The transition to Futures trading

[Wysiwyg]

There is a fine line between wiggle room and losing trades.

 

[tech/a]

There is a fine line between wiggle room and losing trades.

Yes it's called patience to get your timing right.

Chart of explanation later.

 

[pavilion103]

It's a fine line between making 50 points and coming away with minus 5!
Being at the screen helps....

Below are KEY insights. This stuff is so crucial for the FTSE. Take note of this post.

 

[pavilion103]

The daily chart of my progress compared to where I am supposed to be at this stage is starting to look a little sick.

I want to post this honest update so that people cannot look at this thread and think that it lacks any sort of authenticity.

It is not easy fronting up to the forum with a chart like this, but the positive is that I am still slightly ahead.

This pattern has happened to me 3 or 4 times and I really must learn from it this time.
In trending markets I will have $3,000-$6,000 weeks at times and then in non-trending markets, rather than wisely picking up 20 point wins and being more selective of entries, I tend to let my open profits fall back to zero and then rack up a few 10-15 point losses which leaves me in the negative for the week.

There were a couple of 30 point losses in there, but apart from that it was a steady bleeding of points and lack of willingness to take profit on trades which were 20-25 points up. Even taking 1 or 2 of those each week would have ensured no losses and in fact, profit.



WORST case scenario. Draw-down should have been HALF of what is was. At WORST. It is completely unnecessary and unacceptable to give back that much. There is no need at all. If trading by my rules, in reality, I should never really lose more than 20 points net in a week, given that I am always up 20-30 points on 2-3 days per week even in non-trending markets.

 

[tech/a]

PAV

I notice no mention of Volume.
A couple of charts with some Ideas.
I think your a little 1 dimensional.

There are also patterns and hints to indicate that
support OR resistance will be broken.
When consolidation zones become areas of accumulation
or distribution ready for an explosive breakout.

In relation to Wysis' comment the best place for wiggle is AFTER
huge volume above or below it.---

As price comes into Support OR Resistance
this is one very good way of picking Tops or Bottoms.

 

[pavilion103]

I agree.

I have seemed to lose sight of exiting into strong volume at good levels. This is vitally important.

I can't just sit back and think price will consolidate and then break higher. This is projecting my desires rather than trading reality.


In these markets the right play is to always exit in these places.
When it's trending I can let it run more in the right places.
But even still to ignore volume at these levels is foolish.

Great considerations.
So basic.
Just need to keep it front of mind.
Funnily enough in my notes it says to exit at critical levels and/or high volume.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

PAV

I notice no mention of Volume.
A couple of charts with some Ideas.
I think your a little 1 dimensional.

There are also patterns and hints to indicate that
support OR resistance will be broken.
When consolidation zones become areas of accumulation
or distribution ready for an explosive breakout.

In relation to Wysis' comment the best place for wiggle is AFTER
huge volume above or below it.---

As price comes into Support OR Resistance
this is one very good way of picking Tops or Bottoms.


View attachment 61564

View attachment 61565

That third long is interesting no? After the first two, that third one would LOOK like it was stuff all volume in comparison to the others when watching it live as it's happening. Isn't there always going to be volume going into an area of support/resistance, if it's bounced or turned there before(hence why it is even supp/res in the first place) surely there will always be volume whether it breaks through or not, as there will always be a bit of resistance to pushing through, simply because it will be a place where people like us are looking for positions because it has been supp/res previously? It's just whether THIS time it's strong enough and has enough force behind it to push through.

Not quite sure I understand your concept of volume INTO an area shows signs that it's going to hold. I think it can favour either, breaking through or holding, depends what the supposed "smart money" wants.

 

[tech/a]

Sam
It's A very important reversal
Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
Characterized by increasing volume into it.

There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
Direction out of a consolidation.

I'm happy to give some information out
I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
To email PAV.

See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.

If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
----according to the masses------indeed why would I .

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Sam
It's A very important reversal
Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
Characterized by increasing volume into it.

There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
Direction out of a consolidation.

I'm happy to give some information out
I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
To email PAV.

See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.

If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
----according to the masses------indeed why would I .

