Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The transition to Futures trading

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ThingyMajiggy said:
I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R?
Click to expand...

Correct. That is not a chart representation of price but rather momentum. Nothing moves in a straight line and support and resistance in terms of a nice straight area on a chart are continually breached. But if you can recognise that the momentum comes and goes in waves while moving towards a higher time frame target S/R become more dynamic in terms of price and more static in terms of a time.
 
Whoa, now we are onto something... Go on Sam, ask more questions, you know what to ask unlike myself...
 
Look at the chart again.,

He's trading reversion to the mean and swings---as they do away from that mean.

Love it.

Sit down and watch a pendulum.
Bet you see a recognisable face!

Charts do the same in an erratic manner.
Its not noise if you know what your looking for.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Correct. That is not a chart representation of price but rather momentum. Nothing moves in a straight line and support and resistance in terms of a nice straight area on a chart are continually breached. But if you can recognise that the momentum comes and goes in waves while moving towards a higher time frame target S/R become more dynamic in terms of price and more static in terms of a time.
Click to expand...
Do you only use volume to track momentum on your chart ... ?
Cheers
 
What I get from those simplistic charts TH posted is what all of trading is based on.
Oddly enough I've only come to realise it lately. :eek:

First chart Noise followed by higher low then breakout

Second Trading range buy at support sell at resistance.

Happens all day long in every market around the globe.

The problem for anyone not making money is in their difficulty to see those patterns form in real time so they know what to expect and know how to trade it.
 
dlineinvestor said:
What I get from those simplistic charts TH posted is what all of trading is based on.
Oddly enough I've only come to realise it lately. :eek:

...

Second Trading range buy at support sell at resistance.
Click to expand...

Only, he just said that's not S&R. Go back and have a think.

(Note well: I can't trade chop at all, so please don't think I'm being smug. Last night's EUR/USD in the Europe session is a prime example. I can't trade that. Can't do it. I sit out and go onto sim and try to find SOMETHING, but I've never cracked it. The only thing I can be proud about days like that is that I can see them at a glance and stay the hell out).
 
avion said:
Not wrong at all barney... As for psychological damage, it is serious stuff, very hard to overcome. 9 out of 10 trades i still exit to early. Conquering yourself is the holy grail imho.
Click to expand...

Yeah it can be a tough gig that's for sure ... Confidence in whatever trading method we use is the key to unlock the door for mine. I have a lot of ideas/questions I'd like to test but have no way of back testing ...... Excel is like another language once I get past adding and multiplying :eek: :D
 
dlineinvestor said:
Do you only use volume to track momentum on your chart ... ?
Cheers
Click to expand...

Again just my interpretation, but Momentum simply becomes the "Indicator" which confirms the directional bias, and the directional bias is the statistical edge which has already been confirmed by back testing etc etc. If I've got the bull by the horns I'm sure TH will correct me:eek:
 
Weatsop said:
Only, he just said that's not S&R. Go back and have a think.

(Note well: I can't trade chop at all, so please don't think I'm being smug. Last night's EUR/USD in the Europe session is a prime example. I can't trade that. Can't do it. I sit out and go onto sim and try to find SOMETHING, but I've never cracked it. The only thing I can be proud about days like that is that I can see them at a glance and stay the hell out).
Click to expand...

I've re-read last few posts and s and r is not what TH is talking about, +1 weatsop.
When I looked at the sinewave chart I thought TH was illustrating buy in supp sell at resistance but no.

This works most of the time BUT what I struggle with is when do you believe either will hold when your about to pull the trigger?.
I did ask this question earlier on post # 3633 page 182 but no replies yet.

Hence my ask to TH about how he tracks momentum, was it volume he said "yes but "not in this example.
So tech says its about reverting to the mean.

What constitutes the mean ?
I would appreciate a price chart with a revert to mean example, anyone else ? Use the DAX for example
Cheers for any input :)
 
dlineinvestor said:
I've re-read last few posts and s and r is not what TH is talking about, +1 weatsop.
When I looked at the sinewave chart I thought TH was illustrating buy in supp sell at resistance but no.

This works most of the time BUT what I struggle with is when do you believe either will hold when your about to pull the trigger?.
I did ask this question earlier on post # 3633 page 182 but no replies yet.
Click to expand...

Mate I don't worry so much about a hard line on the chart as support because I know that to get from point A to point B on a larger time frame there is going to be many zigs and zags on the shorter time frames to get there. Many of them will push through what looks like tradition S/R on a chart and then come back and push through ones on the other side, that is the market. It is designed to trap the obvious play. And yet it does move to support or resistance on a larger time frame.

So given these two things, smaller zigs & zags and larger moves between S&R, I trade with the larger S&R as the idea and try to make some ticks on the small zigs & zags by building and reducing my position.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Mate I don't worry so much about a hard line on the chart as support because I know that to get from point A to point B on a larger time frame there is going to be many zigs and zags on the shorter time frames to get there. Many of them will push through what looks like tradition S/R on a chart and then come back and push through ones on the other side, that is the market. It is designed to trap the obvious play. And yet it does move to support or resistance on a larger time frame.

So given these two things, smaller zigs & zags and larger moves between S&R, I trade with the larger S&R as the idea and try to make some ticks on the small zigs & zags by building and reducing my position.
Click to expand...

Understood
Larger time frames s/r .. I use 1hr and 15 min s/r to guage my 5 and 1 min trading.
What I need to get under my belt is the process or technique to better know if that "s or r" will break or hold.
Any input on that would be great :D
Cheers
 
Any input on that would be great
Click to expand...

Just a bit of my observations on a 3 min chart.
Looking for this to re test the latest highs which
have been tested tonight.

Click to expand
DAX 3 minute right now.
Long 710 and a sell placed 750
stop at B/E---now.

Dax Support.gif
 
Trembling Hand - I can relate to what your saying and I'm only really just starting to get a knack for that zig zag. I believe the markets are extremely dynamic and can be anticipated with fair accuracy when looking at it from human behavioural perspective . In the last three weeks I have picked up two patterns that have amazing success rates. I mean it's so obvious they are just sitting there but everyone seems to be looking for the technically complicated or guaranteed answer. Get on - ride it - get off, Get on - ride it whilst it's approaching that obvious level everyone is watching - get off, fade it, Retests an area - wants to break through and explore - scalp it, bid/offers start to aggressively defend a price, get on, ride it. It's so hard to explain but it's there for those who are willing to believe and watch. Dlineinvestor
You will never truly know if it's going to break or hold but can only ANTICIPATE what it's going to do.
 
Jasonm2310 said:
[I have picked up two patterns that have amazing success rates. I mean it's so obvious they are just sitting there but everyone seems to be looking for the technically complicated or guaranteed answer.
Click to expand...

Hi J 2310, TH is a freak for sure and if/when:)rolleyes:) I ever get to trade consistently it will largely due to his "advice"

M8, if you are able to post up an example of those patterns for us mere mortals to peruse it would be greatly appreciated:)

Cheers.
 

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