The transition to Futures trading

[boofis]

I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?

Me too.

 

[pavilion103]

2 really good trades identified last night (one in real time, the other after the fact in the morning)

Both testing if resistance. Both with an obvious no supply bar. Both giving 25-30 points profit.

I won't always put it to break-even immediately if it doesn't make sense. For me, I like identifying really tight setups too of 5-8 points. Sometimes based on other resistance levels I might move it within 2 or 3 points really quickly. Most times breakeven though.

If I have a some BE and 2 point losses they are easily offset by the 20,30 or 40 point gains.

I don't like stuffing around with it too much. I'd rather identify a potential target, watch price and volume at that level and adjust stops/exit the position based on a change of behavior.

 

[pavilion103]

I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?

Happy to discuss in a relevant thread or private message to anyone interested but I won't derail this particular thread. This is not the place guys.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Would be short from 6541... except I tried entering via a different method to normal and IB popped up asking me if I wanted to do a "virtual FX position" or a "real FX balance".

So by the time I worked out what that means it was too late. Now look at it run. Some people are born to lose.

UPDATE:
Seriously? Look at the size of the down bar. Good thing I'm still on sim or this would be really painful to watch.

 

[pavilion103]

Big down bar! I'm off for the rest of the week though. Good luck fellas

 

[pavilion103]

As an observation the sept contract seems to be at a critical level. Upthrust. Low volume move with tight bars in a tight range. I wonder if it will break to the downside with a wide bar this evening or in the following days. Could be a great opportunity?

 

[cynic]

READ THE BOOK!

Personally I'd rather watch the movie!

Although at times it can turn out to be a real heartstarter of a horror flick!

There's nothing quite so unsettling as watching the screen, only to see Count DAX of TradersMania, unexpectedly spring back to life and tear Profitable Van Gosling's shorts off with a single ferocious bite!

 

[kid hustlr]

Tech, just in case you aren't busy enough with the other thread, if you get a chance I'd love to hear your thoughts on the set up from this morning. notes and question in the chart.

both 60 minute and 15 minute charts attached.



P.S what beer does a duck drink?

 

[barney]

P.S what beer does a duck drink?

That's a no bwainer ....... :

 

[Trembling Hand]

Tech, just in case you aren't busy enough with the other thread, if you get a chance I'd love to hear your thoughts on the set up from this morning. notes and question in the chart.

Why wait till its ran so far for an entry? thats really poor trading in my book. If you have an idea trade it. you have the opportunity to have a stop of only a few ticks and if it moves up to the break point you will have the stop at BE while everyone else is trying to get in or cover shorts. If you wait till it breaks you will have a huge stop and will of left half the move to someone else waiting for some comfort in the so called confirmation. Where what you get with waiting is now a crappy trade.



All just IMO.

 

[tech/a]

Why wait till its ran so far for an entry? thats really poor trading in my book. If you have an idea trade it. you have the opportunity to have a stop of only a few ticks and if it moves up to the break point you will have the stop at BE while everyone else is trying to get in or cover shorts. If you wait till it breaks you will have a huge stop and will of left half the move to someone else waiting for some comfort in the so called confirmation. Where what you get with waiting is now a crappy trade.

View attachment 53417

All just IMO.

Thanks saved me sometime.
Agree.

This Duck doesnt drink.
Daisy however likes a wine.

 

[kid hustlr]

ta boys

As a summary, I took the trade at the top, it went my way quickly and I was quick to move to b/e, next bar it reversed and I was stopped @ b/e.

I feel like I've missed an opportunity today.

Still learning.

 

[tech/a]

ta boys

As a summary, I took the trade at the top, it went my way quickly and I was quick to move to b/e, next bar it reversed and I was stopped @ b/e.

I feel like I've missed an opportunity today.

Still learning.

Be carefull of obvious tops and bottoms and even pivots.
Very very often breakout traders will be trapped as traders scramble to close out positions with obvious stops at these levels.

