THR - Thor Energy

[jman2007]

Seems unable to sustain support in the 37-38c range, market obviously unwilling to assign more value to these guys until offtake agreement secured I suspect. Seems to be limited downside under about 31c to this stock at the moment, perhaps will see more sideways trending until we here some postive news fom THR re Molyhill

Back to where we left off 2 and half months ago, with sp back to 32.5c, decent support seems to lie around here. Healthy volume going through today, 700,000 shares changing hands. Expecting the dup results from the latest round of drilling at Moly Hill soon perhaps?

Thoughts?

 

[jman2007]

Got smashed today on the back of a somewhat disappointing/confusing resource extn for Molyhil, basically announcing an overall increase in the resource estimate, but leaving the metal content of the resource model unchanged by using more conservative parameters....

Am I the only one confused here?!

Quote from announcement: "The resource model now contains 8.4 million pounds of molybdenum metal and 1,276,200 mtu’s of tungsten, representing a similar metal content to the previous resource but at a higher JORC resource category".

Granted the confidence levels of the resource have increased somewhat, but this release is just a bit vague for my liking. I know Molyhil IS a poject of significant promise, but these guys seriously need to get something happening over the next 2 months. The poblems of debt financing these kind of specialty metals projects are well known, due to to thin markets etc, hence the new Thor strategy of seeking a JV partner for this project.

Until the smoke clears from this US fallout, I think we'll see a lot of Market unforgiveness and scepticism towards speculative stocks, which until recently have found the market an easy source of funds.

What say you fellow Thor-ites?... am I over-reacting here?

 

[jman2007]

Thought I'd dust of this one again,

Could be some good news for Thor-ites around the corner, as it looks like momentum could be building up again:

"Thor is continuing negotiations with a number of short listed parties, including a leading international metals trader, regarding the completion of a suitable off-take agreement" (THR release, dated 25th Sept 2007).

Continuing along the positive vein (pardon the pun), environmental approval has been granted for Molyhill and clearance has also been given by the Central Land Council. The mining management plan is also being drawn up, and is the final step before mining approval is granted.

I'm guessing that the interested parties were seeking a more robust financial plan given the re-evaluation of the ore estimates. Currently, Thor are targeting a 400,000 tpa operation with a mine-life in excess of 5 years. This is subject to change in light of the re-modelled finances however, and interestingly, Thor are highlighting the area outside of the optimised pit zone as part of an underground conceptual study.

In many ways, I'm not really surprised at the delays we have seen this year, this has been a common occurrence across the specialty metals sector given the difficult nature of these projects to debt finance, mainly due to thin markets. As far as I know, Queensland Ores is the only fully-funded Mo and W development project at this point in time in Aust. I do believe Molyhill is a project of merit however.

Cheers
jman2007

 

[jman2007]

Just had a phone interview with John Young, MD of Thor Mining PLC,

A few points:

1.) The financial re-modeling is basically being being undertaken due to the latest resource calculation that was completed a some weeks ago. The premises of the model are basically a 400,000 tpa operation over 5 years, or a 300,000 tpa operation, presumably over a longer period. The model uses a spot price for Moly of around $32 US/lb, and incoroporates the 2nd hand equipment purchased in 2006, such as the grinding mill.

2.) John said there are several parties interested in offtake negotiations, including a party from England, he is flying to Melbourne on Wed for discussions with a group there. He is very keen to conclude negotiations by the end of this month at the latest, and rapidly swing into production. Like many shareholders, he is keen to put the delays of the past 5-6 months behind him! Moly prices are expected to remain strong untill 2011-12 in his opinion.

3.) Hunan apparently withdrew from the MOU in April due to dissatisfaction with the way the resource was calculated, although significantly, they did not incorporate two latest rounds of drilling into their calculations, he said they never gave a clear indication to THR as to why they withdrew.

4.) While clearly excited about the coming weeks, he is disappointed at the shareprice, and feels THR should be up around the 28c mark (obviously open to debate however).

I'd be glad to answer other questions from ASF members if I can.

Cheers!
jman2007

 

[surfingman]

THOR SIGNS KEY MINING AGREEMENT FOR MOLYHIL

- Landmark Native Title Mining Agreement signed with Eastern Arrernte
indigenous people.
- Agreement clears the way for granting of Molyhil Mining Leases and project
development to proceed.
- Mining Agreement structured to ensure that employment, training and other
benefits from the Molyhil Project will flow back to the local community.

The Company is currently in the process of finalising a Mining Reserve for the Molyhil Project, as well as an off-take and project financing agreement. The Project is anticipated to be a 400,000tpa mining and processing operation with an initial 5-year mine life. The total investment is anticipated to be in excess of A$60 million, with the project expected to generate significant employment opportunities during construction and operation.

Share price .245

Taken from previous announcement:

-New JORC compliant reserve and results of financial modelling targeted
for completion by mid October 2007.

-Off-take agreement with a major metals trader expected to be concluded
shortly. Thor has short listed potential partners who are now eagerly
awaiting the final reserve and financial results.

could be an good one to put on the watch list

 

[jman2007]

Still watching this with interest,

The signing of the agreement with the Eastern Arrernte indigenous people was basically the final hurdle to overcome before granting of the mining lease.

I've been a big supporter of this project for a while now, hopefully all holders patience will be rewarded over the coming weeks as the eagerly anticipated offtake negotiations are wound up (imo). Could be a few people sitting on the sidelines waiting to see where this one is heading...

Good luck to all THR holders.

Cheers
jman2007

 

[sigmadelta]

The process is mining reserve, followed by offtake agreement. After the events earlier this year, many would believe the sidelines is probably a good place to be for now. Getting the reserve figures is just a matter of time, a few days as I am told by John Barr. After which the offtake negotiations will firm up. There are several interested parties, and I believe an agreement would trigger buying.

