The transition to Futures trading

[kid hustlr]

Duckman, interested to get your thoughts on the FTSE when you have a chance. How I see it below:

 

[kid hustlr]

What a difference a day makes. High volume push to the upside leaves us at the top of the trendline. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight

 

[havaiana]

What a difference a day makes. High volume push to the upside leaves us at the top of the trendline. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight

I would be hoping for a bit more of a retrace to get in before going for the highs further up.

But my guess of what could happen today is not much, then gap up on Monday. I have developed a new strategy where I try to work out the most annoying thing that can happen and then trade for it. The problem is something more annoying usually happens that I didn't account for.

 

[barney]

Not trading the FTSE at the moment, but my take on it for what its worth .....


Looking for the open to take out last weeks high and bring in some late to the party buyers on a false breakout. Expect a quick squeeze on the late buyers, followed by a strong rally. If we get the strong rally, I'd be looking at a fade into the close around the Monthly 50% level .....

 

[CanOz]

Nice call Barney, hope you wagered on that one and it paid for you!

So today we have a few key references that i'll be watching...

6458 for possible rejection, 6450 to test support

Maybe a bracket with value building between 6500 and 6450...

Would like to see some bracketing to provide a few solid reference before a move in either direction, which is likely after two trend days.

So will look for a retracement back to last sessions POC at 6451.5 and see if we can find responsive buyers. If that fails then we'll look at 6436.

We'll look near the PHOD for buyers/sellers if we head higher but i anticipate a gap down on the open.

Could be slow Monday...

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah v nice barney.

Think buyers are in control at the moment, any low volume test on a longer time frame is probably a buying opportunity. Agreed it could be a very quiet Monday so am expecting some form of bracket day.

 

[kid hustlr]

Seen this a couple times over the past few weeks. When the big boys get on the right side of the trade they just put these massive orders on the ladder to hold it in. When they swept it up they just lock it in. Not sure how effective it is but its pretty daunting for anyone looking to open a short.

(not saying they actually want them fwiw)

 

[CanOz]

Spoofing....?

 

[barney]

Yeah thanks Can and Kid ..... My "blueprint" was close the mark in the end .... I traded it on sim for the point of the exercise, but my heart is still in taming the Forex beast!!

Just for the record, my Sim trades based on my analysis ...........

FTSE2 Took an initial long, then a second after an inviting retrace near the weekly highs ... Put 2 covering sells in at around last weeks weekly highs as anticipated ....

FTSE2a Two covering sells filled ..... Put stop losses on the two buys in case of a Fade into the close as anticipated ....

FTSE2b Took a punt and closed the buys before the close very late Friday night as the run looked way overdone going into a Friday close (would not have done that on my real account which is actually a sign that I am improving as a trader!! ..... trade is well in profit as I type (correct assumption, but ballz required in real time and potential downside needs to be taken into consideration !!) ..........

Market should go higher from here so the trade is now effectively over.

 

[kid hustlr]

gonna be really annoyed if this is another one of those steady grind in one direction days. i find them really hard to trade

 

[CanOz]

gonna be really annoyed if this is another one of those steady grind in one direction days. i find them really hard to trade

The DAX is super thin, i got some slippage. ticked the high there too...

Asia was pretty miserable this morning, so maybe the same in Europe....are we really going to new highs without this US mess sorted out? hmmm....

 

[CanOz]

I'm at a loss for brokerage only today so i think i'll call it quits until we get to an area where some big boys might come out and play...

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah good plan Can. FTSE is in a little bit of no mans land, i thought after three big up days there might be some sellers but at this stage the volume is still pretty dire and there doesn't appear to be much interest.

 

[CanOz]

haha, that was a smackdown. run the stops and kill 'em all...

Glad i didn't fall for that one...this time lol...

Think i'll do some study...

 

[kid hustlr]

haha, that was a smackdown. run the stops and kill 'em all...

Glad i didn't fall for that one...this time lol...

Think i'll do some study...

On what contract?

I got a ripper fill @ 6515.5 then on the FTSE then, exited for a small 5 tick win not long after, perhaps slightly premature? not sure.

Didn't appear to have the volume to be pushing down and it was a nice reversal bar on the 1m. This thing just doesn't look like it wants to go anywhere right now

Might be me done for now

EDIT:

Quick note to self that I perhaps did exit a little prematurely, could see the sellers coming in the depth but after that quick push higher its not suprising, perhaps should have looked for an exit a little higher towards the top of the range, given my feeling that it was just bounce in between the range for the time being

 

[pavilion103]

First trade for a while.

In 6528. Stop BE

Currently 6534

 

[CanOz]

On what contract?

On the DAX...interesting rally this one...must be shorts covering, volume on some of the pushes seems so light...could end up with a poor high here.

I didn't trade this, really hard to get a feel for it. Glad i didn't try and fade it though.

Lets see what happens when the big markets open...

 

[kid hustlr]

I was kind of expecting some volatility in this session given currencies + gov debt markets jumped around a little today. Quietish start at this stage although ftse/dax testing highs now

 

[kid hustlr]

jeez just a really heavy grind higher at the moment. bit of size/volume to this to, no real lapses in volume or thin breaks up, just a juggernaut buy buy buying

 

[CanOz]

Not sure what to make of today, the FTSE is ahead of the DAX (broke out of its bracket)...The DAX is in a bracket...No news today...

Sit on hands and wait for the trade i just cannot pass up i guess...whatever the heck that looks like.