Trading the XJO with CFDs

[Joules MM1]

today we see consistant high % STO's (again!)
'top clients' printed 90% sells
'all clients' 88% sells

in the cash there are two resistance ratios converging at 5887 above that 5911 and 5924 above those we should see a strong swing in those disposed to selling ......we like to call that getting the F squeezed into realisation!

 

[Joules MM1]

that's Qi

https://www.optionstrategist.com/we...394569658&mc_cid=77cd986030&mc_eid=c5d2a13444

Stock Market Commentary 1/18/2019
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The oversold rally has carried farther than many had expected. This is not too surprising, for the market is attempting to fool as many people as it can. We have participated in this rally, in accordance with the buy signals from our various short-term indicators and those indicators are still on buy signals. We thus expect the short-term rally to continue.

But the $SPX chart is still negative. There is still a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average. That is a bearish chart. There is clearly support at 2350, the late December lows. On the upside, $SPX has overcome the resistance at 2600 and is moving into a more congested area from 2640 on up.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They have rather stubbornly been remaining at high levels and have only begun to sharply decline in the past couple of days.

Market breadth has been extraordinarily strong. Of course, the breadth oscillators are on buy signals and are deeply into overbought territory, after this many days of strongly positive breadth.

$VIX is still high enough, though, that its long-term trend is up, which is still a worry for the stock market. But a $VIX close below 16 would be bullish in that it would terminate the uptrend.

Most of our short-term indicators remain on buy signals, and thus we remain short-term bullish and longer-term bearish. That is a balancing act that may be hard to maintain. Right now, there seem to be a lot of bears on TV talking about "W" bottoms, retests, and resumption of the bear market. I would think that the current rally has to carry far enough so that a great number of these bears will have to relinquish their position before the market can turn lower again.

https://www.optionstrategist.com/ab...394569658&mc_cid=77cd986030&mc_eid=c5d2a13444

 

[Joules MM1]

sentiment, cfd-style
each one time/dated

when price is clearly a series of HH's and HL's regardless of the framework/structure and the sentiment is so clearly skewed to the opposite point of view, it is probably in your favour to go with what price is saying than what the pov suggests it 'should be doing and should be doing any moment'

 

[Joules MM1]

in the SPA time for $xjo retail cfd's printed 79% STO's

the crowd continues to sell H/H's

 

[Joules MM1]

this is pure gut holding ...it must be agony.....i know...i used to do it too !
lack of technique and too much belief .....but, oh, that aching gut....

 

[Joules MM1]

due a small rotation to correct the recent $xjo upswing, this week we should see a swing in sentiment for both retail clients and top clients in cfd shorts go down from an average of 80% ..but to where?

 

[kid hustlr]

J,

Talking medium term, do you see this current push up as correctional and there will be another push towards the recent lows or do we continue to grind back to Oct highs?

 

[Joules MM1]

J,

Talking medium term, do you see this current push up as correctional and there will be another push towards the recent lows or do we continue to grind back to Oct highs?

i think the downside is done within the larger monthly and quarterly uptrend, hence my bollocking on about (and taking the opposite position to) shorters (STO's)

maybe we'll get a fast rip downhill this week but the current construction looks to me like we have a bull
and it's got a small firecraker up its nonfeeding end

 

[Joules MM1]

btfd

we can expect few more of these.....so slow gotta chance to pratt around with charts...

$xjo $cash

 

[Joules MM1]

with the $dax action and overnight bias we should expect friday to have that snap-back for $xjo...note no window dressing last day of the month on local indexes

 

[Joules MM1]

breaking 5864.7 cash would be a tell the typical wedge bullish idea has failed

at least for a swing south equal to the previous swings in the current upleg, a reset

the longer price holds within the wedge the higher the probabilities of continuation
never sell just coz its easy or feels right......

retail cfd's averaging 61% sells today .....small swing to bullish side but still heavy sentiment for more bear market mentality

 

[Joules MM1]

$xjo has refused to roll over....looks uber bullish..easy trap!

retail cfd's hovering 60% sells, top clients 63% sells

 

[Joules MM1]

superbowl day in the US

locally we have a team who are ardently set-up, they are an offensive teams dream come true, they take a position about their team and what it can achieve, but, more importantly for them, they view the opposing team as a bunch of wannabe losers who'll get dealt a blow, oh, for sure, real sooooon

watch that team talking at the end of the video, see how absolutely committed they are...they are the short sellers

 

[Joules MM1]

lot harder to transact in a smooth trend .....unless youre forced to transact due to the trend
#ifyaknowwhatimean


#knowyourtrend

 

[Joules MM1]

once upon a time (oh, here we go with the guru-shmooroo talk)
the thing we see in the $xjo was called the 'easy money' from a trend perspective, that is, you find the contextual swing low, like we have in the big monthly channel, ride that wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_wave

even so, for people who are inclined to lose sight that all risk remains the same regardless the underlying action in a trend, there are always outliers we cannot know about, this is random risk, like we saw in 1987 even tho trend comes back to the mean after a 5 to 6 sigma move on a monthly basis the trend brought about by basic tenets of supply and demand resume via the expression within the index(es)

so keep in mind that the easy rise carries all the same risk with the extent of the swing undefined while not affecting the endogenous trend by sudden and random exogenous events

 

[Joules MM1]

honkers reopens on a sell quickly restarts uptrend action, but, could be in a larger rotation to flatten out overbought after initial upleg ....#happynewyears #sizematters

$dax remains on a pullback sell atm .....we needs to see a lot more of thedownside construction to call a daily rotation to weekly downtrend....even so the retail and top-client sentiment is hovering around 60% bids so the selling thus far while is relaxed it's also easy buying for easy buyers and easy buyers are usually buying what someone is distributing.....#bbw

 

[Joules MM1]

 

[Joules MM1]

honkers follow-up on that res

top clients 55% STO

 

[Joules MM1]

a similar set-up using that cash price extremes worked here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1009977/

the sentiment, via positions in the cfd, are way too bullish imho at 62% and 65% BTO's all clients and tops clients....we'll see, $dax has to go bid immediately or we go lower to test the next price extreme circa 10800 ....it's (cfd) already well below the 161.8% marker in the above cash chart ....so ....good for the STO's

 

[Joules MM1]

$dax
cfd has broken down leaving longs stranded...more to go
playing nearterm swings is best idea for mine in this traffic, keeping an eye out for rotations based prior levels most transactions appear to occur at is better play than looking for price extremes but any of them can be considered valid targets ....small size