I did send you an email the other day but might've been an old email you don't use about this topic, but I'm sure that the high majority of us here appreciate your posts and info/guidance. Don't be put off by those who assume things or nay-sayers, just think of them as losing trades Your like to dislike ratio is still very good

 

[nulla nulla]

Sam
It's A very important reversal
Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
Characterized by increasing volume into it.

There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
Direction out of a consolidation.

I'm happy to give some information out
I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
To email PAV.

See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.

If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
----according to the masses------indeed why would I .

I can't work out why you let a few naysayers undermine your self confidence and disrupt your contribution. Seriously, if you stopped to self evaluate your current position in your life, the yapping of a few ill informed young pups would simply be background noise you should ignore. Stop letting it get to you and focus on the positive. There a some young pups here, lurkers, that benefit from your contribution even if they are quiet about it. There are also a few older dogs that listen in case there are some new tricks or angles worth considering. Toughen up and get on with it.

 

[fiftyeight]

Chuck me on that email list. I was just thinking about support, resistance and exits the other day.


I am pretty sure I have previously said in this thread when I was playing around on the FTSE my biggest problem was my exits, often holding way to long.

Any thoughts are always greatly appreciated

 

[pavilion103]

I'm starting to realize that in most market conditions profit will come from 2-3 x 20-35 point move rather than 1 x 40-50.

There is a time for letting it run (trending conditions), but no reason why on average I can't have 2-3 nights per week of 2-3 contracts x 20-25 point moves.

I feel that this mindset will lead to much more consistent profit. Then in strong trending markets I let it run.

 

[Mdean]

Pav:
I wanted to thank you for starting this thread and posting your amazing journey over the last 2 years. I've just finished reading the entire thread which has taken me a number of weeks. I feel it's been a fantastic read with some extremely valuable contributions from a number of regular posters (Tech, T/H, Canoz, Kid, Lone). Some humour along the way as well which had me thinking the thread was going to derail but you were able to keep it on topic and stuck by your plan.

It's inspirational for someone like myself who has been on my own trading journey over the last few years. Due to fear and a lack of commitment I have found many times along the way I have lead myself astray only to crawl my way back, something about the markets hey? I've read into a lot of material available but found this thread has been just what I needed to read to get my head back on track. The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life. I might be going over the top with this but felt given you have put hours of your own time over the last few years into helping people like me I felt you deserved some thanks, even if from just an average joe.

On another note, I think given your track record and determination it won't be long till you turn things around for the last few down weeks. I'll be continuing to follow this thread as long as it stays active and look forward to when the time comes where I can contribute something of value.

Cheers,
Dean.

 

[PinguPingu]

Pav/Tech, how do you measure the risk of your entries? I understand that R:R must always try to be as good as possible. Do you just wait it out till a low risk, high reward strategy appears on the index? And how do you know, or at least know its a good probability the levels you enter hold to be a good setup.

When attempting to sim trade either forex or futures I just constantly get stopped out and bleed money, only for the move to reverse to what would have been a nice profit, except, I'm stopped out already. And if I get a good move I almost always cut it too short. (btw do you guys use breakeven stops in your future trades?)

 

[tech/a]

The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life

Dean

Your right--few people realize this!

Pav/Tech, how do you measure the risk of your entries? I understand that R:R must always try to be as good as possible. Do you just wait it out till a low risk, high reward strategy appears on the index? And how do you know, or at least know its a good probability the levels you enter hold to be a good setup.

When attempting to sim trade either forex or futures I just constantly get stopped out and bleed money, only for the move to reverse to what would have been a nice profit, except, I'm stopped out already. And if I get a good move I almost always cut it too short. (btw do you guys use breakeven stops in your future trades?)

A very important question.
What's happening to you is a universal phenomenon. I'm teaching Kris discretionary trading now and he is doing exactly as you are!

How do you get out of the cycle.

Its all about timing and not taking a trade on a hunch.
(1) Don't take a trade in NO MANS LAND. (Between Support or Resistance.)
(2) Learn how to analyse a consolidation
(3) Learn how to recognise a continuation micro pattern.
(4)Look at the charts above where you should take a trade be sure you are at an area where you'll know really quickly if your wrong.
(5) Understand volume in these patterns.
(6) Recognise individual reversal and continuation bars.
(7) Understand to get set you may need a couple of bites.
e.g. for me a 5 tick loss x 3 is fine for a 45 tick gain.
(8) Don't develop a bias!
(9) Exit when you can see a clear change of sentiment---in your timeframe. (Wont be just one bar).
(10) Learn how to combine time frames to stay on the right side of a trade.
(11) Smaller time frame S&R will only be minor.

