Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015

[So_Cynical]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

I think I'll be okay to do it 2016...unless Joe wants to take over and make it an official ASF comp?

What else can we do to get more entrants? Maybe a monthly prize (assuming there is a tipping comp fee)

It's all open to ideas...

I have enjoyed the monthly updates, Nulla did a good job and hope you do decide to take over if Joe doesn't want the gig...the last comp was fairly simple and that should be maintained, dividends are important but the exercise was capital growth (if divs were added to the current comp i would be another 5 or 6% in front) don't care either way.

The liquidity thing is a little too complex to police, a voluntary $10 or $20 entry fee would make it a little more interesting, winner takes all or % split for first 3 or 4.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Hey guys, firstly let me say thanks to Nulla for providing the updates for the 2015 competition. His commitment to keeping everyone up-to-date was outstanding, and appreciated by all.

I'm happy to make this competition an official ASF competition if everyone would like to give it another shot in 2016. I'll also commit to providing the updates each month as well as prizes to the top three placegetters.

Is everyone happy with keeping everything the same in 2016, or should there be changes? Any feedback is appreciated.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

I'm happy to make this competition an official ASF competition if everyone would like to give it another shot in 2016. I'll also commit to providing the updates each month as well as prizes to the top three placegetters.

Is everyone happy with keeping everything the same in 2016, or should there be changes? Any feedback is appreciated.

Excellent Joe, for simplicity sake keep the rules the same...thanks again Nulla.

 

[systematic]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Hey guys, firstly let me say thanks to Nulla for providing the updates for the 2015 competition. His commitment to keeping everyone up-to-date was outstanding, and appreciated by all.

I'm happy to make this competition an official ASF competition if everyone would like to give it another shot in 2016. I'll also commit to providing the updates each month as well as prizes to the top three placegetters.

A huge thanks to nulla nulla, would have been a boring year without his fantastic updates.

Joe that's fantastic, I'd love to see this become an official ASF comp. Hey, maybe one day if we get enough interest, we might end up doing a, 'rolling 12 month' comp (a new, 12 month comp starting each month!).

Is everyone happy with keeping everything the same in 2016, or should there be changes? Any feedback is appreciated.

Joe, I'd like to keep the same, simple rules (5 picks, 12 month holding period).
Last year, being so last minute...not everyone had 5 picks. I'd assume that for 2016 we'll hold that it must be 5 picks for a valid entry.

The only other comment I'd make; now I'm happy to go with the flow here...but if it carries any weight being the thread / idea starter...I really am adamant about my earlier comments re: the start date for the comp, and (even more so) a liquidity requirement. I really wanted this to be 'real world' style. I noticed that the latest ASX game did the same thing. I don't want someone to be able to win due to a stock that goes up 1,000% when that stock (a) may have traded only a few times in the year, (b) for not much money and (c) the entry price in the comp might not have been achievable at all.
What are your thoughts?

A simple way around it would be to restrict to ASX300, but that might be a bit boring or restrictive for some.

Another simple way around it?

Do a scan on New Year's weekend for a min liquidity requirement....and post that list here (e.g. min $x traded over last x days). The 5 selections must be in that list - or your entry does not qualify.

Again, just ideas...

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

A
A simple way around it would be to restrict to ASX300, but that might be a bit boring or restrictive for some.

Another simple way around it?

Do a scan on New Year's weekend for a min liquidity requirement....and post that list here (e.g. min $x traded over last x days). The 5 selections must be in that list - or your entry does not qualify.

Again, just ideas...

ASX300 just not gonna fly, boring as bat poo....so perhaps min share price of $0.01 like the monthly comps and must of traded $10000 worth in the previous 5 trading days.

 

[pixel]

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Hey guys, firstly let me say thanks to Nulla for providing the updates for the 2015 competition. His commitment to keeping everyone up-to-date was outstanding, and appreciated by all.

I'm happy to make this competition an official ASF competition if everyone would like to give it another shot in 2016. I'll also commit to providing the updates each month as well as prizes to the top three placegetters.

Is everyone happy with keeping everything the same in 2016, or should there be changes? Any feedback is appreciated.

