MichaelD
Not fooled by randomness
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1. Get stock chart.
2. Show it to a 5 year old.
3. Ask - is it going up? is it going down?
The best trend indicator in existence since they're not out to self-sabotage.
The best I've seen on ANY Forum!
- Thread starter tech/a
- Start date
1. Get stock chart.
2. Show it to a 5 year old.
3. Ask - is it going up? is it going down?
The best trend indicator in existence since they're not out to self-sabotage.
lol Michael. Not entirely helpful though.
Trend indicators are usually things like moving averages (abbreviated everywhere to MA). The clearly point to the trend of the underlying and depending on what distance you set them at, can show you the short,medium or long term trend. MA's can be set to average the price over the last few minutes all the way up as far as you want to go.
Common MA's used are 5,15,35 and 150 day although everything in between is also used.
Trend indicators are usually things like moving averages (abbreviated everywhere to MA). The clearly point to the trend of the underlying and depending on what distance you set them at, can show you the short,medium or long term trend. MA's can be set to average the price over the last few minutes all the way up as far as you want to go.
Common MA's used are 5,15,35 and 150 day although everything in between is also used.
Below is an extract from the article posted by Tech.
The reality of it is when a market is trending either up or
down, it really doesn't matter much what you are using for
entries as long as you are entering in the direction of the trend.
(Yes, this is true. Later I'll give you some more facts you can
research on this.)
Now you're thinking that can't be true, he's saying
entries mean little, and that I can use almost anything when the
market is in an up trend or down trend. Yes, that is what I'm saying.
LeBeau, Van Tharp and others have tested all kinds of random entry
strategies and random exit strategies and guess what. During the
trending markets they made money with all kinds of dart throwing
crap.
What he (the author of the article) is saying is that when the market is trending, your entry strategy isn't particularly important....as long as a strong trend is in progress, pretty much any entry strategy will suffice.
While that's largely true, it ignores the fact that not all entries are equal....some are better than others. The ideal entry strategy is one that puts you into the market right at the start of a big momentum surge in the direction of the trend.
Over on the PPS thread you can find posts from myself, Nick Radge and others giving chart examples showing the benefit of entering from patterns that are precursors of big momentum surges in the direction of the trend. These are the sort of moves that can give you very big profits in a very short time. Why not take advantage of them!
On the 'Forex Help' thread I've given further examples of the massive momentum surges that you can capture by using a couple of simple chart patterns to fine tune your entries.
Someone whose opinions I value is US trader, fund manger, author, and trading educator, Linda Bradford-Raschke. She's one of the traders featured in Jack Schwager's 'Market Wizards' books.
Below is an extract from an interview she gave.......
Interviewer
"How important is market timing in your analysis"?
Linda Bradford-Raschke
"Very important. It helps determine how much you want to risk and it helps determine the degree of follow through.
If your timing is such that you are hopping aboard right when there is an increase in momentum, then you have greatly increased the probability of follow through in your direction."
The reality of it is when a market is trending either up or
down, it really doesn't matter much what you are using for
entries as long as you are entering in the direction of the trend.
(Yes, this is true. Later I'll give you some more facts you can
research on this.)
Now you're thinking that can't be true, he's saying
entries mean little, and that I can use almost anything when the
market is in an up trend or down trend. Yes, that is what I'm saying.
LeBeau, Van Tharp and others have tested all kinds of random entry
strategies and random exit strategies and guess what. During the
trending markets they made money with all kinds of dart throwing
crap.
What he (the author of the article) is saying is that when the market is trending, your entry strategy isn't particularly important....as long as a strong trend is in progress, pretty much any entry strategy will suffice.
While that's largely true, it ignores the fact that not all entries are equal....some are better than others. The ideal entry strategy is one that puts you into the market right at the start of a big momentum surge in the direction of the trend.
Over on the PPS thread you can find posts from myself, Nick Radge and others giving chart examples showing the benefit of entering from patterns that are precursors of big momentum surges in the direction of the trend. These are the sort of moves that can give you very big profits in a very short time. Why not take advantage of them!
On the 'Forex Help' thread I've given further examples of the massive momentum surges that you can capture by using a couple of simple chart patterns to fine tune your entries.
Someone whose opinions I value is US trader, fund manger, author, and trading educator, Linda Bradford-Raschke. She's one of the traders featured in Jack Schwager's 'Market Wizards' books.
Below is an extract from an interview she gave.......
Interviewer
"How important is market timing in your analysis"?
Linda Bradford-Raschke
"Very important. It helps determine how much you want to risk and it helps determine the degree of follow through.
If your timing is such that you are hopping aboard right when there is an increase in momentum, then you have greatly increased the probability of follow through in your direction."
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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This definately belongs here in my view.
Its a 3 hr Crash course but a must for those into the fundamentals which will quite possibly drive our future over the next 20 yrs.
Thanks to Jose Silva for providing the link.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
Its a 3 hr Crash course but a must for those into the fundamentals which will quite possibly drive our future over the next 20 yrs.
Thanks to Jose Silva for providing the link.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I'm just going through the Crash Course to World Economics for the second time.
Hidden in the title is the obvious.Presented sussinctly and easy for all to understand
Martenson is certainly right about one thing
You really DONT have anything more important than this to do for the next 3 hrs.
Hidden in the title is the obvious.Presented sussinctly and easy for all to understand
Martenson is certainly right about one thing
You really DONT have anything more important than this to do for the next 3 hrs.
