Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015
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Re: Tips for 2015
SBB
STO
RIO
FMG
NCM
DWS
TFC
Thoughts?
SBB
STO
RIO
FMG
NCM
DWS
TFC
Thoughts?
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skc
Goldmember
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Re: Tips for 2015
Great idea.
1. ARI - I think there's some assets in this business that might attract suitors.
2. SEA - Hard not to pick an oil play for this game. SEA is close to the most beaten down stock.
3. QBE - A year of no bad news is sorely needed... and that alone would be enough for a decent rise.
4. MCS - I am still not sure if MCS or VET should win the "Worst float in last 12 months award". But MCS gets into this list for having a lower chance of going belly up.
5. IDT - A small concept pharma stock that has elements of a potential re-rating.
Great idea.
1. ARI - I think there's some assets in this business that might attract suitors.
2. SEA - Hard not to pick an oil play for this game. SEA is close to the most beaten down stock.
3. QBE - A year of no bad news is sorely needed... and that alone would be enough for a decent rise.
4. MCS - I am still not sure if MCS or VET should win the "Worst float in last 12 months award". But MCS gets into this list for having a lower chance of going belly up.
5. IDT - A small concept pharma stock that has elements of a potential re-rating.
Purple XS2
Yamaha 650 XS2
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Re: Tips for 2015
For whomsoever collates these idle thoughts, I humbly offer:
AHZ - Admedus, biotech. 2015 might be the year the market sees a profitable future here, and values accordingly.
BLT - Benitec, biotech. A long way from actually producing anything marketable, but their field may yield stellar results.
AEI - Aeris. Industrial. Services industrial commercial water treatment, air-con. Their niche may find itself profitable.
EOS - Electro-optical systems, industrial. Star Wars, here we come (cue movie theme). They claim to be interested in tracking "space junk". Yeah, right. wink, wink.
AVX - Avexa, biotech. Or is that coal mining? A biotech zombie if ever there was, but hey: zombies are fashionable, and Avexa's weird journey could yet amaze and astound.
Now, if they all come up trumps, I'm buying an island to retire to. I hear "Australia" is for sale...?
Have a super 2015, all.
Regards,
P
For whomsoever collates these idle thoughts, I humbly offer:
AHZ - Admedus, biotech. 2015 might be the year the market sees a profitable future here, and values accordingly.
BLT - Benitec, biotech. A long way from actually producing anything marketable, but their field may yield stellar results.
AEI - Aeris. Industrial. Services industrial commercial water treatment, air-con. Their niche may find itself profitable.
EOS - Electro-optical systems, industrial. Star Wars, here we come (cue movie theme). They claim to be interested in tracking "space junk". Yeah, right. wink, wink.
AVX - Avexa, biotech. Or is that coal mining? A biotech zombie if ever there was, but hey: zombies are fashionable, and Avexa's weird journey could yet amaze and astound.
Now, if they all come up trumps, I'm buying an island to retire to. I hear "Australia" is for sale...?
Have a super 2015, all.
Regards,
P
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Re: Tips for 2015
MEPx5
Why would I dilute my winnings by finding 4 obscure Biotechs
MEPx5
Why would I dilute my winnings by finding 4 obscure Biotechs
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Re: Tips for 2015
First computer I ever hooked a modem up to and went "online" with was one of those. Remember it well. The modem arrived, spent a lot of time reading the books on how to get it working, then had to move the 6128 into the kitchen since that's where the phone socket was.
It didn't connect to the internet as we know it today of course, no such thing as an internet service provider back then, but Viatel was around. Needless to say, I did move the 6128 out of the kitchen fairly soon and ran a phone extension line to it.
Also had a 464 back in the day. Complete with a green screen although I did in due course add a disk drive to it (machine came with tape drive only) as well as a separate 256K memory (set up to work as a second disk drive, though of course you'd lose all data if the machine was turned off). Worked out how to overclock the 464's tape drive too, getting a whopping 4 kbps transfer rate out of it. Good way to lose data doing that, but it usually worked.
Not that anybody under about 35 has a clue what I'm on about....
As for the market in 2015, my tip is oil stocks. The commodity has been beaten down too hard I think.
