TOL - Toll Holdings

[Julia]

I haven't been following TOL and was just prompted to look at it following the comments here.

What happened in June last year???

 

[Muschu]

Thats because of two things:
1. It has been edited to remove the actual word guarantee. Its not even an interpretation, it was specifically stated.
2. You have no sense of humour, hence why you didnt get the reasoning (even Tyson did). Secondary to this is that it was a humourous way of reminding us all that choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say..

Just saw this and was about to smile until I realised that I don't have a sense of humour. I do agree however that "choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say".

 

[Muschu]

Just saw this and was about to smile until I realised that I don't have a sense of humour. I do agree however that "choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say".

After further thought, I'd just like to add one thing: Nick, I don't set out to offend people. Or I certainly hope I don't. And no doubt neither do you. I suspect the probability is that we have misinterpeted one another. For my part I sincerely apologise if you viewed my initial response as offensive.
I recently said to a friend that PC correspondence, by its very nature, has limitations. Maybe this is a case in point.
Enjoy your weekend.
Regards
Rick

 

[Kuruk]

It is interesting to see people can actually get some value from TOL.

From my experience using them in business they are an absolute disaster that I would never recommend.

Perhaps one day I too will finally get some value from them. :

 

[Tysonboss1]

It is interesting to see people can actually get some value from TOL.

From my experience using them in business they are an absolute disaster that I would never recommend.

Perhaps one day I too will finally get some value from them. :

I guess the same can be said for most big businesses, depending on who you talk to, Take the major banks for an example,...

 

[Nicks]

After further thought, I'd just like to add one thing: Nick, I don't set out to offend people. Or I certainly hope I don't. And no doubt neither do you. I suspect the probability is that we have misinterpeted one another. For my part I sincerely apologise if you viewed my initial response as offensive.
I recently said to a friend that PC correspondence, by its very nature, has limitations. Maybe this is a case in point.
Enjoy your weekend.
Regards
Rick

LOL not offended, you dont even need to apologise mate. It was all tounge in cheek (usually is with me).

Its all good. Its only when people get catty on forums like high school girls fighting or high school boys beating their chests that it gets annoying.

Back to the topic. TOL, hmmm im not sure about TOL anymore. Those who know me on this forum know that I have been a long time fan and holder of TOL. Looks good to me in the long term, but stagnant in the short term atm.

 

[Nicks]

I guess the same can be said for most big businesses, depending on who you talk to, Take the major banks for an example,...

Thats precisely the answer. You can add insurance companies, utilities, Telstra etc etc. Does that mean they arent a good business to invest in though..... Usually means a stable business that probably isnt going to give you supersonic growth (definition of Blue Chip??)

 

[MRC & Co]

How did you guys "value" TOL?

Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?

 

[Muschu]

How did you guys "value" TOL?

Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?

In all truth because I don't know enough, yet anyway, to be able to do that MRC. May the day come! I comfort myself with the thought that at least I bought at $8, not $14.

 

[Tysonboss1]

How did you guys "value" TOL?

Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?

most of the time you won't ever really know where the bottom is until it' past.

I am not a trader I just purchase stocks when ever I feel they are good value, If that means I somtimes buy in a bit early well that is probally offset by the times I have avoided buying to late.

 

[MRC & Co]

You never know when it is a bottom, but you definately know what a downtrend looks like, just look at the chart. If it's falling, probably best to wait for it to at least flatten out. That is my experience.

How did you value TOL, intrinsic value equation? And what was your valuation?

I find it hard to value due to all the restructuring, hence why I have stayed out. But I have done rather well trading it.

 

[nick2fish]

I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. I don't know squat about value metrics but my is that Tol is good buying @$8.00.

 

[questionall_42]

I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. I don't know squat about value metrics but my is that Tol is good buying @$8.00.

Very dangerous assumption - are you referring to great opportunities like ABC or CNP or Allco? When does the bounce back (of 5-10%) happen - days, weeks, months, years?

 

[nick2fish]

Lets just use these two examples of 2 separate trading days. Being an investor that relies on fundamentals I stay away from debt laden companies (exception being MQG)
UGL = Disappoints with profit result down 23% end of day 17% (recovery on going)
BXB = Wal mart announcement down 20% end of day 11%

Getting back to the thread topic I think TOL has been overslapped by investors given that sophisticated investors have been pricing TOL'S Virgin exposure for a couple of months now. Oh well time will tell Cheers

 

[MRC & Co]

I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. I don't know squat about value metrics but my is that Tol is good buying @$8.00.

LOL at the bold part.

To the rest of it, as I have not looked at this in-depth, the TOL SP fell due to poor virgin results yeh, lead by an increase in the price of crude? If so, how will TOL pick back up those profits? Will Virgin pass these increased costs over to the consumers to maintain profit margins, will this affect demand for their services? Any regression analysis done on this? (i.e. increased costs of airfaires and the subsequent effect on demand?)

Lot of questions there to ask yourself before you should be buying on a bounce back to your own preconceived reality.

 

[questionall_42]

Lets just use these two examples of 2 separate trading days. Being an investor that relies on fundamentals I stay away from debt laden companies (exception being MQG)
UGL = Disappoints with profit result down 23% end of day 17% (recovery on going)
BXB = Wal mart announcement down 20% end of day 11%

So does that mean you are intraday trading and have the ability to pick the bottom in the day? Time-frames and investment horizons are obviously the key to all of this and without that clarity (and stop losses) it is an assumption without evidence. Maybe I have burned a few too many times with this idea which is why I warrant extreme caution for the proverbial bounceback. Good luck with TOL

 

[Nicks]

Regardnig the regression analysis - there is a high level of inelastic demand with flying and transport / logisitcs.

I really dont think its got to do with demand. Sure it will drop slightlly as some % of consumers in these two areas will be affected by price, but I think a majority will still demand trucking services and flying.

Regarding fuel costs - this well simply be passed on, as it will be for Toll's (and Virgin's) competitors.

Growth - well there is still plenty of room for logisitcs growth in the Australian and Asian market, and Mr Little is well aware of this. Plus he is one of the sharpest minds going around when it comes to growth.

Bottom line - expect demand to remain and expect to see alot of organic growth with TOL over the next few years. Disappointing 'blip' at the moment which when you look at it provides an excellent entry point for those looking to add a stable growing large ASX listed company to the portfolio...... and remember - all the debt was spun off into Asciano. Mr Little is keeping plenty of reserves for his growth ambitions!

 

[MRC & Co]

Regardnig the regression analysis - there is a high level of inelastic demand with flying and transport / logisitcs.

[/B]

True, however, if economic growth slows, and commodity prices (crude) continue to rise, demand could well flatten out and become more elastic.

Demand will be more elastic than the rest of it's business, as it is a luxury good, more adversely affected by changes in economic growth. Further, a decent portion of Virgin marketshare would be taken up by those living closer to the poverty line, so economic growth would likely cause larger subsequent ramifications on Virgin demand as opposed to some of its more luxury rivals.

Just good to continue to monitor long-term investments, not simply stash and hope. If fundamentals change, its time to change those long-termers.

 

[MRC & Co]

See the US Airlines getting smashed! Crude price definately correlate strongly with their share prices.

On another note, looks like there could be accumulation of TOL taking place at the moment.

 

[roland]

Hey, what happened to TOL? Wasn't watching for 10 minutes, then when I came back, the depth had switched and the SP took off.