Thanks Joe;
and a special thankyou to nulla for providing the monthly updates. Highly informative.

I'd vote for not making it too restrictive. Sure, an average daily (or weekly) turnover minimum would level the playing field somewhat; by all means, also include the 1c cut-off. Otherwise, I agree with SC that limiting the picks to ASX300 shares would be too boring. Even All Ords aren't wide enough IMO, especially when you consider that a good stock may only be added once S&P have woken up to facts.

 

[nulla nulla]

Happy New Year for 2016. Congratulations to So_Cynical for achieving an impressive 60.99% return on his selections for 2015, also congratulations to the runners-up, ROE with 56.68% and Chipmunk3d with 46.01%.

In all there were thirteen, of the thirty four participants, that finished in positive territory. Given the negative impact of the decimated resource sector, this was a good result. No doubt if dividends and franking credits were included some of the participants with negative capital outcomes would be in positive territory as well. Good luck in 2016. The final figures are:

Name	Share	31-Dec-14	31-Dec-15	Change $	Change %	Portfolio
						Change %
Ariyahn2011	fmg	2.740 ​	1.870 ​	-0.870 ​	-31.75% ​	​
	ooo	28.910 ​	15.230 ​	-13.680 ​	-47.32% ​	​
	rio	58.000 ​	44.710 ​	-13.290 ​	-22.91% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	-39.34% ​
Bazmate	ben	12.810 ​	11.950 ​	-0.860 ​	-6.71% ​	​
	egp	3.790 ​	5.080 ​	1.290 ​	34.04% ​	​
	ipl	3.190 ​	3.960 ​	0.770 ​	24.14% ​	​
	jbh	15.790 ​	19.520 ​	3.730 ​	23.62% ​	​
	qan	2.400 ​	4.090 ​	1.690 ​	70.42% ​	29.10% ​
Burglar	ago	0.165 ​	0.018 ​	-0.147 ​	-89.09% ​	​
	bci	0.530 ​	0.105 ​	-0.425 ​	-80.19% ​	​
	fmg	2.740 ​	1.870 ​	-0.870 ​	-31.75% ​	​
	fms	0.013 ​	0.009 ​	-0.004 ​	-30.77% ​	​
	gbg	0.020 ​	0.021 ​	0.001 ​	5.00% ​	-45.36% ​
Chipmunk3d	ajx	0.485 ​	0.865 ​	0.380 ​	78.35% ​	​
	iph	3.500 ​	8.870 ​	5.370 ​	153.43% ​	​
	neu	0.120 ​	0.115 ​	-0.005 ​	-4.17% ​	​
	osh	7.890 ​	6.700 ​	-1.190 ​	-15.08% ​	​
	voc	6.400 ​	7.520 ​	1.120 ​	17.50% ​	46.01% ​
evilk9	bpt	1.045 ​	0.490 ​	-0.555 ​	-53.11% ​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	-53.11% ​
Garpel Gumnut	bhp	29.370 ​	17.860 ​	-11.510 ​	-39.19% ​	​
	rio	58.000 ​	44.710 ​	-13.290 ​	-22.91% ​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	-31.05% ​
hhse	asl	0.390 ​	0.255 ​	-0.135 ​	-34.62% ​	​
