Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the XJO with CFDs

Jump to new
even with recent unusual deflation in the UK and retail worst since 2009 in the US, local $xjo shrugs off the urge to sell

retail cfd's remain 67% STO ....while $dax slumps south with $spx (cash) ..both likely to retest 50% ish of the daily upswings from deec 27th
 
you gotta right to fight to party ....but, maybe not sell daily uptrend when the crowd is with the bid

xjo all clients 190219.png xjo all clients 190219 ii.png
 
#rotation

looking for $xjo 5955's cash for a shallow pull
not precious on reach...pros would likely trigger 5800's as a roundish target
xjo channel rotation 20219.png
 
#wow #trap
(as in the original meaning of 'wow' !)
uber bullish market $xjo ......forcing into plays and out of plays
 
if the simplest tenet of trading the direction of the recross of the opening price would stop this
xjo all clients 220219.png


the failure rate of trading with the retake of the opening price is considerably smaller than the success rate depending on how long youre in the trade for and your target(s) ..this is one way of rebalancing trade disposition......

today: when the xjo opens and swings low then retakes the open price that's the direction the strength is, especially when the retake* is an impulsive move

whether just that day or part of a trend, the trend needs highest bias, esp when the retail crowd is emotively driven in the opposite direction

*(think of it as a break-out) while there may not be a follow-thru it would stop a trader from being stranded if disposed to the opposite direction of the major trend

a trader should consider logging this action over the next 'n' to get a decent sample of the use
but more than just as a trade tool, think of it's best use, the refocus out of directional bias and lower the risk that bias entails

that's polite rhetoric for pull your head out of your @rse and get correct focus
 
cynic said:
May not need to. The client sentiment screenshot, in post #347, looks like it was captured from the CMC Markets platform.
Click to expand...
I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.

Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?
 
moXJO said:
I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.

Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?
Click to expand...
That seemed to be happening with many OTC CFD/Forex providers years ago, and for many years, I abandoned the practice of using stop orders, on account of such nefarious behaviour.

In more recent years, I heard rumours from a number of people working within the industry, that some of the larger players had cleaned up their act. However, I wasn't personally game, to put this to the test until very recently.

Last December, I decided to brush years of dust off, one of my old, stop order reliant, strategies, and put it to a small test, with one of CMC's forward CFD products, namely EUR/USD - Mar 2019.

I am happy to say that, the strategy has enjoyed smooth sailing for most of the quarter, and is currently on track for realisation of a respectable percentage profit, upon expiry of the March quarter (due in 15 days time).

This could never have happened with the type of price behaviour I repeatedly experienced during my earlier years of trading OTC derivatives.

I haven't been game to test this on the cash products of any providers, largely due to the lack of an independent exchange against which any pricing might be verified.
 
moXJO said:
I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.

Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?
Click to expand...

it is clear from the sentiment readings that cfd's are a way to guess the way out of funds !

it is still true that naivety with overnight positions is still the same schtik

you can run a demo account and it is now spot-on as a cash account, what you get is what you see, however, same as before, no volume and no absolute correlation to the cash (in the instance of $xjo or metals) in extremes cfd price typically overshoots due to the pool in the cfd and depending on how you have the bar/spread set (b/m/o)

but mostly the game of knowing wtf youre doing has not changed .....and that's mostly the truth

yeah the spread is more expensive than some contracts sure but contracts are whole singular amounts cfd's can be run in fractions

there's a guy getting a lot of sympathy on twitter who was running a deriv on fx pairs and got spiked out
so this guy is typical of many traders i've seen over the years, blames the platform, he's got 20k and (get this) he shows a screen shot, no bad data, leaves a fx trade overnight and gets closed out with margin call, loses all money, doesnt say he has other pos's open either, so he's clearly put too much on and too tight on price width, says platform wont respond, gets close to libel comments about them, nearly all the sympathy he gets comes from other trader wanting his tiny cap .....this is classic stuff....

suggestions that shorters in an uptrend is hedging is non-sense, it's not options, the margin is just too high for it, players nature doesnt change when the instrument changes

this morning shorters sp200 went to 83% ...... :pompous:

now watch me make this putt
 
edit

i agree a dom watch would be a good idea better entries/exits ...no vol on cf'd

exploring that now
 
here's a clear mismatch of the cash versus cfd

the same swing as a price length in the cfd is longer than the same swing in the cash
however both adhered to common ratio legnths, in other words, the discrepancy is not as important as the lengths of themselves, just because the cash is shorter than the cfd (or viceversa) doesn mean it invalidates either measure, whereas, i argue, it infers symmetry in the auction, in other words, both groups are in agreement but in slightly different liquidity, so long as the one has a clear measure (in both is rare) that is in context with the prior structure then it is higher prob that price will rotate within that size play back to the larger swing (today it's up)

secondly, what makes a long at the 6188 a low risk entry (at least we know .51cents below is incorrect)
the 6188 level is also a 100% (1:1) ratio of nearest larger retrace

to understand the idea look at both charts, look at the retraces, the ABC's, the constructions, get the context within the various sizes of plays and the larger daily construct
this may take you several attempts to get what's going on....and these are the easy ones as they are merely signals in a very, very, very strong bull, so, not a lot to work out, merely where are the higher prob entries with the lowest prob fails
xjo cash versus cfd with ratio.png
 
on the left hand chart (pos's not shown) does not display the larger time frame you see in the right hand chart

what makes the cash chart useful is that it continues to confirm the uptrend by only retracing a symmetry of the nearest largest pullback within the larger time frame, so mark that as 'exhibit useful'
if we get there and price begins to display rotation qualities, long is a good idea, very close stop
this is matched by the cfd making a 161.8% swing south, of a proposed first mini swing (A) and all pricing after that first mini swing, during a lacklustre sesh, is clearly not impulsive, so, it is more likely to be a fake lift to a higher high, like a false break out, that'll terminate by coming back inside and make for a lower low than that first swing south (A) or at least attempt to take out the base of that first mini swing and then rotate back into an impulsive lift

again:
in the cfd chart
the grey A is equaled by the grey C at 161.8% after the fake break-out (B)

in the cash chart
yesterdays 1.30pm thru 2.50pm swing south was matched at 100% today (1:1 symmetry)

the instance of the cash and cfd being at different length intraday today is merely interesting yadda yadda
as i say it is only substantive that a measure occured within the context of the trend (when trending) and the size "makes sense", it is relative, part of a structure "that fits and makes sense" and does not conflict with what makes sense and if it did it would rebalance my disposition of what was unfolding

just cos we're in a rippa bull doesn mean some numbnut isnt going to cause a short term forehead stamp
sizing needs to be relative to risk based on that alone
 

Similar threads

volatility
XJO Trading System
Replies
7
Views
6K
volatility
volatility
Top