Trading the XJO with CFDs

[Joules MM1]

if everyone is looking for a rotation at the same level ($spx cash 2820's) then all the pros have to do is withdraw buying at those levels, sellers conviction rolls in, pros get to buy at discounts, sellers get trapped

same with technical dispostions, if the bias is set for a "something something big thing" that exists in the ether of ones brain then technical signals will also do as a surrogate reason to get heavy to one side and get comfortably trapped in that direction

not to confuse with this single idea that all technical signals cannot denote absolute direction at any one time, they can only confirm to you your own bias

when is a rotation simply a resistance in a larger trend - and selling a (non-existant) top - confused with a reversal to a downtrend ?

on the basis of "you're right but you're dead right" ...secondary signals (and better to have a 3rd) are always required to confirm a reversal to a downtrend
.....not seeing those, just seeing this:

 

[Joules MM1]

in the cash the 100% of the nearest larger pullback is 5995's .....that makes sense, esp if the pros decide to hold back on purchases for discounts

todays high at the ratios in the above chart are well held
STO's small size

a rate cut is likely an uber punch in the face for STO's when/if it comes
+ retreating #AUD/US$ bringing in a lot of o/s liquidity to local stocks (*.70000's looking a low swing oppo)

#RBA

 

[Joules MM1]

nope.......umm....91% STO's.....not me !!

 

[Joules MM1]

 

[Joules MM1]

wont be precious about it, small swings in a slightly larger rotation with honkers breaking a tight channel

this is the swing i thought would occur yesterday

 

[Joules MM1]

no bid

next level opens to 6185's cash

 

[Joules MM1]

the cash previous larger retrace (the first one just above the major daily rotation), sits at 6120 and very close to a minor 1:1 ratio of yesterday
the swing from todays low lacked impulsitivity even tho the move was "clean"
i suspect tomorrow we'll revisit down to 6120 area (currently 6159's implied cash afterhours) making a consolidation

sentiment took a decent swing too currently 42% longs afterhours, as high as 62% yesterday, when we get back to the daily high zone around 6270's reviewing the sentiment will tell us how much the ardent bears have given up, at which point we should also see an acceleration upside

or not ...nothing set in stone until it's on the left-hand side of the chart and then its opinion+print

 

[Joules MM1]

6060's now appear the nearest target for a un upside rotation $xjo

 

[Joules MM1]

@Modest @kid hustlr

looking back of recent updays, retail were uber bear.....

now theyre buying the dip.....

i think we have a few choppy down days to go...at least that's my lean until spiked out

 

[Joules MM1]

lean coming

 

[Joules MM1]

.... when we get back to the daily high zone around 6270's reviewing the sentiment will tell us how much the ardent bears have given up, at which point we should also see an acceleration upside

...

after getting smashed out of yesterday STO's, forced into BTO's that acceleration has arrived
i decided it was worth the efffort to go late and see how the US was fairing, lots of impulsivity across major indexes
...and back to normal viewing with retail being 24% long $xjo cfd (sp200)

 

[kid hustlr]

after getting smashed out of yesterday STO's, forced into BTO's that acceleration has arrived
i decided it was worth the efffort to go late and see how the US was fairing, lots of impulsivity across major indexes
...and back to normal viewing with retail being 24% long $xjo cfd (sp200)
View attachment 93174

J,

is this the final 'i give up' push where the index rallies hard for several days and a medium term top is made?

 

[kid hustlr]

J,

is this the final 'i give up' push where the index rallies hard for several days and a medium term top is made?

I also note the participation is not strong with XJO + 0.8% vs XSO 0.1%

 

[Joules MM1]

I also note the participation is not strong with XJO + 0.8% vs XSO 0.1%

suprises me how well we've gone uphill in a short period of time, much like the march 2003 takeoff

been uber bullish todate but need a reprieve/reset.....but back then those swings were relatively shallow...the 6060 level i was looking for is only a standard dev 23.6% typical of bull legs....it'll be fast

 

[Joules MM1]

mixed bag of nuts, def not a usual bid day, some climaxes

back in sells

 

[Joules MM1]

cash signal, inverted ratio 127.2% ..explosive trap set yesterday ?

 

[Joules MM1]

harmonic, rare, tradeable

stop 6136 if holding for the break of 6101
#diary

 

[Joules MM1]

as gold is setting up a strong move in either direction from compression with matching ratios both sides i have given little attention to $xjo today altho placed small size longs after basic ratio res was taken out this morning...looking like a 3rd leg upwards, note the need of sellers to get set short, not usually a good sign for them, a contra signal at its best, shall wait for this first leg to consolidate to find a location to size up
....right now, along with honkers (low ratio 1:1) both indexes looking bullish az

 

[Joules MM1]

part ii
cash look at the construction, impulsive legs up, correcting legs down

 

[Joules MM1]

#diary #observation #context #sizedmove #edu #typifyingsize #appplication #dax #xjo

EOM window sweep, cash rotates in a typical 127.2 extension inversion
127.2 rotations are contextual to the time frame, that means, if the daily extension rotation occurs at 127.2 it's significance is to that time frame, in this instance in fridays late arvo rotation on a 1 min basis it can be given relative size of the opposing move and unlike the daily size it does not affect the larger play

this is a high to low to high inversion (100% + 27.2)
"window dressing ends" high > low > high

now compare that to this move in the $DAX a structural extension having large ramifications for the coming months