	cwn	12.690 ​	12.500 ​	-0.190 ​	-1.50% ​	​
	fmg	2.740 ​	1.870 ​	-0.870 ​	-31.75% ​	​
	org	11.670 ​	5.700 ​	-5.970 ​	-51.16% ​	​
	ori	18.950 ​	2.750 ​	-16.200 ​	-85.49% ​	-40.90% ​
issh	ajx	0.485 ​	0.865 ​	0.380 ​	78.35% ​	​
	cwn	12.690 ​	12.500 ​	-0.190 ​	-1.50% ​	​
	1pg	1.180 ​	3.520 ​	2.340 ​	198.31% ​	​
	lng	2.420 ​	0.800 ​	-1.620 ​	-66.94% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	30.56% ​
jblocker	mrm	1.240 ​	0.255 ​	-0.985 ​	-79.44% ​	​
	nwh	0.360 ​	0.086 ​	-0.274 ​	-76.11% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	​
	swm	1.350 ​	0.775 ​	-0.575 ​	-42.59% ​	​
	wpl	38.010 ​	28.720 ​	-9.290 ​	-24.44% ​	-55.59% ​
Klogg	bol	0.140 ​	0.092 ​	-0.048 ​	-34.29% ​	​
	ddr	1.570 ​	1.630 ​	0.060 ​	3.82% ​	​
	ssm	0.185 ​	0.465 ​	0.280 ​	151.35% ​	​
	tsm	0.335 ​	0.395 ​	0.060 ​	17.91% ​	​
	uos	0.500 ​	0.500 ​	0.000 ​	0.00% ​	27.76% ​
Know the past	bol	0.140 ​	0.092 ​	-0.048 ​	-34.29% ​	​
	clt	0.190 ​	0.265 ​	0.075 ​	39.47% ​	​
	nwh	0.360 ​	0.086 ​	-0.274 ​	-76.11% ​	​
	sbb	0.068 ​	0.035 ​	-0.033 ​	-48.53% ​	​
	vet	0.225 ​	0.120 ​	-0.105 ​	-46.67% ​	-33.22% ​
Krackdawg	sxy	0.320 ​	0.140 ​	-0.180 ​	-56.25% ​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	-56.25% ​
logique	amm	2.930 ​	2.600 ​	-0.330 ​	-11.26% ​	​
	bhp	29.370 ​	17.860 ​	-11.510 ​	-39.19% ​	​
	fmg	2.740 ​	1.870 ​	-0.870 ​	-31.75% ​	​
	ilu	5.950 ​	6.130 ​	0.180 ​	3.03% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	-26.91% ​
Miner	ago	0.165 ​	0.018 ​	-0.147 ​	-89.09% ​	​
	bno	0.430 ​	0.370 ​	-0.060 ​	-13.95% ​	​
	cdd	3.420 ​	1.160 ​	-2.260 ​	-66.08% ​	​
	nea	0.665 ​	0.390 ​	-0.275 ​	-41.35% ​	​
	pxg	0.098 ​	0.150 ​	0.052 ​	53.06% ​	-31.48% ​
Muschu	boq	12.180 ​	13.940 ​	1.760 ​	14.45% ​	​
	gem	4.170 ​	3.570 ​	-0.600 ​	-14.39% ​	​
	min	7.580 ​	4.010 ​	-3.570 ​	-47.10% ​	​
	nvt	5.080 ​	4.670 ​	-0.410 ​	-8.07% ​	​
	wes	41.720 ​	41.610 ​	-0.110 ​	-0.26% ​	-11.07% ​
needsajet	amm	2.930 ​	2.600 ​	-0.330 ​	-11.26% ​	​
	jbh	15.790 ​	19.520 ​	3.730 ​	23.62% ​	​
	mrm	1.240 ​	0.255 ​	-0.985 ​	-79.44% ​	​
	rio	58.000 ​	44.710 ​	-13.290 ​	-22.91% ​	​
	tol	5.890 ​	9.020 ​	3.130 ​	53.14% ​	-7.37% ​
nulla nulla	dxs	6.970 ​	7.500 ​	0.530 ​	7.60% ​	​
	fdc	2.870 ​	2.800 ​	-0.070 ​	-2.44% ​	​
	fmg	2.740 ​	1.870 ​	-0.870 ​	-31.75% ​	​
	nvn	2.120 ​	2.440 ​	0.320 ​	15.09% ​	​
	scp	1.855 ​	2.130 ​	0.275 ​	14.82% ​	0.67% ​
Paavfc	aek	0.072 ​	0.060 ​	-0.012 ​	-16.67% ​	​