First computer I ever hooked a modem up to and went "online" with was one of those. Remember it well. The modem arrived, spent a lot of time reading the books on how to get it working, then had to move the 6128 into the kitchen since that's where the phone socket was.
It didn't connect to the internet as we know it today of course, no such thing as an internet service provider back then, but Viatel was around. Needless to say, I did move the 6128 out of the kitchen fairly soon and ran a phone extension line to it.
Also had a 464 back in the day. Complete with a green screen although I did in due course add a disk drive to it (machine came with tape drive only) as well as a separate 256K memory (set up to work as a second disk drive, though of course you'd lose all data if the machine was turned off). Worked out how to overclock the 464's tape drive too, getting a whopping 4 kbps transfer rate out of it. Good way to lose data doing that, but it usually worked.
Not that anybody under about 35 has a clue what I'm on about....
As for the market in 2015, my tip is oil stocks. The commodity has been beaten down too hard I think.
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Re: Tips for 2015
Opps.
STO - Oil low nearing. Get in it. As history shows, get in when their is panic and over the next 5 years lets assume oil recovers.
RIO - Commodity prices will recover one day. Going through a healthy correction. Stick with the blue chips. RIO is great. Keep an eye on this bloke.
OOO - Check out the ETF oil if your bullish on oil long term http://www.betashares.com.au/produc...f-currency-hedged-synthetic/#each-performance
FGM - Same as RIO. Good strong stock.
Overall any minor/major corrections, get into the blue chips mainly.
Opps.
STO - Oil low nearing. Get in it. As history shows, get in when their is panic and over the next 5 years lets assume oil recovers.
RIO - Commodity prices will recover one day. Going through a healthy correction. Stick with the blue chips. RIO is great. Keep an eye on this bloke.
OOO - Check out the ETF oil if your bullish on oil long term http://www.betashares.com.au/produc...f-currency-hedged-synthetic/#each-performance
FGM - Same as RIO. Good strong stock.
Overall any minor/major corrections, get into the blue chips mainly.
Triathlete
Keep it Simple..!
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Re: Tips for 2015
It is still in a confirmed downtrend...no confirmation yet that the trend has changed getting close maybe..time will tell..!!
It is still in a confirmed downtrend...no confirmation yet that the trend has changed getting close maybe..time will tell..!!
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: Tips for 2015
These are my tips for 2015. starting prices as at 31 December 2014:
Fortescue: China's growth may slow but it will not stop. Iron ore will recover above the current price. While profits will dip due to the lower ore prices, increased volumes will still fill the coffers. Fortescue will continue to pay down debt. I see a lot of long term lift in the FMG share price as at 31 December 2014.
In respect of the A-REIT's, I believe that the four listed are presently underrated and have the most scope for lifting their share price above December 31 levels. FDC has a big gap between earnings and distribution. I suspect as they refinance and pay down debt they will free up more cash flow from earnings for dividends.
These are my tips for 2015. starting prices as at 31 December 2014:
| Share | Closing Price | Capital | Earnings $ | ROE | Dist $ | Yield % | P/E | NTA $ | Premium to NTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexus | 6.970 | 6,311,556,625 | 0.4956 | 7.11% | 0.3756 | 5.39% | 14.06 | 6.36 | 9.59% |
| Federation Centres | 2.870 | 4,097,331,292 | 0.3091 | 10.77% | 0.1570 | 5.47% | 9.29 | 2.37 | 21.10% |
| Fortescue Metals | 2.740 | 8,531,806,934 | 0.9342 | 34.09% | 0.2000 | 7.30% | 2.93 | 2.56 | 7.03% |
| Novion Property Group | 2.120 | 6,466,754,141 | 0.1361 | 6.42% | 0.1360 | 6.42% | 15.58 | 1.90 | 11.58% |
| SCA Property Group | 1.855 | 1,203,205,534 | 0.1220 | 6.58% | 0.1080 | 5.82% | 15.20 | 1.57 | 18.15% |
Fortescue: China's growth may slow but it will not stop. Iron ore will recover above the current price. While profits will dip due to the lower ore prices, increased volumes will still fill the coffers. Fortescue will continue to pay down debt. I see a lot of long term lift in the FMG share price as at 31 December 2014.
