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Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

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I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.

The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.

Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom.

look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.
 

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Holy crap professor,

I don't know whether I like this lunch break business. You could be 000's up going into lunch, and the bailiffs moving in by the time you've finished your chicken chow mein.

Scary
 
wayneL said:
Holy crap professor,

I don't know whether I like this lunch break business. You could be 000's up going into lunch, and the bailiffs moving in by the time you've finished your chicken chow mein.

Scary
Click to expand...

yes it can be a bit dodgy. I'm glad I went and had lunch with Mrs frink today- I would have given back quite a bit of money, as today would have been one of the few occasions that I had enough open profit to warrant a hold over the HK lunch break.

Though on days like this, I probably could have bought the SPI or nik to attempt to hedge against any gap. Never tried that though so don't know how well it would work.
 
sheesh BIG reversal today! there has been some talk lately of which market leads which and the answer is pretty obvious there I think.

What's the view in terms of futures leading cash or vice versa - i.e, was todays SPI move just a futures-driven tree-shake? Any thoughts?
 
I've noticed this, futures index's all moving in tandem, I use the Dow, FTSE with the ASX 200 its uncanny how they all keep in time right to the minute. porkpie
 
thats true porkpie they do move in synch - I guess to reduce arb opportunities. Frank D reckons most of the action is computer driven these days, I gues it wouldn't be hard for the large players to run algorithms to keep them in line

but on a move like todays on SPI is it merely futures driving the index lower, or vice versa?
 
Edwood said:
thats true porkpie they do move in synch - I guess to reduce arb opportunities. Frank D reckons most of the action is computer driven these days, I gues it wouldn't be hard for the large players to run algorithms to keep them in line

but on a move like todays on SPI is it merely futures driving the index lower, or vice versa?
Click to expand...

which came first, the chicken or the egg?
 
I have just checked the FTSE index which was 6302.8 where on my CFD futures platform at exactly the same moment was 6301.porkpie
 
professor_frink said:
I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.

The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.

Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom.

look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.
Click to expand...


I totaly agree with you, Professor!

Also as you have clearly pointed out in your triple chart format

Very Well done!
Which progarmme do you use to create those charts?

I also think "They" got it all wrong today

NY rocketed in the last 20 mins
I think the Commodity markets closed earlier? and therefore our Mums and Dads got false readings

Normaly what happens is as the DOW goes north the Commodities needed to fuel this rise RISE!

HOW CAN THEY RISE if they are closed?
20 minutes can sometimes be a long time at sea and very critical at times

Can you do a triple/quadruple chart on the rescourse sector?
EG: RIO /BHP vs few Commodities

Crickey!
Don't our Mums' and Dads' Fund Managers have a good set of Clocks

It would lead some people to beleive that
"The World has gone Temporally Mad"

Salute and Gods' speed

"Time is Everything"
 
That chart is done with amibroker.

Yes, most commodity markets are closed earlier in the day, varies from commodity to commodity- crude shuts 2:30pm New York time, copper 1pm, gold 1:30, etc.

Whilst it's possible for me to do comparison charts of RIO, BHP, etc. I don't really have much in the way of data on commodities, and I keep my data for futures and stocks seperate, so can't do a comparison at this stage.
 
yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)? With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.
 
Edwood said:
yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)? With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.
Click to expand...

it's a lot easier to move the market via the futures- if there is going to be any manipulation, it will be done there.
 
Edwood said:
yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)? With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.
Click to expand...


I am not talking manipulation!

I am talking the Dumb leading the Dumber!

When this happens
Nobody is big enough to move markets and I pity anyone who tries

It's about as silly as thinking anyone can Ramp a Stock on their own

It can't be done !


Did you know that All chain letters break down sooner than later?


If it could be done we would have to jail all our taxi drivers LOL!


Salute and many thanks professor
 

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professor_frink said:
~~
look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.
Click to expand...

Given that HK is the last to close is this suggesting the Nikkei will re align itself towards HK when the Nikkei opens?
 
professor_frink said:
I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.

The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.

Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom.

look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.
Click to expand...

at around the same time today the usd/JPY dropped like a stone as well, it also recovered as well not after knocking out my stop :) got to love it.
 
meantime squeezing the shorts in the US...

"The SP500 rally last night was apparently due to an error. A US house made a mistake and bought 5400 futures when they should have bought just 54 futures. This turned all long var players, who were going to sell the close, into buyers. Since you cannot cancel MOC orders in the last 10 minutes, these var swap delta buyers had to buy back their MOC amount plus more to get the right hedge.

This amounted to $5billion worth of fake buying, causing the Dow to rally 250 points in 20 minutes..."
 

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