I like to see tests to take positions with minimum risk from covering.
Every high will get tested as will every low. Long and short term so youll get plenty of opportunities.
Tight stops --to B/E as quick as you can ---enjoy!

 

[kid hustlr]

Be carefull of obvious tops and bottoms and even pivots.
Very very often breakout traders will be trapped as traders scramble to close out positions with obvious stops at these levels.

I like to see tests to take positions with minimum risk from covering.
Every high will get tested as will every low. Long and short term so youll get plenty of opportunities.
Tight stops --to B/E as quick as you can ---enjoy!

Isn't part of the benefits of a break out trade the fact that we are going against the stops? For example in this case we identify there may be some stops above that level (96.320) so as shorts are forced to stop out we are buying into them, ie trading with momentum?

Wise words about 'looking for tests' though, it definitely provides much better R:R and I feel its the smart trade, ie one step ahead of the game instead of being the standard 'retail trade'.

I guess this once again comes back to the small inside bar you always talk about, it gives such better R:R.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Isn't part of the benefits of a break out trade the fact that we are going against the stops? For example in this case we identify there may be some stops above that level (96.320) so as shorts are forced to stop out we are buying into them, ie trading with momentum?

Wise words about 'looking for tests' though, it definitely provides much better R:R and I feel its the smart trade, ie one step ahead of the game instead of being the standard 'retail trade'.

I guess this once again comes back to the small inside bar you always talk about, it gives such better R:R.

I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.

This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?

 

[kid hustlr]

I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.

This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?

Yeah I mean you are reading my mind on a lot of this stuff. Like I was thinking yesterday in the market(s) I trade I might get what I perceive to be a good breakout trade opportunity once a week, perhaps twice. It definitely can't be the staple of how I make money.

Also completely agree that futs are mean reverting. bond markets probably more so. Whilst I'm ok with getting stopped out of a few trades because I move to B/E I once again feel as if you read my mind and I need to let them ride slightly more.

I mean when I take a step back and look at the chart today as well as what I viewed in the DOM it was like 'ok there's a clear buyer here and he pushes us up off the open we then break slightly higher above the resistance and some stops were definitely triggered, it was quite sharp at one stage. Then just like that it reverses and its as if someone with size has said 'gotcha' on what was an obvious break out point and he comes back and drives it back the other way.

There is still upside pressure and we have since pushed back up again but at the end of the day I just need to be smarter. Either enter the trade earlier in the hope we break up, or wait for a 'test' and observe price action to see if we are going to bust up again. Both give much better R:R.

EDIT:

As an aside, I feel as a general rule the more times an area is tested and the higher the volume, the more chance of a strong, sustained break out

 

[Trembling Hand]

we then break slightly higher above the resistance and some stops were definitely triggered, it was quite sharp at one stage. Then just like that it reverses and its as if someone with size has said 'gotcha' on what was an obvious break out point and he comes back and drives it back the other way.

the 'gotcha' trade is my bread and butter.... in fact it also adds some jam to my meal....

Extremely low stop size, all the volume you can ask for and its over in an instant.

 

[kid hustlr]

the 'gotcha' trade is my bread and butter.... in fact it also adds some jam to my meal....

Extremely low stop size, all the volume you can ask for and its over in an instant.

Always wondered who was on the other side of those trades.

Once again I feel this was a good spot for a 'gotcha' trade because whilst this level has been tested once or twice, it wasn't really on big volume. Like it got rejected once pretty quickly a few days back then they tested it on no volume overnight. Not really a HUGE breakout opportunity if that makes any sense.

I'd imagine if you felt there was some serious size floating around then you would be less inclined to go for the 'gotcha' ?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'd imagine if you felt there was some serious size floating around then you would be less inclined to go for the 'gotcha' ?

Incorrect. The more the merrier.



EDIT: Its lack of volume on both ends is where the danger of it just running away.