Keep at it one day its like looking at a familiar face. That's when you know your there!

 

[BeanJumbler]

Thank you for posting your long and transformative journey! I found this journal through some links to it in other threads.

I went back to page 1 and started reading it. And I just wanted to ask before I continue on to read the entire 200 odd pages - on the first page, you state that your transitioning from stocks to futures - do you have another thread where you began your stock trading ideas, before getting into futures, that I should read before this one?

I ask because I'm a beginner with both stocks and futures, and don't really follow the technical analysis. If there is no other thread, do I need to have some technical analysis under my belt before attempting to understand / follow your progress?

 

[pavilion103]

Thank you for posting your long and transformative journey! I found this journal through some links to it in other threads.

I went back to page 1 and started reading it. And I just wanted to ask before I continue on to read the entire 200 odd pages - on the first page, you state that your transitioning from stocks to futures - do you have another thread where you began your stock trading ideas, before getting into futures, that I should read before this one?

I ask because I'm a beginner with both stocks and futures, and don't really follow the technical analysis. If there is no other thread, do I need to have some technical analysis under my belt before attempting to understand / follow your progress?

Hmm..
I don't think there was one. Probably just miscellaneous posts in various threads. I actually started a LARGE number of threads on this site when I started out; each related to different aspects.

I also started a Hypothetical Trading Thread which might be of interest. I can't remember how it started. And now my Live Trading thread could be of interest for you to follow as I progress. I will post more informative explainations and charts when time permits.

 

[pavilion103]

Pav:
I wanted to thank you for starting this thread and posting your amazing journey over the last 2 years. I've just finished reading the entire thread which has taken me a number of weeks. I feel it's been a fantastic read with some extremely valuable contributions from a number of regular posters (Tech, T/H, Canoz, Kid, Lone). Some humour along the way as well which had me thinking the thread was going to derail but you were able to keep it on topic and stuck by your plan.

It's inspirational for someone like myself who has been on my own trading journey over the last few years. Due to fear and a lack of commitment I have found many times along the way I have lead myself astray only to crawl my way back, something about the markets hey? I've read into a lot of material available but found this thread has been just what I needed to read to get my head back on track. The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life. I might be going over the top with this but felt given you have put hours of your own time over the last few years into helping people like me I felt you deserved some thanks, even if from just an average joe.

On another note, I think given your track record and determination it won't be long till you turn things around for the last few down weeks. I'll be continuing to follow this thread as long as it stays active and look forward to when the time comes where I can contribute something of value.

Cheers,
Dean.

Thanks a lot. I appreciate the post. Glad it's helped.

I'm hoping to make this thread a whole lot more exciting when some bigger results come!
Will be interesting to see where this is in 1-2 years!

 

[pavilion103]

Dean

Your right--few people realize this!



A very important question.
What's happening to you is a universal phenomenon. I'm teaching Kris discretionary trading now and he is doing exactly as you are!

How do you get out of the cycle.

Its all about timing and not taking a trade on a hunch.
(1) Don't take a trade in NO MANS LAND. (Between Support or Resistance.)
(2) Learn how to analyse a consolidation
(3) Learn how to recognise a continuation micro pattern.
(4)Look at the charts above where you should take a trade be sure you are at an area where you'll know really quickly if your wrong.
(5) Understand volume in these patterns.
(6) Recognise individual reversal and continuation bars.
(7) Understand to get set you may need a couple of bites.
e.g. for me a 5 tick loss x 3 is fine for a 45 tick gain.
(8) Don't develop a bias!
(9) Exit when you can see a clear change of sentiment---in your timeframe. (Wont be just one bar).
(10) Learn how to combine time frames to stay on the right side of a trade.
(11) Smaller time frame S&R will only be minor.

Keep at it one day its like looking at a familiar face. That's when you know your there!

Brilliant as always.

 

[5oclock]

Sounds good PAV, will make this thread even more widely read !!!!