more details.

Monday Finance with Alan Kohler

News from the world of finance and business. Top stories in text, video and audio. Business video news bulletin. Features and analysis.

www.abc.net.au

While you’re at it, can you give me the lotto numbers?

 

[Knobby22]

While you’re at it, can you give me the lotto numbers?

Is your brain hurting?

 

[JohnDe]

Is your brain hurting?

Sometimes.

 

[Knobby22]

Apologies. I should have detailed it. The tax cuts, less the amount given back by the repeal of green energy offset credits will leave a hole of 6.8 trillion dollar!!
This will combine with the existing government deficit of $1,8 trillion dollars!

Trump has to find money to fund all this. Doge can't get near that much saving, though I am sure Musk will do a good job.

Trump said he will achieve the money with tariffs. He has to do it or forget about the tax cuts.

The video is worth clicking from 50 seconds and watching the next 25 seconds.

This whole thing should be in the economics thread.

 

[mullokintyre]

Apologies. I should have detailed it. The tax cuts, less the amount given back by the repeal of green energy offset credits will leave a hole of 6.8 trillion dollar!!
This will combine with the existing government deficit of $1,8 trillion dollars!

Trump has to find money to fund all this. Doge can't get near that much saving, though I am sure Musk will do a good job.

Trump said he will achieve the money with tariffs. He has to do it or forget about the tax cuts.

The video is worth clicking from 50 seconds and watching the next 25 seconds.

This whole thing should be in the economics thread.

No amount of tariffs will help the US deficit.
They don't have an income problem, they have a outgoings problem.
Has been that way for decades.
Trump was just as guilt in the Trump 1.0 on increasing debt as everyone else before and after him.
And just as a checkpoint where did you get the 6.8 trillion dollars hole from?
According to US teasury forecasts as shown below, in 2025, the entire Individual income taxes expected to be collected is $518 billion, and $108 billion from Corporate income tax.
Even if they abolished ALL income tax, it would only add up 1 trillion.
So where does the other 5 trillion come from?
And while we are speaking of economics, tariffs do not raise as much if imported products are replaced by local products.
Mick

 

[moXJO]

If the tariffs stand against Australian exports to the US then an Australian patriots law should be passed that all Australian Trump supporters should be charged with treason and deported immediately to the US.

At this point people probably would go if given the option. It would only be through weak leadership that Australia gets tariffs.

 

[IFocus]

At this point people probably would go if given the option. It would only be through weak leadership that Australia gets tariffs.

The tariffs will affect 10% of metal exports its the blow back from other tariffs that will really hurt us

 

[Dona Ferentes]

That may be the case, but they are still 'independents'.

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. An independent can be a senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Independent senators represent their state or territory and independent members of the House represent an electorate. Independents sit on the seats that curve around at the end of the Senate and House. These seats are called the crossbench. ​

​

Independents - Parliamentary Education Office

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. This fact sheet explores their role and how they can vote in the Parliament.

peo.gov.au

​

dependant on Holmes a Court money

 

[JohnDe]

 

[Knobby22]

No amount of tariffs will help the US deficit.
They don't have an income problem, they have a outgoings problem.
Has been that way for decades.
Trump was just as guilt in the Trump 1.0 on increasing debt as everyone else before and after him.
And just as a checkpoint where did you get the 6.8 trillion dollars hole from?
According to US teasury forecasts as shown below, in 2025, the entire Individual income taxes expected to be collected is $518 billion, and $108 billion from Corporate income tax.
Even if they abolished ALL income tax, it would only add up 1 trillion.
So where does the other 5 trillion come from?
And while we are speaking of economics, tariffs do not raise as much if imported products are replaced by local products.
Mick
View attachment 193072

It's over a 10 year period. Check out the video. It's only 20 seconds. I did post a tax thing on another thread a couple of weeks ago.

Are those figures last year or future after cut?

 

[basilio]

Musk and Fraud

Friends,

The Trump-Musk regime is accusing federal civil servants of fraud, based on no evidence, while at the same time allowing corporations to pay off foreign officials, dropping bribery charges against Mayor Eric Adams, pardoning a former governor of Illinois who tried to sell his Senate seat, and stopping investigations into foreign influence-peddling in the United States.

In other words, Trump-Musk have declared open season on real fraud and bribery.

On Monday evening, Trump signed an executive order halting investigations and prosecutions of corporate corruption in foreign countries under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977.

Today, Musk held forth in the Oval Office, claiming that drastic reductions in the federal workforce were justified because it was rife with fraud.

I’ve spent more than a dozen years in the federal government, and I can tell you that the vast majority of civil servants I’ve had the honor of working with are dedicated and hard-working. They are delivering critical services to Americans and protecting them from corporate malfeasance.

For the richest person in the world to be given a bully-pulpit in the Oval Office to impugn their integrity is beyond shameful.

Musk has the integrity of a slug. Since Trump was elected president, Musk’s fortune has increased $270 billion. If you think that’s an accident, you haven’t been paying attention.

When Trump was sworn into office, Musk’s six corporations were under more than 32 continuing investigations conducted by at least 11 federal agencies, according to a review by The New York Times.

