Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

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Trembling Hand said:
Not that many cartman, only did about 30 today still on holidays till mid feb. :)
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TH --- im interested, and im sure others would be also ----------

when yr only doing a fraction of yr regular trades ----- u would only be looking for what u think are 'sure things' --- maybe?? ---

do u adjust yr entry criteria at all from yr normal style before honing in with the DOM? ----

OR

do u just walk in the room and think ---- stuff it ---- im bored ill make a cupla quick trades cause the milkmans gona be here in a few minutes and i need a cupla bucks ;):D

this should maybe be on the 3 trading rules thread cause its more related to that ..... maybe u could give us a blurb on that thread
 
Cartman said:
when yr only doing a fraction of yr regular trades ----- u would only be looking for what u think are 'sure things' ---
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sure things? what are they? :D

Just doing small vol and a couple of hours on the spi.


Nothing special to it. My year starts fed 16th. till then more hols than hours at the screens.
 
Trembling Hand said:
sure things? what are they? :D

Just doing small vol and a couple of hours on the spi.


Nothing special to it. My year starts fed 16th. till then more hols than hours at the screens.
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hah ---- i was wondering what a TH sure thing might entail --- thats y i asked ;) -----

ok --- so u do yr normal trade stuff but just do it at yr own leisure ---- kinda like a pro surfer who still hits the beach even though he doesnt have a comp coming up ---- gotta keep the rails waxed :D
 
Cartman said:
smugness is not a very redeeming quality Techno :p:
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Lost me.
Been charting 14 yrs.
A charts a chart.

You seem to be under the impression that scalping is the only way to profit trading futures?

i think we were mainly talking about currency trading re the argument over chart differences weren't we Tech --- u musta forgot that bit :rolleyes::D
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Oh sorry misunderstood.
Watched around 30 hrs of video of currency trading.
Looks pretty normal to me.
HSI well thats not normal!
 
Tech/A

Potential for what? a down day or an UP day?

US premium Report

I'm not expecting US markets to move higher than those Weekly lows,
but I would like to think the Price will move upwards and retest those lows
before heading lower on Friday

Two patterns to look for on Thursday

If price rises upwards on Thursday and hits the blue channel to
verify Wednesday's breakout then look for a move down into Thursday's
lows.

If price moves down early on Thursday:- then the 5-day lows on
Thursday are seen as Random support, which could result in a move
back towards Wednesday's breakout late in the day.

This is basically my view of price moving back towards the Weekly
break, matched with Wednesday's 5-day breakout, and continuation
down into Friday.

Thursday's trading in the US has been precise, and using pattern recognition and 'text book' patterns, I'm factoring a move lower on Friday in US markets simply because these are repeating patterns of retesting the breakout and then continuing lower the next day.

However, I want to see where price closes on Midnight Thursday in US markets, because if it continues upwards and closes back above the Weekly lows, then there is a potential for a continuation upwards on Friday.

So how does this translate to the SPI on Friday???

There is a clue in yesterday's 12:14 post at the end, and 3560 is still
a critical level on the SPI this week, and so far it's moving back to my
level and I will trade accordingly to the level on today's open.

But I also understand that yesterday test and bounce off the 3-week lows
@ 3481 can often be a major support zone that could see prices rise
upwards next week.

Therefore to answer your question, at this stage I'm not expecting the SPI
to have an UP day, but I'm not going to fight the trend if it's above 3560.
 

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Potential for what?
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Movement.

Frank Currently I dont know which way either.
You have highlighted in your report in Blue that we could also get one way or the other depending on various price movements confirming.

If your situations play out you will follow your blueprint.
I can see the vast difference in my following price without one (blueprint).
Still reading.
Thanks again.
 
Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac;)
 

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Tech/a,

The point of chart reading is understanding certain set-ups....

For example :- trend is down and I want to short trade a higher Daily open
as it moves down and exit for the day

Where price closes is important for the next days trading, because in
relation to the S&P and Thursday's trading:- breakout

A trader understands the concept of retesting the break using
support/or trading the break:- resistance.

So the trader can then trade shorts and longs on Thursday.

If Friday follows a continuation down, then the trader would focus solely
on trading shorts, simply based on today's close and 5-day trading
set-ups:- because there is a break of the Weekly lows.

If it doesn't follow a continuation down on Friday, then hopefully the
trader has some intra-day techniques that allows him or her to take
small chunks out of the ATR as it moves higher.

This gets back to holding and folding.



SPI Trading:-

I've already factored in Friday's trading, by yesterday's 12.14pm post.

I already know what & how and I'm going to trade today.

But the SPI isn't opening near or around 3560 and a higher open.

so it changes how I'm going to trade today on the open, as my
probability pattern isn't set-up for today's trading on the open, so I would focus on taking small chunks out of the market:- 10-20points.

If the SPI opened near 3560 then I would look to hold for longer moves
down, as long as it remains below 3560, that's because it's a breakout of a
5-day range from yesterday, price has come back to retest the break and
now continues down with the overall weekly trend.

A Daily trend has a random length:- 44 points or double that, which is often the case 2x44 ranges, or it could just continue 200 points in the same direction.


The whole point of understanding the patterns in the market is so you
can optimise your trading even though your system has given an
intra-day signal, which often can give a lot of false ones.
 
Frank just interested, when something ridicules happens like that huge spike on 29th of Dec (300 point stop explosion) do you ignore it for the weekly and monthly highs in this example?

Or a huge SYCOM drop that doesn't show during cash hours etc.
 
TH,

Anything in the day sesson is part of the 5-day pattern used for the next day's trading.

Anything in the 24hour market is part of the monthly ranges, regardless of spikes.
 
My strategy was either sell a higher open around 3560...

Or BUY on the HOOK pattern around 3515 looking for a move up towards
3560

Neither pattern has played out so I waited for the 22 point
pullback....

Long partial 3530 parital exit 3540 + 10,

With the expectation that price will complete the r44 range upwards, as
long as it remains above 3526.

Note:- if for some reason the R44 completes the move down into
3505, then it's below 3515 and looking bearish....

Now Which is more valid?

Yesterday's 5-day break of 3560 and continuation down into a lower
Friday close....

Or yesterday's Weekly lows support @ 3481, which could result in a
higher Friday close towards 3603 in afternoon buying after 3pm

I can't answer that quesiotn until after it plays out....

But if Friday moves higher after 3pm towards 3603, then there could a
higher moves next week (Weekly report tomorrow)

If it breaks and closes lower, then 3481 support isn't vaild, asthere will be
a new market part to travel towards next week (DOWN), as the Weekly
lows will extend further down.

Obviously price action in the US will have a say in what and when...

Today:- both my open probability patterns haven't played out, therefore into trading 10-20 point moves, but at the same time analysing
and understanding any other potential moves that might eventuate
today.
 

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Bronte said:
Yes we certainly do MS+.
We would be very reluctant to take a position against a
44 point Discount or Premium :)
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How do you work out the amount of discount / premium? I know the formula for fair value of a future contract, but you will need info on the dividend drop off schedule to the cash. Is this information available somewhere for free or a fee?

Also, what do you mean a position against a 44pt premium? Does it mean you expect the premium to come down, or you expect the XJO to come up?

thanks
 
The Futures is the: SFE SPI 200 Index
The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index

If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).

If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).

The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
Large movement in overseas market overnight etc

Hope this helps.
 

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