The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

Well it does make you wonder if there is less volume up in these lofty heights, how is the trend going to continue...

Shorts anyone?

Personally feel that the market is well aware that the US "printed money" rescue packages cant go on forever and that some economies are following suit. So the highs are un sustainable.
As indexes go I doubt that constituents in those indexes are being bought as long term holds.
Most seem to be speculating--even across weeks. So Indexes are reflecting that.

This lack of direction will persist.
A difficult time for any trading in the market.

Shorts yes but with frustration.
This shorter term mentality will stick around.
I cant see it altering any time soon.
The only thing leading the market is
Certain----Un certainty!

 

[CanOz]

Personally feel that the market is well aware that the US "printed money" rescue packages cant go on forever and that some economies are following suit. So the highs are un sustainable.
As indexes go I doubt that constituents in those indexes are being bought as long term holds.
Most seem to be speculating--even across weeks. So Indexes are reflecting that.

This lack of direction will persist.
A difficult time for any trading in the market.

Shorts yes but with frustration.
This shorter term mentality will stick around.
I cant see it altering any time soon.
The only thing leading the market is
Certain----Un certainty!

The markets i look at, in terms of the futures contracts are really poor in terms of structure at the moment. So that means a quick fall to support is possible.

In strong trends the value areas (area of the highest volume) are stacked upon each other as value is consistently accepted higher. In this last thrust higher its mostly made up of spikes where price was just vaulted higher into an accented area temporarily until the next big spike. So while the price looks very bullish, in fact there has not been allot of volume in this move (generally speaking) and there are only a few levels for which the market to pause on a retracement. So that's why i expect that any rotation back, whenever it happens will be quite swift.

I realize you understand some market profile so I'll post the difference on a US market for discussion purposes.

I think you might find it interesting.

 

[kid hustlr]

Speaking about the FTSE specifically, the action has been decently bullish the last week or so with every attempt to push it down being bought up with force.

recognising this, we are now at a significant level in the December contract and you would expect some resistance. The volume last night was relatively dismal and I'd be very surprised if it cracked new highs with volumes at this level (as you said canoz).

Definitely taking a short bias with me tonight but as always ill just look for my trade set ups!

 

[CanOz]

I just selected the ES contract as its the big daddy in terms of volume.

You can see in the last leg higher on the first image that the value areas are quite overlapping, its like bracket then trend, with a couple of breakaway gaps. The decline that followed had to navigate back through all those agreed value areas. You can see the value areas were stacked and overlapped.

This last leg higher has seen many longer value areas, thin areas on the profiles where little volume was done, and the last thrust higher has not been as overlapping. Now we are in a bracket.

Now usually as a trend ages the value areas overlap each other more and more. So I'm not saying that this trend is aging, but what i am pointing out at the moment is:

1.) we have started to bracket again at the highs (good opportunity)
2.) if we see a rotation back through the recent value areas it could be a swift rotation to the last solid value area around 1700

A couple of things need to happen before i start getting too bearish though.

a. We need to see an "excess high", an area where higher prices are rejected. Currently we have poor highs in place, looking like this auction is not finished yet. For an excess high we need to see sellers initiate new positions on the highs in size and volume. Longer time frame participants. This has not happened yet so i still expect the highs to be retested until that happens.

b. We need a significant period of bracketing at the highs before a significant rotation lower can happen IMO

Anyway, I've been watching with keen interest as the volume has dried up on several European indices, as Kid mentions as well. We are at the top of a large channel on the ES daily as well.

I'd like to see how this current bracket plays out, should be some opportunities here for now, but be alert for a quick test lower before we auction allot higher,

 

[captain black]

Not sure if anyone else here trades the Kospi futures but in case there is, streaming data for the K200 is currently down for those trading with IB. I've reported the issue and they're working on it.

- - - Updated - - -

Back up again, I better get to work

 

[kid hustlr]

Good write up Can.

NFP tonight which could prove to be a catalyst one way or the other. With all these indices at the top of the range and everyone looking to sell it, maybe we get some kind of big false break when the mkt jumps up on the data then they turn it around and push it back all the way through and then some?

Completely agree with can/oz + tech that its only really realistic to talk in shorter time frames ( a few days, weeks at max) at the moment as the mkt just seems so skiddish.

can't wait for tonight!

 

[CanOz]

Not sure if anyone else here trades the Kospi futures but in case there is, streaming data for the K200 is currently down for those trading with IB. I've reported the issue and they're working on it.

