The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

Will probably be a "what if" week.

Yesterday could have locked in $6,500 for the week. Had I held the long to the resistance above here id be looking at about $9,000.

Will likely end up just under $2,000 up if my short is taken.


For where I'm at, unless there is strong downward momentum exiting is probably a good idea. That momentum was halted yesterday. Could have always reentered the short higher up.

Need the weekend break!
Too up and down this week.

PAV
Your breaking one of your rules

-----not to break your rules!

You have to change your mindset.
Your position trade failed.
No what ifs
You break even on this one.
When you get a position trade that continues you'll have profit that you can only dream of.

Very difficult to hold a long term trade in one direction and trade against it.

You have to keep the analysis and timeframe COMPLETELY.separate.

Remember it's a business,

 

[pavilion103]

PAV
Your breaking one of your rules

-----not to break your rules!

You have to change your mindset.
Your position trade failed.
No what ifs
You break even on this one.
When you get a position trade that continues you'll have profit that you can only dream of.

Very difficult to hold a long term trade in one direction and trade against it.

You have to keep the analysis and timeframe COMPLETELY.separate.

Remember it's a business,

Thank you Tech. The voice of reason as usual.

I think this was one of my best trading weeks in terms of patience and execution.
Also as well as following my rules.


I'm considering the fact that I have both an intra-day strategy and a longer term position trade strategy but nothing in between.

I really feel that the 100-200 point trades could be a very profitable approach. Holding over 2-3 days when momentum is identified. I will work with this a little more, but this idea is really resonating with me.

Intra-day profit is my foundation and bread and butter. Position trades are something I see great merit in. But I need to think about those 100-200 trades a little more because those moves are so frequent.


But you are correct.
Position trades are on a different time frame.
Position trades frequently get taken.
But when they take off, the profit is enormous.


And yes. This is a business.
I need to put it into perspective.
Sometimes luck doesn't go my way even if I do things right.

Even if I finish the week with $1,700, if I averaged that per week it's almost $90,000 for the year.
All good.
Consistency. Build slowly. Big weeks will come. Don't despise a week like this. Ensure losses are minimised. Stick to plan.

 

[tech/a]

Expecting everything to come off pretty hard from here!
DAX short 9818 ---- Current Stop 9872

 

[pavilion103]

Expecting everything to come off pretty hard from here!
DAX short 9818 ---- Current Stop 9872

I'm getting a similar gut feel actually

 

[CanOz]

Yeah, looks like a bit of a slide, but don't forget its NFP night....Not a good night to try and hang onto a position trade so heads up!

 

[tech/a]

Out 04
Not waiting around.

Taking your advice Can

 

[pavilion103]

hmm... I've got no idea of exactly what impact the NFP has.

I am holding my original trade at BE.

I took 2 more tonight @6504.

Had intended to leave them and check before tomorrow morning.

It seems that wisdom says there is a lot of uncertainty with the NFP to come out.


Tonight I had multiple low risk attempts to get trades at this crucial point on the daily.

I was down 25 points trying to do so.

I've now taken one position off (because of NFP) and I'm breakeven for the night.


I have 2 running.

1 with the original stop

1 with the stop at BE tonight.


I think with the uncertainty I best at least get myself to BE for the night.

 

[pavilion103]

Tonight was a really god experience for me.

I've realised more and more that if you have the context for the day right, and you are patient, you can get good limit order entries for 3-5 points risk in good spots. Even if you get taken you can get back in again if the opportunity presents because entry is cheap.

I feel like I've traded incredibly well this week (just not the results ).


Interested to see what happens tonight.

6460 is a bit of a resistance level on the FTSE anyway so always expected a pause around here.
NFP will be interesting. I'm guessing it can move the market around a lot and take out stops.

 

[pavilion103]

Just lifted one of my remaining two for 90 points.

Will leave the original position trade as planned!


Grrrr!!! That third one would have been nice!

 

[pavilion103]

Good result.

Glad to finish the week with some good profit.


Anyone else who wants to post up trades/ charts feel free to.

Did people have a good week?

Where do people see it going from here?

I'll post up some more stuff tody or tomorow

 

[pavilion103]

This is my own private analysis that I do each night and save to my files.

Happy to provide this if it is beneficial and generates some discussion.

