The transition to Futures trading

[mr. jeff]

The point is its trading R/R not simply the initial R/R.
If you can get on momentum then you can move your stop to B/E pretty quickly.

Yes agreed and understood, but when you take a trade you must have some expectancy as a target
ie. right now on XAO someone might take a trade at 4700 looking for a rebound up again to 4745
that is 45 pts -you would not be looking for a move of 150pts unless using trailing stop.

But what is the stop initially at which you will consider the rebound has not occurred ? I know it depends on current market action to a degree, but is it 5/10/50 pts - here if you were chasing those 45 pts, then 15 would be about right... 1r:3r with move stop up to 4700 once price reaches 4715

 

[tech/a]

Also tech/pav, any suggested reading to get me up to speed on this. Tech I've read most of your threads/stickes, but any other books you recommend?

Youll hear this from time to time but really my style has been developed over 20 yrs.
Its simply Patterns Support/Resistance Chart landscape (Where the chart is at in terms of trend)
and for right hand page stuff Range and Volume.

Then and very importantly its trade and portfolio management.
You wont profit without BOTH.

So anything you can get your hands on --- on those topics--for discretionary trading this way.
Ive highlighted them.

Finally find people that do trade this way and pay to watch them and learn---I did and still do!

 

[CanOz]

I don't know how you can analyze this chart if you don't know what time frame and instrument it is. Its fine to be generic and say that volume analysis works on all instruments on all time frames, but session opens and closes matter...news etc.

Or did i miss something...is this CL?

CanOz

 

[boofis]

Or did i miss something...is this CL?

CanOz

I could be wrong but I think it's the AUS 10 year bond....is there a prize for the correct guess *fingers crossed*

If it is, they typically don't chart well cause the majority of people trading them aren't retail mind you, they're better than the US 10 yr.

 

[tech/a]

Yes agreed and understood, but when you take a trade you must have some expectancy as a target
ie. right now on XAO someone might take a trade at 4700 looking for a rebound up again to 4745
that is 45 pts -you would not be looking for a move of 150pts unless using trailing stop.

But what is the stop initially at which you will consider the rebound has not occurred ? I know it depends on current market action to a degree, but is it 5/10/50 pts - here if you were chasing those 45 pts, then 15 would be about right... 1r:3r with move stop up to 4700 once price reaches 4715

Jeff

I dont pre empt possible moves I simply dont know.
Last nights little banter between T/H and I about where it was going wasnt just a joke!
What I do know is my final bottom line after trades are closed.
Its not a system so I have no blue print.---well I do from my own trades and others I pay to watch!

I know its difficult to get your head around but im looking for potential Momentum.
Last nights trade I didnt get it---got bored and left.
PAV DID!

So the width of initial stop doesnt matter unless your so wrong it doubles back on you so quick you cant move your stop! Frankly do that a few times and you better look at how you anticipate momentum.

There is only 1R I care about and thats the accumulated Loss R.
Rarely do I get taken out from scratch.

I know where your coming from but Im more fliud than what your suggesting.

 

[kid hustlr]

I could be wrong but I think it's the AUS 10 year bond....is there a prize for the correct guess *fingers crossed*

If it is, they typically don't chart well cause the majority of people trading them aren't retail mind you, they're better than the US 10 yr.

lol, yeah its Aussie 10 year bonds. I think I wrote that in one of my earlier posts.

Interesting thoughts DJG, I tend to agree.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't know how you can analyze this chart if you don't know what time frame and instrument it is. Its fine to be generic and say that volume analysis works on all instruments on all time frames, but session opens and closes matter...news etc.

Or did i miss something...is this CL?

CanOz

Completely agree with this, but that's not to say there aren't principles which are consistently effective. One thing which appeals to me and in my limited experience is looking at periods of high volume vs low volume. One of the major reasons I took that trade this morning was the heavy volume that had gone on yesterday (there was serious buying on the DOM most of the day). I felt if we broke through the lower end there was a chance I might catch some stops.

 

[CanOz]

Ahh, thanks for the explanation guys...

 

[kid hustlr]

Just to finish up the discussion, here's how the day finished. we bounced at 96.06 (which I did note as an important area) and ran all the way back up the top of the recent range.

Now to look for the next trade!

tech/a, pav, im planning on post more trades in this thread, if it bothers you let me know and I will post in a different thread.

 

[tech/a]

Look at both ends of that move!
stops spiked on both!

Nice trade.
very organised.

 

[kid hustlr]

Look at both ends of that move!
stops spiked on both!

Nice trade.
very organised.

Yeah it was an excellent example of opportunities. I think watching the depth would have really helped experienced trader here as well. There was a heavy seller in the contract around the 96.105 mark. They would wait, let it retrace back to them and then hit it again for a few half ticks. Once he cleared out the last 4-5 bars were completely bid up as a combination of (in my opinion) proper paper buying and stops. I almost set a buy stop order at 96.11 but I felt the risk/reward was not there.

 

[tech/a]

Got home early today for a run and managed to get on.
Just a 2 Mini's
Will be back to see how I go.
The risk is a test of this low and I get taken out at B/E
If there isn't enough momentum in the longs.



Thought there was a FTSE thread?

 

[CanOz]

Dax is a bit bullish this arvo, filling the gap pre cash, then testing the prior POC after the open, to break higher and head for 7900 ish...suspect the FTSE must be doing similar?

 

[mr. jeff]

No the FTSE is hitting it's head on a short time resistance level
If that breaks there is a canter to be had

 

[Trembling Hand]

Just to finish up the discussion, here's how the day finished. we bounced at 96.06 (which I did note as an important area) and ran all the way back up the top of the recent range.

View attachment 53009

Three hits into support with divergence.

Thats a futs Bread and butter trade. Size up and hang on.

 

[CanOz]

Suspect this is heading to 7950 ish, which is a "naked" Point of Control. Means that value there has not been re-tested...more likely to be re-visited if ifs very prominent.

This would be a nice 100 point move if it does it.

CanOz

 

[tech/a]

Back from Run just in time and closed out
happy with that.
Shower and out to Dinner.



I'm done for the night.

 

[pavilion103]

Good work.

6 point loss total for me over 2 trades. Heading out now.

 

[pavilion103]

Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home

 

[mr. jeff]

Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home

I bought the break of 6120
looking for 6180 possibly 6205
moving well
hope the food was worth it eating in does have an upside and friends hate it when you are checking your phone every 15 minutes...!

 

[skyQuake]

Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home

Lol, I check it up, saw the triangle poised to break. Then realized i was looking at 15min delayed data