In respect of the A-REIT's, I believe that the four listed are presently underrated and have the most scope for lifting their share price above December 31 levels. FDC has a big gap between earnings and distribution. I suspect as they refinance and pay down debt they will free up more cash flow from earnings for dividends.
UMike
Klutzing in Thai
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Re: Tips for 2015
Hey great idea.
Should start last week of Jan or first week Feb
Also there should be some sort of reasons behind the pick other than and bunch of 3 letter ASX code rampings.
For better or worse heres mine.
BHP - Oversold. Maybe not at the moment but, By the end of the year should recover to close to last year's high
CVN - Got some great prospects. Also suffered with the drop in the oil Price. back to last year's high would be a %100 rise.
KCN - Very undervalued gold Stock. Taken a beating that not even I think was reasonable. Will bounce if the price of gold recovers.
PAN - Had a massive rise and then drop. I don't know too much about this company. A lot of a spec play in my opinion
QBE - Lucky (maybe) to have bought a massive amount at some very low prices (imo) a must to recover if I'm to have a good year next year.
I hold all except BHP.
Hey great idea.
Should start last week of Jan or first week Feb
Also there should be some sort of reasons behind the pick other than and bunch of 3 letter ASX code rampings.
For better or worse heres mine.
BHP - Oversold. Maybe not at the moment but, By the end of the year should recover to close to last year's high
CVN - Got some great prospects. Also suffered with the drop in the oil Price. back to last year's high would be a %100 rise.
KCN - Very undervalued gold Stock. Taken a beating that not even I think was reasonable. Will bounce if the price of gold recovers.
PAN - Had a massive rise and then drop. I don't know too much about this company. A lot of a spec play in my opinion
QBE - Lucky (maybe) to have bought a massive amount at some very low prices (imo) a must to recover if I'm to have a good year next year.
I hold all except BHP.
Re: Tips for 2015
I'm new here, so if this works for paying my dues, I'll track it. Here's a few suggested rules, including the rationale. Suggestions welcome (depending on workload)
Any 5 companies from ASX, minimum $0.10 at contest opening
- suggested earlier, easy to track, one currency
- minimum $0.10 includes plenty of choice
Final choices by midnight Jan 16, opening value based on January 16, 2015 close
- suggested to allow time
- soon though, because some players have already picked, and anyone relying on the share market right now is paying attention while on holidays
- Allow those who have already picked to make changes by same deadline.
Optional - reason for choice in forum entry
- suggested earlier for educational value
- some people may prefer not, or be unable, to provide reasons
Each pick equally weighted
- ease of tracking
Dividends added as a cash balance without income
- ease of tracking
Updated monthly, closing price on last trading day of each month.
Final valuation, January 15, 2016 close
- evens it out to 12 months, and no work for me around New Year's
*eyes covered, hoping there's lots of overlapping picks
I'm new here, so if this works for paying my dues, I'll track it. Here's a few suggested rules, including the rationale. Suggestions welcome (depending on workload)
Any 5 companies from ASX, minimum $0.10 at contest opening
- suggested earlier, easy to track, one currency
- minimum $0.10 includes plenty of choice
Final choices by midnight Jan 16, opening value based on January 16, 2015 close
- suggested to allow time
- soon though, because some players have already picked, and anyone relying on the share market right now is paying attention while on holidays
- Allow those who have already picked to make changes by same deadline.
Optional - reason for choice in forum entry
- suggested earlier for educational value
- some people may prefer not, or be unable, to provide reasons
Each pick equally weighted
- ease of tracking
Dividends added as a cash balance without income
- ease of tracking
Updated monthly, closing price on last trading day of each month.
Final valuation, January 15, 2016 close
- evens it out to 12 months, and no work for me around New Year's
*eyes covered, hoping there's lots of overlapping picks
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Re: Tips for 2015
Gosh, that's kind of you.
If you really want to do it - I think you've got a nice and easy set of rules.
The only thing I'd suggest, is if the closing time for tips is midnight Jan 16, that you maybe ought to use Monday's open price as the buy price (in which case the closing time for tips could maybe be Sunday 18 Jan)...but happy either way. If you're willing to track it for everyone, that makes it a lot more fun!
