The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

I'm glad that Tech has contributed to this thread in recent weeks because I've been very quiet. I've had a boring few weeks.

The truth is that I have traded quite poorly in a market which has not moved. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses.

I start my course this week and I'll only be able to trade 3 nights a week for the next 7 weeks.

After a roaring start to the year I sit on a profit (FTSE only) of around $7,000. My par profit for this point of the year is $4,500 so fortunately, due to my first two good weeks I am well ahead despite three weeks of small losses.


Psychology is my big focus at the moment: taking fewer and better setups while leaving the rest alone.
I have written up some notes which I might post during the week.

My big issue is over-trading.
I need to stop. Take a step back and be selective.
It really does only take 1 or 2 good trades a week to make good money.

When daylight savings changes in 7 weeks my part profit at that point is $11,500.
So that's another $4,500 in 7 weeks which is around $640 per week, so certainly achievable with 3 nights a week until then.

Right now the goal is to trade well. Nothing more. I've lost focus of this which is easy to happen when making big profits.

If I trade well I will beat my goal easily.
If I don't I won't even get there.

 

[tech/a]

I'm glad that Tech has contributed to this thread in recent weeks because I've been very quiet. I've had a boring few weeks.

The truth is that I have traded quite poorly in a market which has not moved. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses.

I start my course this week and I'll only be able to trade 3 nights a week for the next 7 weeks.

After a roaring start to the year I sit on a profit (FTSE only) of around $7,000. My par profit for this point of the year is $4,500 so fortunately, due to my first two good weeks I am well ahead despite three weeks of small losses.


Psychology is my big focus at the moment: taking fewer and better setups while leaving the rest alone.
I have written up some notes which I might post during the week.

My big issue is over-trading.
I need to stop. Take a step back and be selective.
It really does only take 1 or 2 good trades a week to make good money.

When daylight savings changes in 7 weeks my part profit at that point is $11,500.
So that's another $4,500 in 7 weeks which is around $640 per week, so certainly achievable with 3 nights a week until then.

Right now the goal is to trade well. Nothing more. I've lost focus of this which is easy to happen when making big profits.

If I trade well I will beat my goal easily.
If I don't I won't even get there.

Love a success story---well done PAV--It can and should be fun!

 

[pavilion103]

Like yourself Tech, I like to put myself on the line and give my thoughts in real time (to a degree) as much as possible.

If I post my success I also post my failure.
I want people to see the struggles and triumphs as they happen.
I can't imagine there are too many places where you will find this.

I don't mind putting myself on the line because if I perform poorly then I will be judged as I deserve. If I perform well I will also be judged as deserved.

It would be easy to come on and give them impression that I'm up $15,000 or $20,000 for he year by posting all my wins but no one will benefit from that.

You're right, it is a fun journey.
I love the game.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The truth is that I have traded quite poorly in a market which has not moved. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses.

On the contrary, I believe the FTSE has been volatile of late and you got chopped up in the noise and/or held a down trend bias. Check the ATR on the 15/01/2015 hitting near 110. Getting chopped up in volatile markets with tight stops is not uncommon.

 

[tech/a]

NAH
Plenty of opportunity in that lot.




X is too but not short!

 

[pavilion103]

On the contrary, I believe the FTSE has been volatile of late and you got chopped up in the noise and/or held a down trend bias. Check the ATR on the 15/01/2015 hitting near 110. Getting chopped up in volatile markets with tight stops is not uncommon.


View attachment 61481

Last 2 weeks = no trending.

Consolidation at the top waiting for the next move.

Easier to make money on the next move than on the consolidation at the top.

 

[pavilion103]

Not 100% confident about the direction at the moment in terms of big trending days but I took this one.

Just wanted a low risk entry near the base.

If I get taken I get taken. Just looking for RR trades while this isn't trending heaps.

 

[pavilion103]

I find longs a little more challenging than shorts personally.

With longs I really need an obvious support level.
I then need some good indication of a low (price pushing down but holding) on the 3 min.

On the chart above it looked like we had that with the reversal bar on the 3 min. However, there was no consolidation bar for confirmation and the setup was just too wide once it moved up.

At that point I have to be patient and not panic.
My thinking is:
"I can take a stupid 15 point risk setup hoping it's the bottom, but that is just silly" (I've done it before)
OR
"I must wait for this to push down. If I miss it I miss it. I will not tolerate a poor setup even if it means missing out on a move. So I'll wait patiently for IF it pulls back."

Once it pulls back I can't be silly. It could easily shoot through and take out the low so I can't just guess (unless it is a very clear reversal bottom in which case I might set a 5-6 point limit buy with a stop below the low), I wait for price to push towards the low of the day and then consolidate with a good indication that it failed to push lower. THEN - green light - I can take a 4-5 point limit buy with a stop to the low and not stress even if I get taken out


Just some insights into my thinking....

 

[pavilion103]

30 minute chart of the last 2 weeks.
I'm in in a great spot on the daily. Right at the low. So if this does trend up I'm a good chance to not get stopped out.

I have two choices.
1 - Lift at 6790 if it gets there for 30 points.
2 - Hold with the chance of this breaking higher through the triangle.

