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Trading the XJO with CFDs

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nice to be holding the post election pop .....why did the government stay in = coz the stock market allowed it......it's a bull.....better the d!ckheads you know than the d!ckheads you dont know

cfd BTO's are 16% and regularly sub 10% = players are more than 90% short overnights ......mkay
 
XJO.png


How bullish are you J?

I'm not saying this can't go on for a little longer but a few of my breadth indicators are starting to fire up!

I mentioned several weeks back I'm only circa 50% invested and that remains the case however the last few days have made me more and more nervous as I watch the market darlings sell off under the cover of a top end of town (couldn't help it) bank rally
 
kid hustlr said:
View attachment 94831

How bullish are you J?

I'm not saying this can't go on for a little longer but a few of my breadth indicators are starting to fire up!

I mentioned several weeks back I'm only circa 50% invested and that remains the case however the last few days have made me more and more nervous as I watch the market darlings sell off under the cover of a top end of town (couldn't help it) bank rally
Click to expand...

remain with the strength, still, i can see how the adv/dec print would be a pause for thought if we only apply a context of obvious-ness
if we apply a principal of structure the context maybe different, either story is as valid as each other within their own stories

keep in mind as we get to the top of the recent rush we were at election time, but we know that these things are subsumed by the major trend but that doesnt mean price cannot make new higher highs on weaker volume and then have higher prices force non-comittal liquidity to chase the bid, leading to a weaker higher high and eventually the adv/dec catches up with price, the advance decline does not always lead price, does not always lag price, always needs context..so the advance decline being a measure of commitment in toto does not always allow us to interpret in context when viewed thru one lens (print)...if we backtested the adv/decline we'll find instances where the indication held divergence but price kept going for many months then the adv/dec appears to rejoin the psychology of price plus the rotation of other areas of liquidity cross markets that changes the value of the index

another way of looking at it is this way: the orthodox elliott structure says an ABC can make new print highs even tho we usually see an A/low followed by a B/lift (lower high) finished with a lower C/low where the second low (C) is lower than A...in a fake new print high the B/high will exceed the previous high (start of A) with a higher low (C) than A and not be supported by the adv/dec line - the lack of adv/dec line progress is commensurate with that chase - so we see new highs but only supported by thin liquidity as the psychology of the market gets ahead of itself....the market remains in bull mode and is getting ahead of its perceived value ....this is normal in major trends

price can remain out of whack for extended periods and then fundamental changes add resurgence to an already belting uptrend

the bottom line is the levels we play not the evidence we weigh (oh, yeah, i did that!)

one thing i would say is when we got the post-election pop i pared back thinking that that would be a rotation and intently watched the screen for most of the first 20 hours to see the "sell this bar" signal..but it didnt come, tending to confirm the idea that not only was the existing government re-elected (with strength) but that the market has confirmed it's own uptrend that re-election gave permission for liquidity to come off the side-lines...this types of thinking is not really my forte but it all fits ..again, if you contextualise that into weaker highs in the adv/dec line you see fear that a chage in government would be detrimental and the money that drive trend was uncommitted...so now there are no excuses and if we see a lower high in the coming weeks in the adv/dec then sure that means we're in rotation mode...also keep in mind the cfd mass commitment to shorting this uptrend, not just occasionally but extreme positions as price rips new highs.....
xjo cumulative 210519 kid H.png
 
swimming the channel(s)
21day + 13week Twiggs money Flows are over flowing !
inserted weekly channel (which is also in a monthly bull channel)
new altime highs only weeks away at this pace, upon which, time for a smack in the moosh fora reset
xjo swimming the channels 220519.png
 
failure to follow thru with an impulsive lift and coming back inside what would normally be a pull-away event takes me out of the play, lack of bids to break thru offers and the extreme (70% BTO's) retail crowd does not bode well for honkers at the moment ....it needs to sow some doubt in the bullish crowd who should not be so bullish in this large pullback within the weekly trend....
 
the chop and lack of follow-thru allows price come back inside, even tho todays swing (completing yesterdays low) was slightly wider than the usually lifts on the way down it was not bey enoughmargin to consider we're close to a resumption of the major uptrend, plenty of tiny swings in between tho

hsi identifying rotations 240519 ii.png
 
$xjo
todays cash low is slightly shy of a standard pullback 1:1 ratio, lack of further selling look like a decent entry for longterm low (not withstanding the bs overnight swing)
 
Joules MM1 said:
that plan went to poopretty quickly, making this week hard for myself more time getting out of garbage longs than anything else!
Click to expand...
Unfortunate, but is what sometimes tends to happen, when one chooses to hang alongside Seng.
 
aus market hangs in tough as leading small indexes cue that major indexes had been doing all the heavy lifting, my go-to SML hgh beta index has been a very good tipper on 'primary' trend action

xjo versus US leading smalls 310519.png
 
happy bids on extreme sell-side sentiment in pos's for retail cfd's

forgot to add this observation for the long idea:

xjo rare 238 040619.png
 
up close look at the rba rotation (at the base of the channel)
liquidity expanding tonight...... at least a relief bounce in $spx/$dax + PM's ripping north
xjo rba action cfd 040619.png
 
spx 15 review 050619.png
US/Aus indexes looking healthy
NZ market is probably in a larger rotation now the 10k level has has hit and is being retested, there's probably a sense of stretched value in that market

nz daily retests 10k 050619.gif


spx 15 review 050619.png
 

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