Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the XJO with CFDs

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retail cfd's are 91% short at 11.27am

"so, heeeeerrr am i sitting in my tin-caaan, faaaar faaaar awaaay xjo is green and there's nothing they can doooo......"
traderziggy

edit: make that 92% at 11.30am !!
 
the daily channel in the cash $xjo breaks its baseline at 6192's, based on that and a basic ABC ratio i am trading down to 6112's unless an impulsive rotation takes hold
 
fondues back in style, melt-up

retail cfd's running 12-14% longs (lots of learning curves going on there, still have flashbacks to 2003/4 !!)
 
the bull is in trot mode, all the pulls are shallow and fit the trend very well

retail STO cfd's remain extremely dumbly elevated consistently 85-90% range
 
it is also a reality that the most cash is often raised just after a low has printed in an index, as the index rises that cash pile is often lifted as price is seen as the best get-out likely to be achieved before the financial tsunami really kicks in

conversely managers are the most committed at the peak of a bull that's going to go on forever and those managers carry the least amount of cash, they buy every bargain fake dip as the index(es) go down

ASX200 has been in a bear market since 2007 and a probability of a new government if the index revisits recent weekly lows in the large upchannel but the index is not reliant on what politicians do, the opposite is true, politicians are reliant on what a bull market can do to keep them in power which answers the question how come Australia has had such a large PM turnover compared to New Zealand which has a far smaller population and smaller GDP - the answer is 'which part of the multi-centurial bull market are they in?' take a gander at the NZ50 for insight if you can find a chart that displays when the current decadal run began

i think the local election has been called because the timing is right to do it, but, timing in a new bull phase is fickle because a strong dip back to retest the low can coincide nicely with electorate being fed-up with more bad-news outlook, just a few weeks in a dipping bull is a mighty long time for a poorly-polling government, a price level can be set where we know the election will swing irrevocably

until both XAO and XJO make new altime highs we can consider we are still, technically, in a bear market that's "in a rally" - i think this is not the case and think we are well into the first major leg of a very strong uptrend that'll take several years to play out, each dip only serves to engender more fear about the unknown mostly because we are topical creatures affected by the topical-ness of media, whereas endogenous trends move on despite events, an endogenous trend is not reliant on suddent bullish events it is always ahead of those events, therefor, while people pile into cash for the next big calamity they are doing so on a guess work and sometimes that guess work will pay off but the truth is that when the crowd is the most ardent, the most committed to a story that hell-in-hand-basket is "so happening sometime next week or month or next quarter or next year"
that crowd is usually wrong - scared for the right reasons does not default to making making the right transactions

the stock market is an expression of fear or greed - the longer one has been in a market does not relate to that market it only allows that person to justify their reasoning, they express their fear thru emotive reasoning

it is also fair to say that as Australia has been in this dirth of a funk is so long (12 years !!) without a new altime high to cheer on, the 2003-2007 bull phase is all-but forgotten
our politicians are uptight as many in the population feel, we're surrounded by idiots in other governments in other countries, but, all of that was true in 1974 thru 1980
so the current period, democratic processes are eroded, it's all bad news, new uptrend fight thru the veil of bad news, pundits of the next hell-hole rationalise every dip as the start of the next big diving thing and then ignore the next higher high in the index or rationalize its the best price to exit at
it's the classic sign of exhaustion with dealing with a nurtured fear, the selling becomes less about actual pricing and more of the tiredness of dealing with the fear of all the doomy stuff

projecting ones fear of a bear into the future based on the past takes a lot of educated skill, however trends do not take skill, they only require a point of exhaustion and that point of exhaustion comes when the mass are on the wrong end of the swing and the mass has a peak opinion, the opinion is at a crescendo and sentiment is always dragged behind price, always has and always shall, peak pessimism at the bottom, peak optimism at the top

if there is a (paraphrasing) banker out there somewhere that has not rec'd any calls from his high-nett-worth clients and theyre in cash and he's advising staying cash and retail cfd's at averaging 85-90 short the sp200 its a pretty good signal there's a stampede going on to get out to stay out
its the inverse stampede you see at the top of a bull market, everyone is predicting more of the same thing only worse (bear) or better (bull)

i have never been convinced that investors set themselves into cash to cash in on the next major bull market, no, they set themselves in cash because they fear loss but they nearly always do this at the wrong end of the gig, they are attempting to forecast thru emotive logic

time, the only thing that cannot be bought or sold, only wasted
 
$HSI cash printing a nice down bar, if closing weekly bar is lower than last week (despite shortened week) then the odds of closing the gap is very good, the current bull phase requires a retracement, probably

hsi 150419 rotation.png
 
technically, $xjo is on a break-out with a close at todays high 6390's (printing HH is not enough)

the momo i was expecting* should keep up for a few more sessions as we are in the middle of a construct for higher prices

$$

"..she'll promise you more than the garden of Eden
Then she'll carelessly cut you and laugh while you're bleeding
But she brings out the best and the worst you can be.."
billy joel
 
$xjo
Posted on [URL='http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/04/26/asx-200-breakout-3/' said:
April 26, 2019[/URL] by Colin Twiggs]
ASX 200 breakout
ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450.
Click to expand...

...
Long-term (LT) target for an advance is 7400 but I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest in the...
Click to expand...

http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/04/26/asx-200-breakout-3/
 
kid hustlr said:
Lol twiggsy is great but he's been bearish since December!!
Click to expand...

defensive
a good sign for ascention
...if he was as super bullish as i am i'd be :sick:

when the well :bookworm: are a bit :turtle: and a bit :nailbiting: about the bull train and become easily :wideyed: about all things remotely brittle and :chicken: about getting a fiscal :blackeye: while remaining a logical :angelic: and :bookworm: judicious investor then the bull may have a very long way to go before they become :happy: initially, yet miles away from the illustrious signs of :cigar: let alone being :greedy: which leads to the :cat: that stole the milk and became :woot: and :wacky: and:troll: eventually leading to more of :cry: and that's what he's concerned about

#skepticism
 
time to correct the upleg, 6160 basic pullback down to 6030's
a shallow pullback "fits" the monthly trend but there's no rule

channel broken, first leg completed, value lower down

xjo breaks channel for reset 070519.png
 
Seeing it the same J,

I personally think the trump stuff is noise.

- Significant resistance level
- Bearish behaviour on a key fundamental trading day
- Election risk off?
- Market leaders / Golden Momentum stocks looking fragile (imo)

May take some time to unwind/play out and we may actually get a sucker punch higher (in which case I'll be watching breadth closely for divergence) however I think we go lower from here.

All part of a natural bull move - I'll maintain some stock risk but have adjust my filter as of today to neutral.
 

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