Note with this type of entry:
1) Price WILL usually push down to re-test the top of the "base".
2) It will often take out the price where the most obvious long entry was.
3) It is IMPERATIVE to get on the long ASAP. Early identification and aggressive entry will often ensure that you are kept in the trade rather than being taken out at BE. Don't be reckless and pre-empt anything, but when ample confirmation is there ACT IMMEDIATELY.
4) The push down to the top of the base is actually a decent place for a re-entry. Don't be scared by the falling price action. It is slugglish and is quite different from what would be expected if there was a sharp fall ahead.

 

[pavilion103]

This is last night's entry.

Analysis on the chart.

So much to consider here.

 

[pavilion103]

My position trade.

Up just over 110 at present.

Will be looking to add if it doesn't get taken out.

High RR area for a short IMO.
Not saying it WILL go lower, but looks like the type of place I'd want to get on in case it does.

 

[pavilion103]

Not sure if I will post profits every week but I've posted pretty much my whole week's journey so I will this time.

Up around $2,700.
Position trade also around $2,100 open profit.

It shows what an up and down week it can be.

From all I've posted you can see I could have been up over $10,000 had things gone my way.
Had I not got on those shorts last night and I taken a loss for the night I could have been on as little as $500 for the week.

So pretty much anything on offer from $500-10,000 for me. Up $4,800 (including open profit which could vanish). Right in the middle of that range. Not too bad.

 

[pavilion103]

Also I'm not sure if people have picked up in my posting that I've begun to take more low-risk (in terms of initial points risk) limit orders in tight consolidation areas.

Tech gave me some really good perspective in a conversation a few weeks back.
It centred on trading the 1 minute chart; identifying low risk opportunities; and looking at volume and how price reacted following volume.

Some very good insights.

 

[tech/a]

Excellent charts PAV
Clear setups and a strong bias toward reading
Past and present chart and pattern formation.
Look a lot like mine--- we both see similar yet we can both see
Different opportunities within the same chart and same context.

 

[payday]

Thank you pav for the excellent overview of your trades. Very clear and concise description and great examples of objective entries and also how you manage the trades. Your growth in trading is astounding. Now to the next phase which I am sure will be soon, and that is to manage larger positions. No reason why you can't as long as you stay focussed and objective as you have already shown you can.

 

[pavilion103]

Thank you pav for the excellent overview of your trades. Very clear and concise description and great examples of objective entries and also how you manage the trades. Your growth in trading is astounding. Now to the next phase which I am sure will be soon, and that is to manage larger positions. No reason why you can't as long as you stay focussed and objective as you have already shown you can.

Appreciate your feedback and interest in the thread.

Size is something I have been thinking about.
Given that the downside is being managed quite well there is no reason why another contract can't be added in good spots.
It changes perspective a lot.
All of a sudden a reasonable night of 40 point move is magnified - x3 becomes $2,300. The money starts to get big.
If one of these is left to run could be even more.


How much I let trades run and take profit will also be dependent upon objectives.
I set myself a goal at the start of 2011 and that was to be able to make a living from trading by 1st Jan 2016.

If I make $50,000-60,000 this year in trading (almost my salary - $65,000), I intend to apply for 1 year leave without pay from work (which might be an available option) and see if I can support myself in 2016 by trading.
The safety net will be there that I could go back at any time (even after a couple of months if I choose). There is basically zero risk. This follows me having cut back to 4 days in 2014.

I intend to make more than the above amount, but I will need to get to that checkpoint first. I have lacked consistency in the past, but I feel I am able to achieve consistency now. This is a lot of the reason why I am posting so much on here. To keep accountable.

Interesting year ahead.

 

[pavilion103]

I feel bad talking about myself to much. I know I started this thread as my transition into futures trading but anyone else feel free to post. Trades, objectives, goals, dreams, thoughts..... whatever.

I know many may not be as willing to divulge the personal information I have, however I think that this is a great place to discuss whatever we want in relation to futures trading and our ambitions, victories and struggles.

 

[debtfree]

Once again thanks Pav for your charts and explanation of your trades, I get a lot out of them and they are helping me.

I get the feeling there are a lot of people watching and learning on the sidelines and not posting so don't feel bad about talking about yourself, please carry on.