Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015

[systematic]

Hi all,

An acquaintance of mine who works in the industry, every year has a little comp with a friend of his. They pick like, 4 or 5 stocks for the year and have a little bet between them.

I just realised that as it's not quite New Year's yet...there's still a chance to have a friendly / for fun, "pick 5 stocks" for 2015 - if anyone is interested?

Doesn't need to be complicated. Similar rules to the monthly comp - nothing under 1c (but doesn't matter if someone else has your stocks).

My only suggestion (and many would probably disagree)...would be something like, "must be from the ASX 300" - simply to keep people from picking completely illiquid companies that could never have been invested in (in real life). Could also have 2 options: (a) ASX300 stock and (b) any stocks and people could participate in either or both - as they see fit.

I don't know if anyone has the desire to manage the portfolios, performance wise (I don't). If so, great. But if not, just come back end of next year and do your own tally.

If enough are interested, we could do a "buy on open on Monday" as the entry price...not technically the first trading day of the year - but close enough. Gives people the weekend to join in.

Just thought I'd see if anyone was interested; it's just a fun thing - nothing more to it than that.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: Tips for 2015

Interesting idea that's been done once or twice in the past. I just hope the thread hasn't been started too late with people on holidays. Still, it's worth seeing if there's any interest.

Anyone game to get the ball rolling?

 

[piggybank]

Re: Tips for 2015

We could start at the beginning of February, given most people would be back at work by Tuesday (27th Jan) from their holidays. You would still have the better part of a week to sort out your winners and get them in by the start of business (market) on Monday the 2nd Feb 2015.

If you do enter, then you may like to share your reasons as to why you chose them - and enlighten newbies as well as uneducated oldies like me.

Regards
PB

 

[hhse]

Re: Tips for 2015

Interesting idea that's been done once or twice in the past. I just hope the thread hasn't been started too late with people on holidays. Still, it's worth seeing if there's any interest.

Anyone game to get the ball rolling?

Just incase:

ORG
ORI
CWN
ASL
FMG

They are beaten down stocks in the year of 2014. Personally, I think they are financially sound (won't go bankrupt the next day) and have solid history of earnings. Will repick if it starts in February.

 

[Bazmate]

Re: Tips for 2015

Ok, I'll have a crack:

EGP - I think uncertain times call for more gambling and there might be some surprises with a new Casino.
JBH - I just like the business model and I think there's upside in discretionary spending.
QAN - I like the lower oil prices and I think there's upside in discretionary spending.
IPL - They still supply blasting stocks for the big iron ore miners and they have fertiliser that might benefit from a renewed focus on food production in Australia.
BEN - just as a fifth cause I like it better than the other banks.....

Happy New Year, and don't drink too much

 

[robusta]

Re: Tips for 2015

Some of mine may be outside the ASX300 - for now...

DNA- Casino in Vietnam, the price is beaten down ATM

ICQ- Asia's version of Carsales.com

IPP- Asia's version if realestate.com

NVT- Growth business should be helped by lower A$

SRX- Some big trial results due soon also lots of overseas earnings.

Do we count dividends in this comp?

 

[systematic]

Re: Tips for 2015

As there's no stakes in this...I think we can be a bit casual about it...

If we want to make it an actual comp...we could:
- buy on open, Monday 2nd Feb (gives plenty of time for people to see this thread)
- see if we can hussle up a small prize
- have a rule around either an index (ASX300) or at least a min. market cap or volume requirement. Want this to be realistic.

To do that properly, it would be fun to have weekly / monthly updates (like the monthly comp is updated nightly)...but that's beyond my time ability...I'd normally say yes, but I have to say no!


It would definitely be cool to run it as a proper comp.




Failing that....just leave it as a "your tips for 2015" thread...and (as there's no stakes) it's more just a see how you go thing.

@Robusta...being a one year holding period, yes - dividends would have to be counted.



I think a proper comp launched Feb would be great - but someone's got to volunteer to run the spreadsheet to track portfolios and post updates here. Like I said, I can't do that. But I'd be happy to see if I could hussle up a small prize somewhere...

 

[ROE]

Re: Tips for 2015

My, should we play texas holdem, pick 7 take best 5
RFG
SUL
ORL
SIQ
VED

Happy NY to all, Here to 2015 ... 2014 was a very busy year for me hope I have more time for stock in 2015

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: Tips for 2015

RIO
BHP

Ad infinitum

I am avoiding Banks atm.

 

[Paavfc]

Re: Tips for 2015

AEK - Uranium could outperform.
ENR - Possible discovery news coming.
RDM - The next Cannington ??
SGQ - The next SIR ??
TPP - Founder of MND and UGL now runs this Co..Class management.

Good Luck all for 2015 these are just my observations..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: Tips for 2015

if I had an ole amstrad buckling over the numbers and I had 1lazy K or Ten , I'd put it on BHP.

gg

 

[KnowThePast]

Re: Tips for 2015

I'll bite. All high risk plays, I am betting to win, not to have a sure return here

NWH - any kind of recovery in the industry, or confirmation of order book for 2016 should see this re-rated.
CLT - returning to consistent profitability is a target that is strarting to look possible.
VET - many current problems, but if they are solved, the underlying business is worth a lot more than current market price.
SBB - possibly a fraud, but if not...
BOL - once downsized, and extra assets sold, valuation looks attractive.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Tips for 2015

I think the oil plunge is over done and that it will go back up somewhat in due course.

