The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

I'm out of action boys. All my money is tied up in my equity trades now.

I'm only a humble peasant.

Will keep my eye on this a little but won't trade sim or anything like that.

As Arnie said "I'll be back"

 

[kid hustlr]

So much more scalability in futures!!

 

[pavilion103]

I think I need about 7,000 spare to take a contract. I can't remember.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I think I need about 7,000 spare to take a contract. I can't remember.

 

[pavilion103]

<img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=53421"/>

Thanks TH!

 

[boofis]

I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.

This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?

Have definitely found moving stop to B/E will just get one stopped out on every trade unless you have the absolute best entry possible! *See above attachment for a prime example from what TH posted in the HSI K200 thread. Over a 40 tick range of entries possible all would've been stopped out had the stop been moved to break even on the first push.
Also, for what it's worth given my noob status, I've been toying with if A then B type scenarios just to give me something basic to work with regarding the stop, so if the trade has gone my way change stop to b/e after X time (15 mins on HSI) as it will generally have made a new short term high/low after that time so much slimmer chance of needless stop out.

 

[tech/a]

Have definitely found moving stop to B/E will just get one stopped out on every trade unless you have the absolute best entry possible! *See above attachment for a prime example from what TH posted in the HSI K200 thread. Over a 40 tick range of entries possible all would've been stopped out had the stop been moved to break even on the first push.
Also, for what it's worth given my noob status, I've been toying with if A then B type scenarios just to give me something basic to work with regarding the stop, so if the trade has gone my way change stop to b/e after X time (15 mins on HSI) as it will generally have made a new short term high/low after that time so much slimmer chance of needless stop out.

So you'd have been stopped for no loss twice and had a great winning trade on the third attempt.

The problem is?

Its not about being right it's about being profitable.----

 

[Trembling Hand]

So you'd have been stopped for no loss twice and had a great winning trade on the third attempt.

The problem is?

Its not about being right it's about being profitable.----

Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.

Then what?

EDIT:
Here is the perfect example playing out now on the FTSE - a run 50 points higher. Set a buy order a few ticks above last high. Then move your stop to BE once it moves your way. Every trade taken out on the next few bars!

 

[tech/a]

Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.

Then what?

EDIT:
Here is the perfect example playing out now a a FTSE run 50 points higher. Great up move. Set a buy order a few ticks above last high. Then move your stop to BE once it moves your way. Every trade taken out on the next few bars!

View attachment 53422

The trade above HSI is not a good trade.
The testin of the high coupled with volume indications
And range and close of bars shows that a long trade
Just isn't the right trade.
I thought he was talking about a short trade----

He's just on the wrong side of the trade.
Poor analysis.

FTSE has been doing the exact same move for the last 5 sessions.
Open up then short!

 

[Trembling Hand]

The trade above HSI is not a good trade.
The testin of the high coupled with volume indications
And range and close of bars shows that a long trade
Just isn't the right trade.
I thought he was talking about a short trade----

He's just on the wrong side of the trade.
Poor analysis.

Ha! They were my trades and they were short.

 

[Twiddle]

Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.

Then what?

This is what I have found, trading the DAX. I only trade the opening and look to capture the first real move in a direction. Moving stop to BE may prevent losses, but it more importantly prevents a lot of times when you would have captured the move, due to it coming back quickly before heading more on its way.

If you are trading with a 3:1 RR, but a win percentage of under 50%, losing even 1 trade to a BE stop, that otherwise would have gone on, will cause more havoc than having a trade be wrong and stopped out for a loss.

 

[kid hustlr]

Tech,

Mind if I pick your brain one more time before you can enjoy the weekend??

See example below. I'm only really concentrating on the last 4 bars (as marked), just wondering if I'm understanding the context as I should be. Notes on chart.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'm only really concentrating on the last 4 bars (as marked),

Actually scratch that last comment. I don't know what I'm talking about.......

 

[kid hustlr]

WHY? You are in the middle of a congestion zone.

Apologies mate I'm lost, do you mean congestion zone as in yesterday we were trading higher or congestion zone as in we are effectively in the middle of the range of the last 4 bars?

 

[kid hustlr]

Actually scratch that last comment. I don't know what I'm talking about.......

Yep all good.

 

[kid hustlr]

Long FTSE 6590.5

Don't love it but lets see.

Stop 6577

 

[kid hustlr]

Stopped. Lol that was fast.

Mental note to myself that:

taking a trade on the first bar of the day is living and dying by the sword.

Secondly, I think I'm better off letting it play out over a longer time frame. For example, look to see if the 9 min chart prints a reversal bar or a bar I like then try to get better entry using a 3 min chart.

Going gung ho off the first 3 min chart off the day might be a little aggressive.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Going gung ho off the first 3 min chart off the day might be a little aggressive.

Especially buying the cash high open only a few min after the start.... couldn't imagine what your setup was there?

 

[kid hustlr]

Especially buying the cash high open only a few min after the start.... couldn't imagine what your setup was there?

 

[Trembling Hand]

LOL I think I should leave this thread alone.....