Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[MS+Tradesim]

Bronte, thanks for reply and further info there.

 

[skc]

The Futures is the: SFE SPI 200 Index
The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index

If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).

If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).

The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
Large movement in overseas market overnight etc

Hope this helps.

Thanks Bronte.

I've thought the premium / discount relates to the SPI's fair value versus the cash. The SPI's (currently at ~3530) fair value based on my calcaulation is ~3540. This assumes 2 months to expiry, 4.25% risk free interest rate and dividend drop off by ~1%. So the SPI is still at a discount to the cash (currently ~3560), but by only 20 points. My input data is not perfect (esp. on dividend drop off, and hence my question before) so give or take a few points each way. Does this sound right?

And given the above, the SPI is bearish against the cash, so you will no hold long trades. Is that what you meant by won't trade against the Discount? Thanks

 

[Frank D]

SPI tries to move higher completing the R27 top, but it's also below the
R44 Spiral top...(Higher Daily open)

I've change my view on the SPI moving higher at this stage because of
this pattern.

Short 3543 partial exit 3530 + 13

Holding breaking stops from entry...

This was simply a confirming top matched with the higher Daily open.

As you can see I'm trading from the open of the bar, lower this time, and
I don't have to trade any breakouts, as i'm already on the trend down, if it continues down.

If the R27 can move down into 3524, I think it's going to continue down
into a R44 low, which puts it below 3515, and potential more weakness
into the close.

I could be completely wrong and there is 3pm buying, as it remains
above 3526, but i'll adjust to that later if my trailing stops are taken.

With the potential of higher prices towards 3603, but at this stage I want to trade in the direction
of the 'open' on this R44 bar, in this case down.

 

[Bronte]

Bronte, thanks for reply and further info there.

Thanks Bronte.
And given the above, the SPI is bearish against the cash, so you will no hold long trades. Is that what you meant by won't trade against the Discount? Thanks

You are welcome guys
We will Buy off our Support & Sell off our Resistance.
Just taking more care if we are trading against the Physical.

 

[Frank D]

SPI moves down into random support @ 3515.

If this was the open I would be buying and trading upwards, but i'm
not interested in buying longs this afternoon.

It's an exit zone and taking the day off.

Today's trading was death by a thousand cuts of boredom.

Weekly report out tomorrow

 

[Bronte]

The Futures is the: SFE SPI 200 Index
The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index

If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).

If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).

The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
Large movement in overseas market overnight etc

Hope this helps.

Physical (ASX200) closed at 3548 (later corrected to 3550.9)
SPI saw 3501 during the closing stages of todays trade (see chart)
3548 - 44 = 3504 44 point plus DISCOUNT to the Physical
Any Buy around here, resulted in a possible 32 + points

 

[Cartman]

A charts a chart.

Watched around 30 hrs of video of currency trading.
Looks pretty normal to me.
HSI well thats not normal!

of course currency trading is 'normal' --- all charts are normal ---- but its the 'time frame' relative to price change that alters --- thats the point ive been trying to get across

the HSI is probably totally normal too if u bring the time frame down to relate to the volume/dollars traded relative to the price moves ---- (never traded it and have no idea)

price gyrations of an instrument are affected by its liquidity at a given moment -----

currencies are more affected on a lower time frame because they are extremely liquid ------ nothing like stocks from where i sit --

 

[MRC & Co]

Today's trading was death by a thousand cuts of boredom.

Make that most of this wk. Tragic.

 

[Bronte]

Physical (ASX200) closed at 3548 (later corrected to 3550.9)
SPI saw 3501 during the closing stages of todays trade (see chart)
3548 - 44 = 3504 44 point plus DISCOUNT to the Physical
Any Buy around here, resulted in a possible 32 + points

Just thought I would mention that the Physical closes 30 mins before the SPI.

 

[MRC & Co]

Just thought I would mention that the Physical closes 30 mins before the SPI.

But the first 10mins of that last 30 is a battle to calculate the closing auction the quickest!

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Didn't take any trend signals today as it seemed all the action happened early morning. SPI seemed directionless so I played around and lost heaps and heaps of monopoly money trying to pick ranges.

Encouraging to hear even the pros don't think today was up to much.

 

[MRC & Co]

Didn't take any trend signals today as it seemed all the action happened early morning. SPI seemed directionless so I played around and lost heaps and heaps of monopoly money trying to pick ranges.

ha ha ha, I did the same and lost heaps and heaps of real money!

 

[Bronte]

Never mind, it's Friday night guys.... enjoy a beer or two: :bier: :drink: :dance: lol

 

[tradez]

Hi guys,
I am very new to futures trading and have recently been dipping my toes in the water with the SPI on a paper trading account. I was wondering for those of you who scalp short time frame charts (1-5 mins) what size stops do you work with when putting a trade on?

 

[MRC & Co]

Personally, for scalping, I use anywhere from 1-6 tick stops, average somewhere in the middle.

 

[tradez]

Personally, for scalping, I use anywhere from 1-6 tick stops, average somewhere in the middle.

MRC are you shooting for a 1:1 risk reward when scalping?

 

[acouch]

good morning all
Mondays road map.
have a great weekend and take care
ac

 

[MRC & Co]

MRC are you shooting for a 1:1 risk reward when scalping?

On average, slightly higher.

But completely depends on the day, sometimes lower, sometimes much higher. If the day is choppy and not trendling cleary, I will just try to time entries and take small ticks. If it is trending clearly and flowing price action, I will aim slightly higher and try take chunks of the trend on both the move and the pullbacks and if it's choppy and trending, I will try and take a high reward by position trading it more.

 

[tech/a]

Yes acouch, we noticed this also, very well done


Nice one tech/a
It is so pleasing to follow your development.
If possible please reread our 2003 'Trading the SPI' thread on RC and our recent one on Shares.
Should make more sense to you now.

Bronte.

I went back to refresh my memory on the 2003 thread.
Its nowhere to be found.
I cant foir the life of me remember what was in them.
But think it has something to do with levels?

Give me a snippet of what your talking about and the light "should" switch on.
My memory was of Gann analysis?

 

[Bronte]

Hi tech,

It was mainly to do with just 'Trading the SPI'
Why we have chosen this particular market to specialize in.
The many advantages, you are now discovering over trading shares etc.
The other thread (previously mentioned) on: shares.com.au does explain a lot.