 

[hongwong]

I would look at this stock. With the title agreement out the way, Thor now has something of value. No person would partner with Thor if Thor did not have the rights to mine due to native titles rights.

Imagine if the Chinese invest in the mine back then, it would have taken 6 months to get the title right. So the management at Thor are not that switch on.. Hopefully they have learnt their lessons.

Now I believe the Chinese will be interested, just hope Thor do not stuff up this time around.

 

[popy]

I agree whole heartedly, the management have made mistakes in the past but there is no chance of making the same mistakes again. The prospects for Thor Mining were very exciting indeed 12 months ago. Nothing has changed 12 months on. A few setbacks does not mean the exciting times will not eventuate!! The chinese will be very interested now everything is sorted.

 

[jman2007]

Well there have been a few changes in the last 12 months,

The updated resource model now supports a mine life in excess of 5 years, which is a significant improvement over earlier forecasts.

Additionally I don't necessarily believe the setbacks were all due to the inability of THR management. The Hunan withdrawal from the MOU in April imo is a typical example of the lack of transperancy in Chinese business practices in general. To quote from my earliert post "Hunan apparently withdrew from the MOU in April due to dissatisfaction with the way the resource was calculated, although significantly, they did not incorporate two latest rounds of drilling into their calculations, he (John) said they never gave a clear indication to THR as to why they withdrew".

The negotiations that were terminated with Penfolds earlier this year (offtake negotiations) is also fairly typical of the many problems the players in the specialty metals sector have faced. In all cases, delays across the board are common due to the notoriously difficult nature of these projects to debt finance, mainly due to thin markets.

The next few months could be exciting however.

Cheers
jman2007

 

[jman2007]

Once again this stock has been MIA for a while, seems to have found some baseline support at 20c though. Getting a bit impatient with THR management now, the next few weeks could be make or break for the company with offtake negotations expexted to be completed this month, financing alternatives for Molyhill also being sought. Bit of a waiting game at the moment tbh.

 

[hongwong]

just wait man .... no need to get impatient. look at the volume and price.

I think the big players are holding onto this stock and not dumping it.

i know i have bought a truck load of this stock so i am in the same boat as u

 

[jman2007]

just wait man .... no need to get impatient. look at the volume and price.

I think the big players are holding onto this stock and not dumping it.

i know i have bought a truck load of this stock so i am in the same boat as u

Yeah just great,

While I'm sitting looking at volumes the sp has just tanked again. Not that THR is the lone ranger in this regard of course. Not usually one for cynicism, but it certainly puts my discussion with THR management back in Oct 2007 into perspective.

jman :swear:

 

[jman2007]

Substansial progress being made here,

"THR signs Molyhill Offtake Agreement"

Life-of-Mine offtake agreement signed with CITIC, one of China largest state-owned companies. Imo, this is a fantastic result for THR, and provides some well deserved relief for the long suffering investors, in what were clearly some very long and protracted negotiations.

There is a very interesting synergy between the Chinese steel industry and specialty metals projects, particularly moly and tungsten. CITIC are obviously trying to form a number of strategic alliances with these types of companies in Australia, the CITIC arrangement with QOL's Wolfram Camp deposit being another example.

Ok, sure the funding arrangements are yet to be finalised, but with offtake now secured, this should make progress substansially easier on this front.

jman

 

[prawn_86]

THR's market cap is now more than that of QOL. (Thanks Joooles)

Yet another market inefficiency

One would suggest that this could mean that THR is over priced, due to the fact that QOL already have an offtake agreement in place and are due to ship product in July.

 

[jman2007]

THR's market cap is now more than that of QOL. (Thanks Joooles)

Yet another market inefficiency

One would suggest that this could mean that THR is over priced, due to the fact that QOL already have an offtake agreement in place and are due to ship product in July.

Not necessarily Prawn,

The Molyhill financial model is based on a mill throughout of 400,000tpa compared to QOL's 150,000tpa model. Also bear in mind that THR's moly and tungsten reserves are of superior grade to that of QOL's, in the former case a combined grade of 0.51%. The CITIC offtake is also valid for the entire mine life of Molyhill.

Thors model is obviously sensitive to a number of input parameters, but the base case scenario suggests an operating cashflow of A$116M for the project, after tax and royalties and before CAPEX. Therefore a net cashflow of A$45M is predicted (predicted CAPEX A$71M).

With THR's acquistion of Hale Energy (a previous spin-off of Batavia mining) they have another string to their bow, with ongoing U exploration. Admittedly this has not contributed much value to the sp and may in some way have acted as more of a distraction for management as Molyhill is, and remains their prime focus.

Obviously being a holder of both QOL and THR, I am convinced both projects are of considerable merit however

jman

 

[hongwong]

THR's market cap is now more than that of QOL. (Thanks Joooles)

Yet another market inefficiency

One would suggest that this could mean that THR is over priced, due to the fact that QOL already have an offtake agreement in place and are due to ship product in July.

doesnt QOL need cash injection or it will be going broke ?
(Please dont hold me to this)

Need some press coverage on this stuff

Thor has an offtake agreement for the life of the mine and waiting for the Big U to come out !

 

[Albi]

Is any one holding this stock? This is looking pretty tempted. I have been watching for a while and doing good in market. Any idea or contribution to this thread will be appreciated.

 

[noco]

Does anyone know why this stock has doubled in price in the last couple of weeks?

 

[noirua]

LSE announcement 30 minutes ago: Thor have found promising Gold and copper values at their drilling of the Dundas Project in WA. The shares rose 22% on the announcement.
See LSE ann at 11.42am London time.
[London does not have trading halts for anns]