This is where I'm disappointed that I missed out on the second contract.
It makes decisions easier when you can "hedge".

My thinking is that I leave this with the chance that it could break higher.
Sure I could lift for 30 if it gets there and it's a good day's pay.
But IF this thing does happen to break higher, the payoff could be large.

So I will sit on this for now.

That's 1 hour of work.
About 10 minutes of that actually required any sort of thinking, while I sat here drinking my tea and listening to classical music haha.
Stop close to BE now.
I'll turn it off and walk away and anything is a bonus.

 

[pavilion103]

Not to be tonight.
I guess the point is to minimize risk and over time you'll have an edge trading this way..

3 weeks of no trending. Tough conditions.

Need to keep executing well and have faith in the results following at some point.

 

[tech/a]

Boom!!

Missed the Up move!!!!!!

Short at 10840



Covered at 10830

 

[pavilion103]

I don't know what to expect here.....

FTSE this is a resistance level 6790.
It pushed through slightly.
Is this a false break or will it now dip down a little before breaking through???

This has not been the easiest 3 weeks I've ever seen!!!

 

[pavilion103]

6788 long.

A good little consolidation there. No chart right now sorry.

 

[tech/a]

Testing highs
bit busy!

Got a bit of that god awful trading.
went long 858 Still long

Have trailing at 885
Have to go---visitors.
Missed so much tonight --not on the ball!

Edit

Nah Its topped 901--out I can relax.

 

[pavilion103]

This continues to be tough going for me this week.

I just refused to adapt to market conditions and it has killed me.
Rather than looking for 15-30 point moves, I am giving away all open profit and losing by chasing and taking poor setups.

I have really sat down and analysed some very strict methods of how I want to trade long in particular. I may share some of these thoughts when I consolidate them over the weekend.

I feel that clarity produced good trading.
It is only a lack of clarity and clear plan that leads to confusion and erratic trading.

I am staying calm. Despite four weeks without success, I am still marginally ahead of my target and I have learnt a great deal, which I will consolidate into writing shortly.

 

[tech/a]

PAV

Are you adopting a bias when looking at the chart.

Even subconsciously?

Often that bias will place you on the wrong side of the trade.

Sort of happened to me yesterday.

The reversal off the high volume bar was a valid trade so took it.
Was obvious very quickly that it had no intention of dropping a great deal so covered.
I watched the consolidation and was of the opinion that it was going to test the high---the recent one.
Closed down the screen and answered an email---no conditional order and should have 2 screens!!!!

Finished the email opened the screen and BOOM bloody missed it.
Could see the consolidation (1 min bars) was really tight so placed a long and short order and got the long.

Rest is commented in the posts.

Kris who is "Learning How to Trade"
Gets on the wrong side ALL the time
His sim account is pretty red!

No BIAS the market already has one and will show you what it IS!

 

[pavilion103]

My contextual analysis = great (in terms of where to enter positions).

Knowing what setups to take = great. I am very clear about what I want.

My problems are:
1) I am very loose and not afraid to throw dollars at the market. If I am at the screen I often overtrade. I have put measures in place to actually walk away from the screen if I know the type of setup I want isn't happening in the next 10 mins. So looking at the screen makes me a bit anxious at times and dive in stupidly. Invariably it moves in the direction I knew it would but I get taken out or I enter in a stupid place where a pullback will take me out.
I need to say -- These are the setups I'm taking, in these places. All else I won't touch.

2) I feel like I have to trade every night. This is a big problem. I worry that "this could be the night a position trade starts." I need to eradicate this mindset. I have hardly missed a single position trade, yet I panic in "hope". The reality is that I need only ONE or TWO good trades per week. I cannot put this into practice. I need to. Even 1 per day is better than taking 3 or 4 per day which aren't really there.

3) I am unwilling to take 15-20 point profits in this market because I see them as insignificant. I need to eradicate this mindset also. 3 moves in a week = say 50 points = $1,000. Not bad in a non-trending week.


I know very clearly what I have to do.
But when the market opens, I can get thrown off.
This is only really a problem for me in non-trending markets.
It isn't disastrous but it is reducing profitability and leading to silly losses.


I am going to write very clearly how I want to trade in particular market conditions, and what parts of the chart I am willing to enter at on each day. I will post thoughts.

I am happy with how I'm going overall but I NEED to overcome these tendancies. It WILL take me to $100,000+ p.a. if I can.

I feel that I am on the very verge of becoming a great trader.

I will post more specific things over the weekend.

 

[avion]

I feel that I am on the very verge of becoming a great trader.

Yes, i had that feeling about half a dozen times so far... :scratch: only to :grenade:


Now i go from c: to to c:

 

[pavilion103]

Yes, i had that feeling about half a dozen times so far... :scratch: only to :grenade:


Now i go from c: to to c:

Yes. Talk is cheap.
Hopefully this thread will show results!

 

[PennD]

I love your honesty and clear self analysis Pav! It looks to me your on the right track...
You could replace my name with yours in that post above and it would all be 100% relevant...
Seems human conditioning leads us to think certain ways which we have to unlearn so as to be able to take our life/trading in a new direction... I am enjoying your thread, thank you!!!

Penn