Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

systematic said:

Thanks nulla nulla.

All ords up 8.78%

Currently 7 out of 33 outperforming.

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And only 17 out of 33 in negative territory. Hhhhmmm....

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

I really messed up here not thinking price was based on 31 Dec close, but in close prior to "entries close" at the start of the comp. talk about lead in the saddlebags, I won't make that mistake again

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

I'm heading in the same direction as the iron ore price. Give me something Twiggy.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Just like to mention that the market returns are time dependent. A fixed period and stock selection produces a luck result.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Wysiwyg said:

Just like to mention that the market returns are time dependent. A fixed period and stock selection produces a luck result.

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Could you elaborate?

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Wysiwyg said:

Just like to mention that the market returns are time dependent. A fixed period and stock selection produces a luck result.

Click to expand...

Thanks for pointing that out - im sure most market participants are aware that time will influence return.

In Feb i won the Monthly tipping comp with GTG - same stock the next month was in last place for all but the last day of the march comp, this weeks winner is next weeks loser.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

systematic said:

Could you elaborate?

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I was running some backtests and noticed the closing of all stocks on the last day does not reflect the profitability of the system. Really want to let these selections run until the system closes them which can only be done in real time.

The comp. leaders vary from month to month as share prices fluctuate therefore the winner will be lucky enough to be in front on the closing date.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Wysiwyg said:

I was running some backtests and noticed the closing of all stocks on the last day does not reflect the profitability of the system.

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Are you talking about your system? All systems? What do you mean by, "on the last day?" Do you mean last day of the month, year? Only trying to get where you're coming from.

Wysiwyg said:

Really want to let these selections run until the system closes them which can only be done in real time..

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I still don't get it. The comp is in real time?
Do you mean to say, the system you are running has your selections still in a trade...therefore you don't like the monthly update as they don't really reflect your system...because they wouldn't be counted (in real life) until the trade was closed?

If that's what you mean - I get that. But this is just a comp, and the monthly tally is just for interest - not to reflect the worth of a traded system. We're all on equal footing.

Wysiwyg said:

The comp. leaders vary from month to month as share prices fluctuate therefore the winner will be lucky enough to be in front on the closing date.

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I'm not sure how to even reply to that. On the one hand, of course; month to month reflects as much noise as anything else. You're saying that the winner at the end of the year will be the lucky (i.e. not skillful) one. Well, perhaps. Most likely, even. Any comp like this is for fun (see my original post). All well and good, but I can't help but wonder where you're going with is; what the implications are. Are you saying (as could be read into your comment) that it's all noise and the winner is lucky...and we can never know if we're on to something? If so, when does that change? A ten year benchmark? A hundred year benchmark?
Actually - I think a lot like that. I've either alluded to or stated as such before; in answer to a question about what makes a good 'system' - I think I said something along the lines of, "must work over a very long time period".
Even a 10 or 20 year back test (which is near the max of what you'll see in many an author's back test, if they have one at all) is not necessarily meaningful. Fama (or French, can't remember which one said it) reckons you need to be hitting close to one hundred years for it to be truly significant.

Is that the sort of thing you're talking about? That a comp is not meaningful and the winner will be the lucky one?

But that's not the point of a comp. Example - the monthly comp run on this site - is a point in time competition. The way to play it is not necessarily the way to play as you would a long term investor. It's just "tournament play". I learned (in another world) that tournament play often requires a different strategy. Example: anyone who thinks they're going to win an ASX comp or an ASF monthly comp with a conservative investing style (the type they may practice in real life) is kidding themselves. This year long comp is just another variety.

Anyway - was just interested in what you meant. I don't think you meant that having a comp is completely meaningless - otherwise you wouldn't have joined in. I think you mean that it's frustrating; as the constraints of a comp don't fit in with the way your system normally works? In which case, as I said, I understand completely...but that's the way a comp works.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

systematic said:

Are you talking about your system? All systems? What do you mean by, "on the last day?" Do you mean last day of the month, year? Only trying to get where you're coming from..

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All systems (and in this case a fixed term tipping comp.)that end at a specific time. Something to consider when back testing systems. No need to "read" anything into it.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Wysiwyg said:

All systems (and in this case a fixed term tipping comp.)that end at a specific time. Something to consider when back testing systems. No need to "read" anything into it.

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A comp is a comp is a comp. I'd never mistake it for a system and try to read more than cursory predictive qualities into a placing. That is as true for our regular monthly comp as for the full year one that this is about.
Being allowed five stocks instead of just one may assist in improving the odds to a small degree, as it allows some diversification across different sectors. Yet it's still a lot of guesswork, albeit with a little more wriggle room for educated guesses.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Hmmm Just checked my pozzie in the chart. -23% There is a bobby prize ..yes?
Anyone want to subscribe to JBs top stock tips?

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Looking at the last posted results:

4 out of 35 people have record of 3 outperformers and 2 underperformers stock picks (compared to 10% ASX gain this year).

31 out of 35 have more underperformers.

I read Peter Lynch says 6 out of 10, or this case 3 out of 5 ain't bad, and results (even from a tiny subsection and time) seem to suggest that too.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Actually 2 have 4 outperformers and 1 underpermer.

Anyway, overall point stands even with rushed sums.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

The update for the tipping competition for 2015 as at 30 April 2015 follows (sorry for the delay):



ISSH has leapt to a very impressive lead with a current increase in portfolio value of 37.53%.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

nulla nulla said:

The update for the tipping competition for 2015 as at 30 April 2015 follows (sorry for the delay)

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I forgot to do my usual...

12 of 34 outperforming all ords (7.1%)


I'll also start adding:

11 of 29 entrants (with 5 picks) outperforming. So that makes the percentage a bit better.


Of those 11 entrants (with 5 picks, overall outperforming the all ords):

- Several have 4 of their 5 picks individually outperforming the all ords.

- Only issh has all 5 picks in the black.

Go issh!


Thanks for updating nulla nulla, glad you're on it.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

The update for the 2015 Tipping competition as at 31 May 2015 follows (Close of trade Friday 29 May 2015):


Bazmate is the new leader with a capital growth of 25.9%, followed closely by issh on 22.83%, krackdawg on 21.88% and pixel on 20.09%. With the take-over/merger of fdc and nvn I will continue to show the last traded price of nvn in future month end updates. 17 members out of 34 are currently generating a return better than 5%.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Thanks nulla nulla.

14 of 34 entrants outperforming all ords.

13 of 29 entrants (with 5 picks) outperforming all ords.

Of those 13 entrants...only issh is in the black with each individual pick (no one is outperforming with each individual pick).

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Here's an update as of 3rd July 2015
Better Link right here:
http://i.imgur.com/FUgnmKk.jpg

Statistics
13 of 34 in the Black
Cumulative Average : -1.39%
Minimum: -28.71%
Maximum: 34.74%


Seems like noone has a full portfolio in the black unfortunately.

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

Congrats to me with ACX the single biggest winner with a 101% rise....and i actually own it as well - real money!

Re: Tipping Comp for Full CY 2015

The update for the 2015 Tipping competition as at 30 June 2015 follows (Close of trade Tuesday 30 June 2015):


issh continues to show a return in excess of 28% with Bazzmate and Pixel in second and third place. Only 16 entries are in profit and while so_cynical has a high score on acx at 77.84%, trillianare#1 has a return of 92.31% on fln. Unfortunately for both so_cynical and trillianare#1 their other choices have dragged back the overall return of their selections. There is still six months to go and anything can happen.