The worst is yet to come

[hitmanlam]

2 May 2007

FTSE 100 is down by -80 points. US futures suggest market would be down -100 points.

Australia might follow overseas markets tommorrow and it looks like it's going to be another down day for tommorrow.

http://www.cnbc.com/

 

[borat]

here we go again, DOW down 200 on open... bit of rough weather to were yet while sensitivity is aloof...

 

[theasxgorilla]

Australia might follow overseas markets tommorrow and it looks like it's going to be another down day for tommorrow.

Note to self, 'go to bed now so you can get up in time to be at a computer screen at 10am ready to place pre-decided short orders'.

 

[dhukka]

2 May 2007

FTSE 100 is down by -80 points. US futures suggest market would be down -100 points.

Australia might follow overseas markets tommorrow and it looks like it's going to be another down day for tommorrow.

http://www.cnbc.com/

Thanks for the heads up about 2nd May hitman, doesn't hurt to be prepared.

 

[hitmanlam]

OOOUUUUCHH. US just opened, Dow Falls - 200 points. FTSE just dropped another 20 points on news of the US fall. Looks like ASX is going to get hammered tommorrow.

I knew it! Correction never last just for one day!!!

 

[Kimosabi]

There was also renewed concern that the yen carry trade, which has been a major source of funding for investors globally, might be subsiding.

In addition, rumors that a big lender was in distress were floating around the market, according to research firm Action Economics.
Amid concerns over the health of the mortgage lending market, SunTrust Banks (STI : SunTrust Banks, Inc) revised down its fourth-quarter earnings to $498.6 million, or $1.39 a share, from the previously reported $523.6 million, or $1.46 a share, following the resolution of a previously reported large non-performing loan.

Also, the latest news on U.S. inflation, showing a 0.3% rise in core inflation, confirmed the Federal Reserve's view that inflation remains a critical risk to the economy. See full story.

"Investors are worried about the strength in the economy and the Fed's assumption that housing has hit bottom," said Pado.

At 10 a.m. Eastern, another important indicator is due for release, the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing gauge for February, which may have rose to the 50% mark from 49.3% in January.

Before that data wave, the dollar dropped about 1% against the Japanese yen, after the International Monetary Fund reiterated concerns about yen carry trades, while the buck was up about 0.1% on the euro.

Gold futures rose $1.40 to $673.80 an ounce. Oil futures slipped 14 cents to $61.65 a barrel.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={ADD60353-5360-4F20-BFC4-F5CBF960D81E}

 

[chris1983]

67 points down now..like a yoyo

 

[noirua]

Some may consider a healthy pull back in the ASX 200 to be about 30% of the 4 year gain - 5,100 approx.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

It will hold off as long as it can.....greed, could be some forced to squeel yet.

 

[Kimosabi]

Maybe this is the new world order, the US Stock Market follows China's lead...

 

[wayneL]

Maybe this is the new world order, the US Stock Market follows China's lead...

Haha! Interesting thought. They do seem to be hand feeding economic power to the Chinese.

Treasonous I would have thought.

 

[ducati916]

67 points down now..like a yoyo

The return of volatility, hallmark of the bear lurking in wait.

jog on
d998

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

ATM China don't have any market or dynamics to provide a lead.....really!, a good while to go yet. Think the big picture.

Anyway may present some opportunities trading wise and ATM it hasn't effected squat over here in the scheme of things.....

Look at the charts of what youre holding....plenty of downside to even get close to knocking a third off a ridiculous decent long position of the last 6 months.

 

[chris1983]

Never know it could go green. The recession everyone is talking about seems to still be a fair bit away yet.


"NEW YORK - Wall Street tried to stage a comeback Thursday, with the Dow Jones industrials erasing much of an earlier 209-point drop after a stronger-than-expected reading of the Institute for Supply Management’s assessment of manufacturing activity in February.

Investors showed their relief about manufacturing by buying some of the stocks that were pummeled in Tuesday’s drop that sliced 416 points off the Dow. Fears about the U.S. economy contributed to that plunge, and a halfhearted rebound on Wednesday followed soothing words from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The ISM figure of 52.3 was stronger than the 50.0 reading analysts had been expecting. The index is an important measure of a part of the economy that has given investors headaches in recent months. Manufacturing has struggled and at times given off signals that a recession might be in the offing. A reading at 50 and above indicates expansion, while anything below 50 signals contraction."

