The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Thanks for all your posts on the FTSE pav. In fact I think I'l trade it instead of the ESTX50. Although I do like the ESTX50, the FTSE is a higher index. Sori I missed out on your longer term position. Where did you enter at and in what direction?

I think 6480 short. Somewhere around there. I was about 80 points in profit at the peak before giving it back.

All good. Next time.

 

[tech/a]

Short at the moment.
Here is my reasoning.



DAX is similar but not trading it.

 

[Caveroute]

Same short entry, fading the b/o, 6519.

Target MM down to 6487.

Probability not very high - but hey it's xmas.

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting action.

I have a couple of questions for people.

1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?

2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?


I was on early this morning and considered getting long after the shakeout. But then I thought, "Don't touch it you idiot. You have no idea what you are doing", so I wisely left it alone (even thought it would have been a nice 50 points or so).

Reminder that December contract for FTSE expires tomorrow.

 

[kid hustlr]

Interesting action.

I have a couple of questions for people.

1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?

2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?


I was on early this morning and considered getting long after the shakeout. But then I thought, "Don't touch it you idiot. You have no idea what you are doing", so I wisely left it alone (even thought it would have been a nice 50 points or so).

Reminder that December contract for FTSE expires tomorrow.

I think it's a good call not trading it. Especially with something like that where there's the fomc release THEN the Q+A. It can rip around on a dime and whilst in hindsight its a shakeout it could have easily come back on itself. Not saying its not tradeable, just saying for someone of your level (and that's not a jab) I think its best to sit back.

In terms of medium term now, I think that looks like a low to me. I'd be leaning towards coming from the long side for the next period, obviously this view/opinion can change pretty quick.

Interestingly the last 2 rollover times have marked an intermediate top (Sep) and bottom (June) so perhaps this rollover marks an intermediate bottom??

 

[Trembling Hand]

Interesting action. .

Always is.

1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?

2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?

Well its intellectually warm and fuzzy to be a Bear but,

There should be a "re-think" by many from here on (and I'm not talking the doesn't matter retail crowd) now that the communication has plainly stated what they have actually always been saying. Stimulus stays until unemployment gets to 6.5 then we will look at it more closely.

I would expect some push and pull then it settles down in the New Year to whatever its gonna do. Up to Xmass its very much in favour of the colour green. Thats the reason why the fed played it the way they did.


Having said that a massive gap fill in Asia or Euro land is not completely out of the question from today. Just not my preferred thinking from here.

 

[tech/a]

Warm and fuzzy is good.
So is sleeping with one eye open!

 

[CanOz]

Having said that a massive gap fill in Asia or Euro land is not completely out of the question from today.

Especially after sweeping out the shorts....

 

[pavilion103]

Interested to see how this trades tonight. I hope there is some volatility.

 

[cbc]

1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?

I'd say its goin to keep going down. Then again I always tend to trade in the direction its going. It is the longest down trend on the 1yr chart (lasting roughly 1 1/2 months so far). Whether that means a reversal is likely . The 1yr chart has been all over the shop. 2 hard to say IMO.

 

[pavilion103]

Action has been non-existent.

I left the screen early and spent the night in a pool. Wise move.

 

[CanOz]

Action has been non-existent.

I left the screen early and spent the night in a pool. Wise move.

The markets are getting thin...everyone is commenting about it...fair enough, Christmas is just around the corner.:chimney

 

[pavilion103]

It's been a good 6 months trading the FTSE.
I've learnt a lot.

It is time to step things up a bit now in terms of analysis and focus.

This is the type of template I am looking to use to record all good trades every night that I am trading the FTSE. This will allow for much easier analysis as I continue to build my playbook of trades.

I understand that if I am going to achieve financial freedom through trading futures it is going to take a lot of work and a lot of analysis. I need to get really serious about this now.

 

[pavilion103]

Note: the notes in the analysis won't make perfect sense because some parts are hidden and other parts don't even apply to this analysis. It's just a template.

The reason I am keen to post these up frequently (hopefully) is to get some feedback on trades and thoughts that I can incorporate in each particular analysis to improve my analysis of the individual trade.

 

[tech/a]

Good to reflect on.
Don't over think trades.
Bullet point key points.

Been trading the last 2 sessions
Pretty average--- 56 quid!

 

[pavilion103]

Good to reflect on. Don't over think trades. Bullet point key points. Been trading the last 2 sessions Pretty average--- 56 quid!

Tonight was ok if you took that entry that I posted. Could break lower now. But I haven't been too active in the last couple of weeks either.

How much easier does it make things if you get on one early in the day and trail it sensibly! I love hear sort of setups.

 

[peter2]

Pav: I like your template. The daily chart outlines what is happening and allows you to anticipate your trading opportunities for the day.
eg after the Fed taper decision, look go long every day until the prior high (which you've mentioned could be resistance). Now that we are at R, the opportunities increase meaning that as well as trend continuation plays, reversals are also a possibility.

I might be worth your time trying to categorise or name your plays so that you can group them and find out what you do well and which setups are your favourites.

I agree with Tech/a don't spend too much effort describing what happened, just note the setup (play) and whether you traded your plan well or made a mistake.

Overall I like your approach and think you should improve quickly now that your journal has a better structure.

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks for the feedback. I agree with all that you say. Always enjoy hearing your thoughts!

 

[pavilion103]

On the chart that I posted, what are people's thoughts on the second little trade I could have taken ?
It's after the blue circle. The little up channel on low volume provided a 3.5 risk trade that I identified at the time. Considered it being in 12 points profit already with stop at BE.

Do people think that would have been a good way to add to the position?
Given that we were early in the day too with the trend unfolding? I contemplated it. Entered it in. But cancelled.

Exit 6680.

With the second position....
1st position = 33 points (6.5 risk)
2nd position= 21 points (3.5 risk)

Total = 54 points = $1,000 profit.
Minimal risk to achieve this.

I like the idea of taking a second position when in profit. Particularly with very small risk and on a 'pullback' in a trend which is already underway.

Thoughts? Anyone share my sentiments?

 

[tech/a]

PAV
Typical trigger pull phobia.
All setups are correct until proven incorrect
Just as they are incorrect until proven correct.

The only way you'll get good at this is take the trades.
Take the losses.
Tough out the setups---don't second guess.
Maximize your wins---I find profit targets best for me.

You actually have to do it!---with your hard earned at risk.
It can gobble a days pay in 10 mins
Make a weeks pay in a session.

I do understand your trepidation

Have a great 2014 everyone.