The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Thanks guys.

Things went to plan last night. Glad I've got one on.

I feel, however, that the night could have been anything.

Thought really hard about holding the second until this morning.
Same with 6453. Considered holding at BE. Took 15 points before bed instead because there was risk of it being taken.
Even almost took another one while I was in the 6453 one (6450, stop 6451.5) which would have held.

You can't nail it all perfectly. But this just shows that on a trending day you can get low risk setups along the way to add to your position. A really good chance to make hundred of points on those days if it's a fairly clear run down.

Just some things for us to think about going forward..........

But who can complain with 50 points and an open position trade well in the money.



Interesting from here. I was initially thinking 6200ish to take the position trade off. We aren't too far away if it pushes down in the next few days. Whether it smashes right down I don't know but I won't do anything too risky if it goes to the previous lows. Want to lock some in.

Volatiltiy in the up and down moves recently has been huge.

 

[pavilion103]

Short SPI.
5343, stop 5350.
Got it to BE quick.

Push up to resistance of previous days then some no demand consolidation on 1 min. In conjunction with 5 min.

Tough to know how to play this. Space below.

 

[pavilion103]

Stop 5322

 

[pavilion103]

Profit taken - 40 points. $1,000.

Even though this could well go lower I won't hold a trade unless I'm "safe" or it's right near the top. In this case it's too much of a gamble to throw away 40 points.

1. Last week I had a ripper of an entry - 5,440. 30 points from the top. I didn't hold which was against my plan.
2. Then I got in yesterday at around 5420 for an intented position trade and this just got taken out by a few points.
3. Then last night I entered a SPI contract out of hours (when trading FTSE) for 5,400 for a 5 point intitial risk. Then I exited it minutes later in case I wanted more money to take more FTSE contracts. In the end the 5,400 was untouched and I'd be laughing at 100 points up.

So the opportunities were there. 1 & 3 were my stupidity. 2 was unlucky. I could have been aggressive and gone in again with this one but it would have been a little wide for my liking.

Strategy 3 is an interesting one.
I have no idea the merits of it but I've done it a few times with good effect.
In the right places I will happily do this again.


So SPI will be purely intra-day for me going forward in this move.

 

[tech/a]

Agree PAV at least in the immediate short term.
I expect tonight and tomorrow to snap back a bit

 

[pavilion103]

Agree PAV at least in the immediate short term.
I expect tonight and tomorrow to snap back a bit

It will be interesting to see the reaction of the market the next couple of nights.
I'm hoping it doesn't push up too violently.

I'm thinking 200 points is quite safe for the moment.

A push up would offer another good opportunity to get on another good short.

I'll be at the cricket tonight so I can sit back and not worry about it too much!

 

[pavilion103]

Also I'm not sure how much weighting to put on this Tech, but it is interesting to note that the last two moves (down and then up), both occurred with no real pullback. I'm not sure why the moves were so swift, and I'm not implying that the same will happen again, but it is just an observation.

 

[tech/a]

Also I'm not sure how much weighting to put on this Tech, but it is interesting to note that the last two moves (down and then up), both occurred with no real pullback. I'm not sure why the moves were so swift, and I'm not implying that the same will happen again, but it is just an observation.

Pretty common with distribution.

 

[CanOz]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an inside day if the lows can hold. If that can be achieved then it would certainly setup nicely for a short covering rally...if the lows can't hold here on the major indices then obviously we're going much lower....

Fwiw, the volume going over the top on all the indices was very light, day time frame traders seemed in control the whole time. It's almost as if the big boys just waited for the exits to get over run before scooping up the bargains...but that's just the cynic in me I guess...If you think about though, it makes perfect sense with a market priced at these multiples, if you can't find any bargains, engineer some of your own simply but not participating. Nice clean out for the start of the year...

 

[dead trader]

Agree with you there CanOz!

I'm seeing a bearish flag formation on the DAX. If it goes south, we are heading so much south it is not funny.

 

[dead trader]

I entered short 2 contracts, limit order at 9448.

 

[pavilion103]

At the cricket.
Only saw first 5 mins.
Took a sneaky entry which got taken.
Bloody annoying.
Another 30 mins and I would have been back in.

Ah well.

1 running.

 

[pavilion103]

1 trade tonight. Long 6316 out for 50 points.

Thinking it may go higher but 50 is enough for me. 1 contract only so want to lock some in.
At a top from yesterday.
Waiting on US open.

Still holding position trade as planned.
Was tempted to just exit but plan is to hold.

Anyone have any thoughts on daily chart analysis.
I'm thining next few nights will paint a picture.

Low volume tonight on this push up compared to last 2.

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting couple of nights ahead. How price reacts on this push up will determine a lot.

 

[pavilion103]

Holy heck that's some gap on the DAX!!!

Should have held my FTSE over night!

 

[pavilion103]

As long as the FTSE gaps up then comes back and closes it will be happy!

I've got around 150 points to play with in my position trade.

 

[prophetable]

Ive been wondering how to document my trading plan recently and thanks to Pav i reckon i will follow a similar way of writing my trade areas down.
Thanks for your insights into your plan setup Pav - it helps me a lot to visualise how im going to do it.
Your efforts from the start of this thread are appreciated.

Cheers
Prophetable

 

[tech/a]

As long as the FTSE gaps up then comes back and closes it will be happy!

I've got around 150 points to play with in my position trade.

The DAX looks Bullish PAV.
Think it will hold long at last until the DJIA open

Not taken a trade though

 

[pavilion103]

The DAX looks Bullish PAV.
Think it will hold long at last until the DJIA open

Not taken a trade though

Less than 100 to play with.

Thinking taking 200 in the hand would have been wise.

Exiting my long yesterday for no real reason also costly.

A few things I'd do differently.
Learnt a bit from this experience.

 

[pavilion103]

Will probably be a "what if" week.

Yesterday could have locked in $6,500 for the week. Had I held the long to the resistance above here id be looking at about $9,000.

Will likely end up just under $2,000 up if my short is taken.


For where I'm at, unless there is strong downward momentum exiting is probably a good idea. That momentum was halted yesterday. Could have always reentered the short higher up.

Need the weekend break!
Too up and down this week.