	enr	0.130 ​	0.090 ​	-0.040 ​	-30.77% ​	​
	rdm	0.081 ​	0.033 ​	-0.048 ​	-59.26% ​	​
	sgq	0.063 ​	0.071 ​	0.008 ​	12.70% ​	​
	tpp	0.050 ​	0.120 ​	0.070 ​	140.00% ​	9.20% ​
peter2	hsn	1.820 ​	3.440 ​	1.620 ​	89.01% ​	​
	osh	7.890 ​	6.700 ​	-1.190 ​	-15.08% ​	​
	smx	3.530 ​	3.000 ​	-0.530 ​	-15.01% ​	​
	tol	5.890 ​	9.020 ​	3.130 ​	53.14% ​	​
	wpl	38.010 ​	28.720 ​	-9.290 ​	-24.44% ​	17.52% ​
PinkBoy	anz	32.090 ​	27.930 ​	-4.160 ​	-12.96% ​	​
	boq	12.180 ​	13.940 ​	1.760 ​	14.45% ​	​
	cba	85.650 ​	85.230 ​	-0.420 ​	-0.49% ​	​
	iag	6.250 ​	5.560 ​	-0.690 ​	-11.04% ​	​
	wes	41.720 ​	41.610 ​	-0.110 ​	-0.26% ​	-2.06% ​
pixel	aac	1.480 ​	1.345 ​	-0.135 ​	-9.12% ​	​
	drm	0.480 ​	0.585 ​	0.105 ​	21.88% ​	​
	ric	0.940 ​	1.520 ​	0.580 ​	61.70% ​	​
	tlg	0.240 ​	0.305 ​	0.065 ​	27.08% ​	​
	wor	10.080 ​	4.630 ​	-5.450 ​	-54.07% ​	9.49% ​
PurpleSX2	aei	0.290 ​	0.435 ​	0.145 ​	50.00% ​	​
	ahz	1.180 ​	0.685 ​	-0.495 ​	-41.95% ​	​
	avx	0.320 ​	0.069 ​	-0.251 ​	-78.44% ​	​
	blt	0.955 ​	0.295 ​	-0.660 ​	-69.11% ​	​
	eos	0.815 ​	1.490 ​	0.675 ​	82.82% ​	-11.33% ​
Robusta	dna	0.755 ​	0.770 ​	0.015 ​	1.99% ​	​
	icq	1.090 ​	0.960 ​	-0.130 ​	-11.93% ​	​
	ipp	2.680 ​	3.950 ​	1.270 ​	47.39% ​	​
	nvt	5.080 ​	4.670 ​	-0.410 ​	-8.07% ​	​
	srx	28.370 ​	40.050 ​	11.680 ​	41.17% ​	14.11% ​
ROE	orl	3.800 ​	2.750 ​	-1.050 ​	-27.63% ​	​
	rfg	5.760 ​	4.630 ​	-1.130 ​	-19.62% ​	​
	siq	1.465 ​	5.110 ​	3.645 ​	248.81% ​	​
	sul	7.150 ​	11.410 ​	4.260 ​	59.58% ​	​
	ved	2.290 ​	2.800 ​	0.510 ​	22.27% ​	56.68% ​
shouldaindex	eax	2.400 ​	1.030 ​	-1.370 ​	-57.08% ​	​
	flt	32.620 ​	38.890 ​	6.270 ​	19.22% ​	​
	mvf	1.400 ​	1.605 ​	0.205 ​	14.64% ​	​
	tox	2.380 ​	2.800 ​	0.420 ​	17.65% ​	​
	trs	6.150 ​	10.900 ​	4.750 ​	77.24% ​	14.33% ​
skc	ari	0.215 ​	0.058 ​	-0.157 ​	-73.02% ​	​
	idt	0.150 ​	0.370 ​	0.220 ​	146.67% ​	​
	mcs	0.235 ​	0.050 ​	-0.185 ​	-78.72% ​	​
	qbe	11.210 ​	12.590 ​	1.380 ​	12.31% ​	​
	sea	0.525 ​	0.170 ​	-0.355 ​	-67.62% ​	-12.08% ​
Smurf1976	bpt	1.045 ​	0.490 ​	-0.555 ​	-53.11% ​	​
	osh	7.890 ​	6.700 ​	-1.190 ​	-15.08% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	​
	wpl	38.010 ​	28.720 ​	-9.290 ​	-24.44% ​	​
		​	​	0.000 ​	​	-3.29% ​
So_Cynical	acx	1.760 ​	5.200 ​	3.440 ​	195.45% ​	​
	clv	0.300 ​	0.385 ​	0.085 ​	28.33% ​	​
	mxi	0.530 ​	0.515 ​	-0.015 ​	-2.83% ​	​
	ric	0.940 ​	1.520 ​	0.580 ​	61.70% ​	​
	ved	2.290 ​	2.800 ​	0.510 ​	22.27% ​	60.99% ​