So that's any stock which benefits from a rising oil price. Currently holding BPT, OSH, STO and WPL amongst oil and oil-related stocks.

That said, I do see timing as a risk with this one. Could be waiting a while....

 

[tinhat]

Re: Tips for 2015

HZN - oil price recovery.

TGS - the bottom can't be too far off for copper. 2015 might be too soon for copper to turn around but this company has been smashed recently and has put expansion plans to duplicate its electro-winning plant on hold until it pays down debt. Potential for it to go onto main grid power to reduce costs. If cash flows hold up to forecasts, it will pay down debt and should be re-rated at some stage if it can strengthen its balance sheet and also refinance debt on better terms. There is a good fundamental medium term outlook for this company albeit with some risk.

CDU - copper miner with plant nearing completion. There might be a light at the end of the tunnel. Processing plant should be going into commissioning and ramping up during 2015. About to list on Hong Kong exchange. Will probably be back in the ASX200 soon too if share price recovery has some legs.

GEM - although I've never owned this stock, the party might well continue for G8 for some time yet. There are hints that childcare payments will be boosted in the reforms to family welfare under development. This stock is on my short list at the moment. I've always been put off holding this stock by its chairman, Jenny Hutson.

FLT - oversold. Good value based on fundamentals. On the chart appears to be coming close to completing a head and shoulders pattern. Current price represents an acceptable dividend yield at a conservative payout ratio.

 

[Ariyahn2011]

Re: Tips for 2015

HZN - oil price recovery.

TGS - the bottom can't be too far off for copper. 2015 might be too soon for copper to turn around but this company has been smashed recently and has put expansion plans to duplicate its electro-winning plant on hold until it pays down debt. Potential for it to go onto main grid power to reduce costs. If cash flows hold up to forecasts, it will pay down debt and should be re-rated at some stage if it can strengthen its balance sheet and also refinance debt on better terms. There is a good fundamental medium term outlook for this company albeit with some risk.

CDU - copper miner with plant nearing completion. There might be a light at the end of the tunnel. Processing plant should be going into commissioning and ramping up during 2015. About to list on Hong Kong exchange. Will probably be back in the ASX200 soon too if share price recovery has some legs.

GEM - although I've never owned this stock, the party might well continue for G8 for some time yet. There are hints that childcare payments will be boosted in the reforms to family welfare under development. This stock is on my short list at the moment. I've always been put off holding this stock by its chairman, Jenny Hutson.

FLT - oversold. Good value based on fundamentals. On the chart appears to be coming close to completing a head and shoulders pattern. Current price represents an acceptable dividend yield at a conservative payout ratio.

I was in FLT. I didnt quite see much opportunity for FLT to grow in the med/long term. In terms of capital gains.

 

[burglar]

Re: Tips for 2015

if I had an ole amstrad buckling over the numbers and I had 1lazy K or Ten , I'd put it on BHP.

gg

Ahh, ... the ole 6128

 

[pinkboy]

Re: Tips for 2015

Ill go 5 (of 11) of my current portfolio. Also for interest sake, because they will be the base for my income in 2016.

BOQ: Is the 'storm' behind them? Hopefully! Healthy dividends predicted next couple years.

WES: My Consumer Staple of choice. I feel it is more diversified and stronger than WOW.

ANZ: Current largest holding.

CBA: Will we see $100 this year? Im predicting yes. Should have topped up more on the last dip.

IAG: Another income play. This one will go either way.

pinkboy

 

[pp88]

Re: Tips for 2015

XJO was up 6% including dividends for 2014. not too bad

XJO might be sideway for 2015

 

[issh]

Re: Tips for 2015

hmmm; I'll probably go for

AJX: ($0.485): ALEXIUM INTERNATIONAL GROUP LIMITED
Expecting big things in the eco-friendly fireproof clothing(a wide range of uses); 2014 was a big year, 2015 should be bigger


1PG: ($1.180): 1-PAGE LIMITED
A soon-to-be billion dollar company; is taking on new giant customers every week


CWN: ($12.690): CROWN RESORTS LIMITED
Should be the winning bid for a new casino at Brisbane CBD; against Echo Entertainment though. Announcement of winner released first half of 2015

LNG: ($2.420): LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS LIMITED
Recently announced EPC contract with SK E&C Group
Management and stakeholders indicate LNGL remains on track to close the three major milestones early in 2015:

1) Binding lump sum EPC contract;
2) FERC Notice of Schedule and DEIS;
3)Binding long term tolling agreements.

STO: ($8.250): SANTOS LIMITED
Had a dip on the second half of this year; should bounce back

 

[Muschu]

Re: Tips for 2015

Just for fun:

BOQ
GEM
NVT
WES
MIN