Gosh, that's kind of you.
If you really want to do it - I think you've got a nice and easy set of rules.
The only thing I'd suggest, is if the closing time for tips is midnight Jan 16, that you maybe ought to use Monday's open price as the buy price (in which case the closing time for tips could maybe be Sunday 18 Jan)...but happy either way. If you're willing to track it for everyone, that makes it a lot more fun!
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Re: Tips for 2015
If needsajet is going to track this for everyone I'll re-submit to include "any stocks"
On the non-comp / 'whatever' basis...here are my 5 from the ASX300, in alpha order...
API Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd*
LLC Lend Lease Group*
NUF Nufarm Limited*
QAN Qantas Airways Limited*
TGA Thorn Group Limited*
I'll take them on open, Friday 9 Jan...
If needsajet is going to track this for everyone I'll re-submit to include "any stocks"
On the non-comp / 'whatever' basis...here are my 5 from the ASX300, in alpha order...
API Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd*
LLC Lend Lease Group*
NUF Nufarm Limited*
QAN Qantas Airways Limited*
TGA Thorn Group Limited*
I'll take them on open, Friday 9 Jan...
Logique
Investor
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Re: Tips for 2015
My picks for 2015 are:
AMM - Amcom Tele
BHP - BHP
FMG - Fortescue Metals
ILU - Iluka Resources
STO - Santos
So if there's a multi-year resources Bear, I'm in trouble.
Thanks Needsajet for that offer to track it all for us. Don't want to load you up unnecessarily, but quarterly updates would be great.
My picks for 2015 are:
AMM - Amcom Tele
BHP - BHP
FMG - Fortescue Metals
ILU - Iluka Resources
STO - Santos
So if there's a multi-year resources Bear, I'm in trouble.
Thanks Needsajet for that offer to track it all for us. Don't want to load you up unnecessarily, but quarterly updates would be great.
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Re: Tips for 2015
Looking only at smaller market caps <200m I have....
AOH Altona Mining Limited
LAU Lindsay Australia Limited
PTL Pental Ltd.
REX Regional Express Holdings Limited
RND Rand Mining Limited
Looking only at smaller market caps <200m I have....
AOH Altona Mining Limited
LAU Lindsay Australia Limited
PTL Pental Ltd.
REX Regional Express Holdings Limited
RND Rand Mining Limited
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Re: Tips for 2015
needsajet, feel free to monitor my large and small cap " tips" if you want...
However, these are my comp entries based on "all stocks" - entering now in case I don't get a chance next weekend.
APN APN News & Media Limited
AIZ Air New Zealand Limited
ASB Austal Limited
REX Regional Express Holdings Limited
LAU Lindsay Australia Limited
Purely for interest sake; if REX and LAU were considered too low volume (which I know is not a criteria in the comp, I would replace them with LLC and TSE
needsajet, feel free to monitor my large and small cap " tips" if you want...
However, these are my comp entries based on "all stocks" - entering now in case I don't get a chance next weekend.
APN APN News & Media Limited
AIZ Air New Zealand Limited
ASB Austal Limited
REX Regional Express Holdings Limited
LAU Lindsay Australia Limited
Purely for interest sake; if REX and LAU were considered too low volume (which I know is not a criteria in the comp, I would replace them with LLC and TSE
Re: Tips for 2015
Will do and thanks for everyone's explanations of their picks.
I can see a couple of questions we'll need feedback about.
1. Some contestants chose less than 5 stocks. I suggest we equally weight whatever is picked. If it's one stock, 100% on that one. If it's 4 stocks then 25% each. For those who have picked 5 stocks, 20% each.
2. Some choices are thinly traded. I suggest we start the value at the first trade after the chosen opening value. I suggest we do the final value on the last trade before our closing time.
Will do and thanks for everyone's explanations of their picks.
I can see a couple of questions we'll need feedback about.
1. Some contestants chose less than 5 stocks. I suggest we equally weight whatever is picked. If it's one stock, 100% on that one. If it's 4 stocks then 25% each. For those who have picked 5 stocks, 20% each.
2. Some choices are thinly traded. I suggest we start the value at the first trade after the chosen opening value. I suggest we do the final value on the last trade before our closing time.