 

[Kimosabi]

ATM China don't have any market or dynamics to provide a lead.....really!, a good while to go yet. Think the big picture.

Anyway may present some opportunities trading wise and ATM it hasn't effected squat over here in the scheme of things.....

Look at the charts of what youre holding....plenty of downside to even get close to knocking a third off a ridiculous decent long position of the last 6 months.

I was joking, the chinese just triggered the "Sell-off we had to Have!"

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

A lot of people playing with little real money but leveraged to the hilt = the derivative market coming unstuck. Not sure on the leverage rate but Its astronomical

Low interest rates and low inflation ATM why is this necessary?. Its not but add a bit of automation and big ego's in control of fantasy levarage that they haven't worked an iota for and any sign of distress and they will squeel.


I will stick to my real stocks, in a real market, driven by real fundamentals with my own money and market forces will come to the fore.....they are to strong in commodities .

 

[wayneL]

A lot of people playing with little real money but leveraged to the hilt = the derivative market coming unstuck. Not sure on the leverage rate but Its astronomical

Low interest rates and low inflation ATM why is this necessary?. Its not but add a bit of automation and big ego's in control of fantasy levarage that they haven't worked an iota for and any sign of distress and they will squeel.


I will stick to my real stocks, in a real market, driven by real fundamentals with my own money and market forces will come to the fore.....they are to strong in commodities .

You must recognize then, that it is the kiddies playing with leverage (and hedge funds doing the same) that has driven the price of your investments up.

By happily accepting the benefit of such when things are bullish, you should likewise accept the downside as we are seeing now without complaint.

If you can see yourself holding these ad infinitum, I don't understand why you are worried.

Write some calls on them until you think the next leg is going to happen, make the pieces of overpriced crap work for you!

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Still waiting for the dust to settle but I have dipped my toes in and have happily posted Wayne.

The reason my investments have gone up is the fundamentals that have driven them and a squillion little asians needing said commodities. As with anything you can only fake it so long and the Stockmarket is just one big magnifying glass that wants to see the bottom line at some point......usually reporting season

The vast majority of my stocks have been entered before all the leveregd freebies jumped on the bandwagon........certainly admit to trading a few of the nice jumps the leveregd persuasion provide. Just keeping it all as simple as possable>cause really its as simple as selling for more than you bought!. Despite how complicated some seem to make it.

No doubt they will come back on the bandwagon in the not to distant future because the same fundamentals are still their....they just need to deal with this mad scramble and be the first ass out the door before.......not the last greedy pig. The man with the real money won't be happy then.

And as you know Wayne, Hedge funds arent necessary....they are just another example of greed, like the derivative players....they will come unstuck too. Simple supply vs demand in the current marketplace on its own to drive up prices in commodities.

 

[wayneL]

And as you know Wayne, Hedge funds arent necessary....they are just another example of greed, like the derivative players....they will come unstuck too. Simple supply vs demand in the current marketplace on its own to drive up prices in commodities.

To an extent yes, but speculation has driven it a lot harder than it desreved. Not just in the commod markets themselves but in the end user markets.

Be careful what you wish for though. If the hedge funds blow up en masse, it will be truly an ugly thing for investors.

BTW Whats wrong with derivative players? We're not all greedy. Just cutting an honest living Not all derivatives players are adrenalin junkies ah-lah Amaranth/Nick Leeson out to make a billion by tommorrow or go down in flames trying. (Though there are plenty of those about, but they're usually playing with OPM)

They were in fact created to hedge risk.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

To an extent yes, but speculation has driven it a lot harder than it desreved. Not just in the commod markets themselves but in the end user markets.

Be careful what you wish for though. If the hedge funds blow up en masse, it will be truly an ugly thing for investors.

BTW Whats wrong with derivative players? We're not all greedy. Just cutting an honest living Not all derivatives players are adrenalin junkies ah-lah Amaranth/Nick Leeson out to make a billion by tommorrow or go down in flames trying. (Though there are plenty of those about, but they're usually playing with OPM)

They were in fact created to hedge risk.

In full agreement