- - - Updated - - -

Back up again, I better get to work

Still working with a couple of brokers on this Captain, like to get the K200 and the HSI with a decent data feed on one broker, with all the rest of the markets.

Slow going...

- - - Updated - - -

NFP tonight which could prove to be a catalyst one way or the other. With all these indices at the top of the range and everyone looking to sell it, maybe we get some kind of big false break when the mkt jumps up on the data then they turn it around and push it back all the way through and then some?

Yeah agree, likely a bracket until the data....i guess this is a good thing too, the market is back to waiting for econo data instead of fiscal political resolutions.

 

[CanOz]

So for the NFP data, 180,000 is the consensus. So anything less than this is bullish and likely to delay the taper?

Anything above this is bearish because the Fed will taper sooner rather than later....

Is this the way everyone is looking to read the reaction to the number now

 

[kid hustlr]

So for the NFP data, 180,000 is the consensus. So anything less than this is bullish and likely to delay the taper?

Anything above this is bearish because the Fed will taper sooner rather than later....

Is this the way everyone is looking to read the reaction to the number now

In a nutshell yes.

Wouldn't surprise mf if they just buy the S&P regardless of the data. The thing only seems to move one way

 

[CanOz]

In a nutshell yes.

Wouldn't surprise mf if they just buy the S&P regardless of the data. The thing only seems to move one way

Well that's information too, they say strong market ignore all fundamentals....Weak markets react to it.

NFP day, always a great day none the less!

 

[captain black]

Still working with a couple of brokers on this Captain, like to get the K200 and the HSI with a decent data feed on one broker, with all the rest of the markets.

Slow going...

Yeh, it's probably the weak link in my trading at the moment, I'm pretty much reliant on IB to trade the Kospi and it's my bread and butter each week. I've had a look at a couple of Singapore based brokers and NH Futures in South Korea but looking is as far as I've gotten.

Gee, haven't markets been quiet lately. The Kospi has been range bound for the last few days. Today has been better but I've still only fired off 8 trades and only had 10-12 the last couple of days where I normally have 25-30. I'm not into making predictions but something's gotta give soon...

 

[CanOz]

Yeh, it's probably the weak link in my trading at the moment, I'm pretty much reliant on IB to trade the Kospi and it's my bread and butter each week. I've had a look at a couple of Singapore based brokers and NH Futures in South Korea but looking is as far as I've gotten.

Gee, haven't markets been quiet lately. The Kospi has been range bound for the last few days. Today has been better but I've still only fired off 8 trades and only had 10-12 the last couple of days where I normally have 25-30. I'm not into making predictions but something's gotta give soon...

I'll certainly let everyone know when we make a breakthrough with brokers Captain.

Yeah, all the markets are quiet too. I guess when you reflect on what has happened so far this year its been pretty dramatic. Now we are back in a bracket at the top and waiting for more info...perhaps.

I guess one of the keys things is to be able to recognize this and scale back the trading, which is what I've done this time, while learning some US markets.

One thing about trading order flow is you can learn to sense the volume and fluidity quite easily. Before, without the volume as a guide i was left wondering what the heck is going on...

 

[CanOz]

We'll i don't think i'll be fading any highs today but i may look to buy into the low side of the recent bracket on the Dax if there's enough other interest there...other than that i think i'll sit on my hands today.....again

 

[CanOz]

Almost time folks, another two hours until NFP!

opcorn:corn:

 

[CanOz]

Anyone want to guess which US Index is NOT at all time highs?

 

[CanOz]

Thats the biggest miss for NFP for a while i think... 148k vs 180k consensus. Lets see how the market digests over the next hour...

All i have to go on lately is mostly overnight high/low for references.

 

[kid hustlr]

so apparently

this guy

now trades aussie bonds. price action the last few weeks has just been incredibly weird so I actually do believe it

 

[CanOz]

so apparently

this guy

now trades aussie bonds. price action the last few weeks has just been incredibly weird so I actually do believe it

Maybe that was him i saw in the Ferrari in Singapore

He has a fund now.

Give him a call...

 

[kid hustlr]

somethings going on here, murdered the aud, Nikkei getting creamed, bonds hugely bid.

they might come in and crush the S&P tonight.

 

[havaiana]

somethings going on here, murdered the aud, Nikkei getting creamed, bonds hugely bid.

they might come in and crush the S&P tonight.

maybe this?? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-22/biggest-china-banks-triple-debt-write-offs-to-brace-for-defaults.html

"China’s biggest banks tripled the amount of bad loans written off in the first half, cleaning up their books ahead of what may be a fresh wave of defaults."