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Trading the XJO with CFDs

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a move back above yesterdays cash high would be a good qualifier to hold small size overnight
when honkers opened it took a small hit then began to climb, the euro/us scene not as impactful in asia

risk defined
xjo risk defined 180719.png
 
not surprising a compressed dont-wanna-do-anything sesh

that means we'll skid south when the cash is closed unless euro zone goes bid

hanging onto dax sell
 
ha, no sell, with the bid

price doing all the talking, sentiment remains rank to the sell side, much further to go north

xjo refuses to sell onights 190719.png
 
on a down day today
we're in frothy territory but unless/until the current daily upchannel snaps these swings remain constructive bull trend activity
 
was a good day to sit on a short with zero signals for a long, however the dees 2018 channel is not (yet) broken even with a throng of retail voices calling a top
$xjo

a protective sell after a new altime high (which itself doesnt mean squat) with a strong sell in the US would appear a normal set-up - not a bear market - and very few ever pick a top that hails a bear market - understanding the difference defines hanging in too long and selling (equities) too early

a little bone of contention about channels
the whole gist of two lines to draw a channel is to isolate where and when to exit, but it misses the construct of a trend, to get to that construct one must define how the construct is - well -constructed
and to do that we must first define that a channel is not point a to point b alone, it is from the confirmation point to the next confirmation point, therefor this channel is taken from the first significant pullback that becomes the confirmation that the upside has a reliable construct and the base of the channel has two further confirmations, price may and often does exceed the roof of the channel but it should not close below the channel floor in the space of 2 bars (yesterdays open and todays close)
if we were to take the channel from the first price then we do not have any consistancy or evidence that we are doing anything more than picking an ongoing random price above the entry point so there is no reliability and it negates any value in trying to "box" what price is doing

xjo channel 050819.png
 
snapped out of the channel in a major bull run

money on the bid side at this mornings low, but, not a great time to be precious on any moves
a 33% kick back would be a normal rip...sloowww rip

xjo btfd 33s 060819.png
 
All is well if the trade balance news causes a rally. I don't feel it will though. Good news that is heeded signals market health and balance; good news which is ignored is bearish, as you know.
 
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first basic % roll up is passed, short covering en mode and quiet accummulation when supply dries up

cat on a hot tin roof approach ....but lean into it when allowed

xjo btfd 33s reload w cash iv 060819.png
 
and a follow-thru sell signal
price almost hits the 38.2 on a simple ABC where C = A at 100% (ratio of 1:1 symmetry)

xjo btfd 33s reload w cash iv ABC ratio 060819.png
 
failure to get an impulsive bid or break basic 38.2% return, prints a simple abc against the downswing, allows for small overnight sells to remain......clearly we have broken the channel i've been listing, so now have a basic sideways/downward swing that is correcting a very strong bull leg

one should be aware of conversations that serve to set-up emotive logic
account killers
 

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