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Well as a noobian i have to say that article reminds me of the add on tv where the kid goes to school and everything is fuzzy for him and he doesnt understand a thing. In short, i may as well have been reading chinese...
I have copied it to my snippets folder as suggested and will give it a going over later.
Thanks to Johenmo for pointing me in this direction.
Thanks to tech/a for the snippets folder suggestion.
cheers,
blue
I have copied it to my snippets folder as suggested and will give it a going over later.
Thanks to Johenmo for pointing me in this direction.
Thanks to tech/a for the snippets folder suggestion.
cheers,
blue
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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I must be invisible?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12227&highlight=crash
I started the thread on it Tech!
Anyway, i'm happy to there are a few people finally getting through it.
Cheers,
CanOz
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I must be invisible?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12227&highlight=crash
I started the thread on it Tech!
Anyway, i'm happy to there are a few people finally getting through it.
Cheers,
CanOz
Sorry Can didnt see it.
Only Jose's post next door.
white_crane
Jedi Master
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Thanks tech/a for a great thread and thanks nomore4s for bumping it 
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Don't agree with this part.
The tighter your entry, the more you can LOAD UP. Buying or selling pullbacks in the trend is the safest IMHO. Jumping on will get you squeezed, unless you use loose entries and this will not allow bigger size.
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This was obviously written by someone heavy on system development and back testing, but light on profitable trading. Trends, trends and trends. "The trend is your friend except at the end.....when it bends." I think I borrowed this from Ed Seykota. Anyway, one of the first steps to becoming a 'pretty good trader' is to understand that you need to understand yourself. Then you may find you don't need to understand so much about the market.
explod
explod
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Yes I think that's right. "Trend Following" by Michael Covel I found one of the best guides I have ever read. He also wrote :"The Complete Turtle Trader" which I understand is good too. The saying I picked up was "the trend is your friend untill the bend"
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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"Understanding the market" (Which I presume in this discussion) is the "perceived why" an instrument will rise or fall---isn't necessary.
"Understanding yourself" isn't required either.
IF
You know why the way your trading will be profitable.
If like 99% of traders you cant answer this then you can be an economic genius and have the discipline of a Tibetan Monk and fail spectacularly.
It really is that simple.
Oh
Forgetting exotics.
Please show me how its possible to turn a profit without a trend.2ticks in your direction is a trend!
Scalpers shoot for a trend of accumulated wins greater than accumulated losses.They love a trend.
"Understanding yourself" isn't required either.
IF
You know why the way your trading will be profitable.
If like 99% of traders you cant answer this then you can be an economic genius and have the discipline of a Tibetan Monk and fail spectacularly.
It really is that simple.
Oh
Forgetting exotics.
Please show me how its possible to turn a profit without a trend.2ticks in your direction is a trend!
Scalpers shoot for a trend of accumulated wins greater than accumulated losses.They love a trend.
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Welcome back Tech.
Understanding the market is exactly that.
You have to know the players in your market, how they act, how they think, how your market is likely to react to certain conditions and what it is likely to do at certain levels.
Of course you then need your own way of profiting off that, you can be right all day and still loose. This is where it takes time to create your own style, which is where the personality part mainly comes into the equation.
I don't get the last paragraph of your post.
Understanding the market is exactly that.
You have to know the players in your market, how they act, how they think, how your market is likely to react to certain conditions and what it is likely to do at certain levels.
Of course you then need your own way of profiting off that, you can be right all day and still loose. This is where it takes time to create your own style, which is where the personality part mainly comes into the equation.
I don't get the last paragraph of your post.
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..and I didn't understand this bit.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Thought it was/is self explanatory.
No trend no profit regardless of time frame/regardless of length of trend.
I'll then ask this.
How do you (or anyone else here who trades) know that repetition of their entry and exit strategy will turn a profit.Particularly if your a discretionary trader.Not saying you cant profit trading in a completely discretionary manner but HOW do you know what YOUR doing time and again will or even CAN turn a profit. 99% simply don't know.
Know this and nothing else matters it really doesnt.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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I would argue that its the profit and results that show you can do it.
If you are still doing it profitably after a yr, 2 yrs, 5yrs then it has proved it works
If you are still doing it profitably after a yr, 2 yrs, 5yrs then it has proved it works
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Ha!! you have never seen someone scalp a large spread market like the HSI or a commodity then??
You can take 10 ticks just working the spread. no actual movement in the instrument.
Ya learn something every day hey?
(yes I'm a smart ar$e)
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If a market is not trending (say lunch), and bouncing off an important level numerous times, you can fade it repeatedly. No trend, still profit to be made. Or you could simply make the market for all the retail guys who don't use the OB to buy or sell if there is a spread and no trend. Just taking flicks for hours straight. Some of my best lunchtime periods come from doing this.
Ah, looks like TH just beat me too it, though SPI is looking more like HSI every day! Scary!
As for knowing you can turn a profit and why, I think profits speak for themselves as Prawn stated.
If your trying to trade breakouts in chop, you will soon see it's not working. If your trying to rely on correlations with other markets and they break down, you will soon see it on your equity curve. If your trying to fade moves and the trend is strong as hell, you will soon see it.
Ah, looks like TH just beat me too it, though SPI is looking more like HSI every day! Scary!
As for knowing you can turn a profit and why, I think profits speak for themselves as Prawn stated.
If your trying to trade breakouts in chop, you will soon see it's not working. If your trying to rely on correlations with other markets and they break down, you will soon see it on your equity curve. If your trying to fade moves and the trend is strong as hell, you will soon see it.
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