Systematic	aiz	2.370 ​	2.780 ​	0.410 ​	17.30% ​	​
	apn	0.835 ​	0.525 ​	-0.310 ​	-37.13% ​	​
	asb	1.505 ​	1.570 ​	0.065 ​	4.32% ​	​
	lau	0.390 ​	0.490 ​	0.100 ​	25.64% ​	​
	rex	1.030 ​	0.910 ​	-0.120 ​	-11.65% ​	-0.30% ​
The Falcon	eld	2.400 ​	4.650 ​	2.250 ​	93.75% ​	​
	org	11.670 ​	5.700 ​	-5.970 ​	-51.16% ​	​
	sto	8.250 ​	3.680 ​	-4.570 ​	-55.39% ​	​
	svw	5.820 ​	5.530 ​	-0.290 ​	-4.98% ​	​
	wow	30.680 ​	24.500 ​	-6.180 ​	-20.14% ​	-7.59% ​
tinhat	cdu	1.950 ​	1.105 ​	-0.845 ​	-43.33% ​	​
	flt	32.620 ​	38.890 ​	6.270 ​	19.22% ​	​
	gem	4.170 ​	3.570 ​	-0.600 ​	-14.39% ​	​
	hzn	0.160 ​	0.080 ​	-0.080 ​	-50.00% ​	​
	tgs	0.130 ​	0.050 ​	-0.080 ​	-61.54% ​	-30.01% ​
trillionare#1	byl	0.380 ​	0.200 ​	-0.180 ​	-47.37% ​	​
	fln	0.650 ​	1.800 ​	1.150 ​	176.92% ​	​
	flt	32.620 ​	38.890 ​	6.270 ​	19.22% ​	​
	lgd	0.250 ​	0.250 ​	0.000 ​	0.00% ​	​
	mrm	1.240 ​	0.255 ​	-0.985 ​	-79.44% ​	13.87% ​
Umike	bhp	29.370 ​	17.860 ​	-11.510 ​	-39.19% ​	​
	cvn	0.135 ​	0.100 ​	-0.035 ​	-25.93% ​	​
	kcn	0.660 ​	0.370 ​	-0.290 ​	-43.94% ​	​
	pan	0.420 ​	0.185 ​	-0.235 ​	-55.95% ​	​
	qbe	11.210 ​	12.590 ​	1.380 ​	12.31% ​	-30.54% ​
wysiwyg	ccl	9.320 ​	9.300 ​	-0.020 ​	-0.21% ​	​
	cdd	3.420 ​	1.160 ​	-2.260 ​	-66.08% ​	​
	nvt	5.080 ​	4.670 ​	-0.410 ​	-8.07% ​	​
	tgr	3.910 ​	4.700 ​	0.790 ​	20.20% ​	​
	tox	2.380 ​	2.800 ​	0.420 ​	17.65% ​	-7.30% ​

 

[So_Cynical]

Happy New Year for 2016. Congratulations to So_Cynical for achieving an impressive 60.99% return on his selections for 2015

i own all the stocks i selected so had a great year, will carry my first ever ASF yearly comp win with pride.

Thanks again Nulla.

 

[systematic]

Thanks nulla nulla, for tracking this faithfully throughout the year...the success of this comp has enabled it to become an official ASF comp, so well done!

Great job to the runners up, and especially the winner - So Cynical - that is an awesome result! Congratulations!!!

 

[trillionaire#1]

Well done So Cynical ,great effort in a volatile year.

Thanks Nulla Nulla, a lot of work much appreciated
(I suppose its too late to remove MRM from my 2015 pick,ahh thought so)

 

[shouldaindex]

Look at the volatility of portfolio returns -60% to +60% and stock returns -90% to +250% and it shows how you need to not only be in the right strategy, but you need to get lucky within your sample range at any given point.