The worst is yet to come

[2020hindsight]

Every day I learn something new on this forum.

ditto
as for whether it's the beginning of the end or not,
anyone remember Winston, when he said (after Battle of Britain I imagine)
"this is not the end,
nor even the beginnning of the end, ..
but friends,
it is the end of the beginning!!"

relevance - buggered if I know (but I suspect we're all guessing anyway lol)

 

[wintermute]

Personally I doubt we are in for a bear market (yet), the market was due to correct (based on Technical analysis, I posted a graph before showing RSI and it's correlation to previous corrections) however I think there is too much money around and people will view this current blip as the correction we had to have, and it now being safe to re-enter with a gusto. The market will quickly rebound and continue on to stratospheric heights, THEN will come a crash and it will be largely unexpected, because people will think "but we already had the correction!!".

Alan Koher on the ABC news the other night made the interesting comment about $30 billion dollars that will be going to shareholders of Qantas and Coles Myer which is going to need to find a home. I think this was just before the current down turn. The events in China that triggered this in IMO have no consequential effects, the worlds markets were just on a hair trigger and anything was going to set them off. I believe that once people realise that the only thing that has happened in china is that some speculative/gambling money has been drained out of the market, and that there is no real effect on their economy, that the Bull market will resume.

I do think the chances of a crash are reasonably high but I don't believe just now.... give it another 6-12 months IMO.

Of course I could be way off the mark as this is an oppinion only and I certainly don't have a great knowledge of economics, world events, or other such things, just going with a gut feel

Tony.

 

[bunyip]

Many of you will know of Bill McLaren, whose claim to fame is that he's considered one of the foremost authorities in the world on Gann analysis.

Bill recently spoke at an ATAA meeting I attended. His take on the markets was that 2007 will be a bearish year that sets up a bullish year in 2008.
As I understood it, his view was based on long term cycles using Gann analysis.

I have no idea if this year or next year or any other year will be bullish or bearish or flat or whatever. And from my perspective it doesn't matter much one way or the other. As a trader I can profit from both rising and falling markets, as long as I can find stocks that are strongly trending. And in my more than 12 years of market experience, that's never been a problem. Regardless of market sentiment, there are ALWAYS strongly trending stocks offering good profit opportunities for astute traders.

If I was a longer term buy/hold/accumulate type of investor, (which I am in a small number of stocks), then here again the state of the market shouldn't cause me undue concern. Plunging stocks prices mean that quality assets are available at discounted prices....surely this is not such a bad scenario for someone with a long term investment horizon. Afterall, quality companies should be worth more in the future.....IF you can hold them long enough.

I guess there's one type of investor who might might cop some grief from a plunging market.....anyone using margin loans to buy stocks, and who has no risk control in place, could find him/herself on the end of some nasty losses due to margin calls.

Bunyip

 

[ice]

I think bunyip sums it up pretty well.

If you're a short or even medium term trader, who cares what the market will do in the distant future?
The market we have to deal with is the one we have today....well, Monday.
All the rest is just froth and bubble.

ice

 

[money tree]

In March of 2003 bank stocks were yielding in excess of 8% including franking credits.

As I recall, resource stocks bottomed around June 2003 (I remember buying BHP @ $8 and getting stopped out on RIO @ $27.80) not sure what the yields were, but must have been high.

I wont buy a stock unless it is self-funding. ie, the divs are high enough to pay the interest on the loan.

 

[money tree]

Dow down 120 Fri night

must be some nervous newbies.....

 

[ROE]

Keep dropping I dont mind.. I'm ready to load up for the right price..
A few stocks I got my eyes on and as it continue to drop, more buying power for me.

Wouldnt mind if it goes back to 5000 or 4000

 

[money tree]

Nikkei more than 2% down

 

[Wysiwyg]

Keep dropping I dont mind.. I'm ready to load up for the right price..
A few stocks I got my eyes on and as it continue to drop, more buying power for me.

Wouldnt mind if it goes back to 5000 or 4000

I agree with this comment...my mistake with previous corrections was jumping in too soon.

 

[Dukey]

My punt is an absolute bottom of 5400ish xao.
Unless it smashes through there - I'll be bargain hunting.

Whats on the shopping list guys??

I'm watching OXR especially. Seemed to have just turned up nicely when this correction kicked in. Pretty good results + Agincourt gold T/O.

But... not..... yet....
Gotta wait for some better signs from the market....
-dukey

 

[Struzball]

My punt is an absolute bottom of 5400ish xao.
Unless it smashes through there - I'll be bargain hunting.

Same. I bought the day of the crash and the day after, but I'll put the money lost down to a lesson learnt. But when (if?) it gets to 5400-5450 I'll be buying some more, if I'm not broke by then.

 

[money tree]

5400 = 10% drop

come on, thats barely a correction.

we will see 4500's

we have come from 2700 but 5400 is the worst you think it can get?

consider this:

Australia just announced a record trade deficit. Thats during the biggest resources boom ever, ie when we are exporting our butts off. What happens when China slows down? Or the U.S enters recession?

 

[Dukey]

Moneytree - you could well be right - and if xao falls through 5400ish - you probably will be on the money (and I won't be going shopping for a while longer) . The long term average is certainly way down there somewhere. I guess I'm not yet subscribing to 'Rabid Bear' & I dont think those kindof of levels will happen just yet. But who knows.
Somethings gotta give....????

 

[Techbuy]

I just lock down when things get bad and get prepared for a slow recovery. in 100 years of history the market comes back, some times quickly and some shares take more time but generally no more that a couple of years to get back to the same levels or higher.
No doubt some will go to the wall and I hope I have missed most of those.
All the doom and gloom about where the market will drop to does not help but make better buying oportunities for many that can read the market movements and are prepared to buy in when the SP is at a level they see value.

 

[nizar]

My punt is an absolute bottom of 5400ish xao.
Unless it smashes through there - I'll be bargain hunting.

I agree with 5400.
But if it falls through that, then this 4 year bullmarket is over?
I would definately NOT be buying.

 

[CanOz]

This has got to be the worst intraday chart I've ever seen, theres no support what so ever.

Sorry I can't post the XJO.

 

[professor_frink]

This has got to be the worst intraday chart i've ever seen, theres no support what so ever.

Sorry i can't post the XJO.

As bad as that looks, we are still performing better than the rest of Asia today
It's looking very ugly right now for anyone still long

 

[nizar]

As bad as that looks, we are still performing better than the rest of Asia today
It's looking very ugly right now for anyone still long

The Nikkei is getting hammered bad.

 

[professor_frink]

The Nikkei is getting hammered bad.

yep.
Hang Seng is even worse-- they just went to lunch down nearly 600

 

[gordon2007]

Well I must consider myself extremely lucky. I've been reading and reading for 2 months now. Finally bought into hlx a few weeks ago during it's run. Sold out and made a nice $10K profit. My one and only trade. I was going to buy into other things but well we all know what happened. I'll probably get killed on taxes but I'm not wise enough in the market right now to know how to handle a short or long term correction, so I'll just sit this out and hope to learn from it for future corrections.