Most of these cases are now closed or likely to be closed soon, and the agencies that initiated them are being defanged by Musk and Trump.

Which means Musk’s corporations are worth far more because they are no longer restrained by the government. And as their major shareholder, Musk is the big winner.

The cases against Musk and his corporations include a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit accusing Musk and his corporations of violating federal securities laws and a lawsuit by the Federal Aviation Administration accusing him and his rocket company, Space X, of violating worker safety.

When SpaceX’s Starship exploded in January, raining debris over the Caribbean, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded the rocket program and ordered an investigation — latest in a series of moves by the agency against SpaceX.

“Safety drives everything we do at the FAA,” the agency’s chief counsel said after proposing $633,000 in fines for alleged violations related to two previous launches. “Failure of a company to comply with the safety requirements will result in consequences.”

Musk accused the agency of engaging in “lawfare” and threatened to sue it for “regulatory overreach.” “The fundamental problem is that humanity will forever be confined to Earth unless there is radical reform at the FAA!” Musk wrote on X.

While it’s unclear what changes Musk has in store for the FAA, current and former employees expect him to focus on the part of the agency that regulates his rocket company: the Office of Commercial Space Transportation, known as AST.

When Trump took office, the National Labor Relations Board had undertaken 24 separate investigations into Musk’s corporations for violating workers’ rights. But Trump has fired three officials at that agency, including a board member — effectively stopping the agency’s ability to rule on cases. Presto, Musk and his corporations are free.

Trump administration officials have also cut back scrutiny of foreign influence efforts aimed at the United States and replaced the top career Justice Department official handling corruption cases. Who knows how many investigations of Musk’s global enterprises might have been closed?

All we know for sure is that Elon Musk, the richest person on the planet, who’s accusing federal civil servants of fraud, whose young minions now have access to the Treasury Department’s payment system, and whom Trump has authorized to make draconian reductions in the federal workforce, will make tens of billions more.

This is what oligarchy looks like.

Robert Reich

 

[JohnDe]

Musk and Fraud

Friends,

The Trump-Musk regime is accusing federal civil servants of fraud, based on no evidence, while at the same time allowing corporations to pay off foreign officials, dropping bribery charges against Mayor Eric Adams, pardoning a former governor of Illinois who tried to sell his Senate seat, and stopping investigations into foreign influence-peddling in the United States.

In other words, Trump-Musk have declared open season on real fraud and bribery.

On Monday evening, Trump signed an executive order halting investigations and prosecutions of corporate corruption in foreign countries under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977.

Today, Musk held forth in the Oval Office, claiming that drastic reductions in the federal workforce were justified because it was rife with fraud.

I’ve spent more than a dozen years in the federal government, and I can tell you that the vast majority of civil servants I’ve had the honor of working with are dedicated and hard-working. They are delivering critical services to Americans and protecting them from corporate malfeasance.

For the richest person in the world to be given a bully-pulpit in the Oval Office to impugn their integrity is beyond shameful.

Musk has the integrity of a slug. Since Trump was elected president, Musk’s fortune has increased $270 billion. If you think that’s an accident, you haven’t been paying attention.

When Trump was sworn into office, Musk’s six corporations were under more than 32 continuing investigations conducted by at least 11 federal agencies, according to a review by The New York Times.

Most of these cases are now closed or likely to be closed soon, and the agencies that initiated them are being defanged by Musk and Trump.

Which means Musk’s corporations are worth far more because they are no longer restrained by the government. And as their major shareholder, Musk is the big winner.

The cases against Musk and his corporations include a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit accusing Musk and his corporations of violating federal securities laws and a lawsuit by the Federal Aviation Administration accusing him and his rocket company, Space X, of violating worker safety.

When SpaceX’s Starship exploded in January, raining debris over the Caribbean, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded the rocket program and ordered an investigation — latest in a series of moves by the agency against SpaceX.

“Safety drives everything we do at the FAA,” the agency’s chief counsel said after proposing $633,000 in fines for alleged violations related to two previous launches. “Failure of a company to comply with the safety requirements will result in consequences.”

Musk accused the agency of engaging in “lawfare” and threatened to sue it for “regulatory overreach.” “The fundamental problem is that humanity will forever be confined to Earth unless there is radical reform at the FAA!” Musk wrote on X.

While it’s unclear what changes Musk has in store for the FAA, current and former employees expect him to focus on the part of the agency that regulates his rocket company: the Office of Commercial Space Transportation, known as AST.

When Trump took office, the National Labor Relations Board had undertaken 24 separate investigations into Musk’s corporations for violating workers’ rights. But Trump has fired three officials at that agency, including a board member — effectively stopping the agency’s ability to rule on cases. Presto, Musk and his corporations are free.

Trump administration officials have also cut back scrutiny of foreign influence efforts aimed at the United States and replaced the top career Justice Department official handling corruption cases. Who knows how many investigations of Musk’s global enterprises might have been closed?

All we know for sure is that Elon Musk, the richest person on the planet, who’s accusing federal civil servants of fraud, whose young minions now have access to the Treasury Department’s payment system, and whom Trump has authorized to make draconian reductions in the federal workforce, will make tens of billions more.

This is what oligarchy looks like.

Robert Reich

He makes sense here -