The transition to Futures trading

[>Apocalypto<]

I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs

Long here imo

not on the DAX for me the thing is moving 30pts like nothing. i'm sitting and waiting for something clear.

DAXinator on a 5 min bar moved down 97+ points. angry

 

[pavilion103]

I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs Long here imo

Doesn't look like a shakeout which has pushed back up quickly.

This is going even lower IMO.


I haven't taken a trade since I turned it off. Smart.

 

[pavilion103]

Oh didn't see that little dip below.

Still not gutsy enough to go long here.

 

[skyQuake]

ftse drops 200pts then rallies 100, has one of the highest vol bars (non-close) bars I've ever seen!

Hopefully that 6050 level is a swing low

 

[pavilion103]

I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs Long here imo

Good call

 

[pavilion103]

If yesterday starts to look a bit bullish then this morning looks much more so.

I think what I need to drill in is that I don't have to be a hero and get in at the absolute bottom or top of a pivot. Confirmation first will reduce losses.

Then if I get on NEAR the start of a decent move I'll be able to capture a large portion of it. I think what I am concerned about is trying to take a position trade and getting taken out because my stop isn't at the absolute top/ bottom. Stupid and costly thinking. There is always plenty of opportunity to capture a move.

 

[fiftyeight]

Yeah buying at the bottom the range definitely seems to have a few advantages including getting to B/E quickly. Loosing money is not fun. But probably need to be at the screen to make it work, maybe I should just quit my job now:

Cheers Kid look forward to it.

I have been watching the DOM to try and see something, but not happening yet.

Thanks for the input TH, obviously not the way I want to trade but I think there is some ideas there I can steal

 

[tech/a]

Yeah buying at the bottom the range definitely seems to have a few advantages including getting to B/E quickly. Loosing money is not fun. But probably need to be at the screen to make it work, maybe I should just quit my job now:

Cheers Kid look forward to it.

I have been watching the DOM to try and see something, but not happening yet.

Thanks for the input TH, obviously not the way I want to trade but I think there is some ideas there I can steal

In practice its not as clear cut as just placing long buys at a support zone or shorts at a resistance zone.
The questions I asked T/H do come into play and as his reply makes clear there are no clear cut points of reference to hang your plan on. He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd---or if un recognisable gets out.

There are ways of playing all setups and making them as risk averse as possible while always trying to increase % winners and decrease losers.

Personally I know I'm going to have losers and if I use the go to B/E method Ill have a lot more stopped out.
BUT WHAT I DO KNOW Is that when I get on momentum my winning value will be well above my combined losers. My Reward to risk in real terms will be more than acceptable.

 

[pavilion103]

Tech, the way that you taught me to trade resonated strongly with me from the beginning. I know that there are many successful approaches and that there are many traders, even on here, who are far more successful than I right now who use other approaches. But to me it makes sense.

One of my most beneficial observations is this:

Almost every time, my best trades take off from the start.

If this doesn't occur, I find myself "hoping" that the trade will continue in my direction.

Once the trade is far enough along, the stop goes to BE.

Sure it is frustrating being stopped at BE. But MOST times that I get stopped at BE, if I had left the initial stop where it was it would have been taken out.

The peace of mind is incredible though. There is little worry about the downside. The account consistently builds.

With this level of risk management I can then, over time, continue to add more contracts if I want profit to increase, all the while, minimising my risk.


Further to this, most of my setups actually come in the first hour and near the high or low of the day. Stop to BE. Maybe take one (or both) off for 30-40 and set and forget if I want to leave it overnight in a trend. 1 hour of my time after work. Perfect.

 

[tech/a]

Almost every time, my best trades take off from the start

Mine too.

The peace of mind is incredible though. There is little worry about the downside. The account consistently builds.

All the things you'd want from a good business---even if its part time.

 

[Trembling Hand]

In practice its not as clear cut as just placing long buys at a support zone or shorts at a resistance zone.
The questions I asked T/H do come into play and as his reply makes clear there are no clear cut points of reference to hang your plan on. He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd---or if un recognisable gets out.

Actually what has probably been overlook and will greatly confuse chart watches is this,

In spite of the nice straight boxes my S/R are more about time and a bit more dynamic than a static line.

I'm probably not trading S/R as much as that chart I posted indicates.

 

[avion]

He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd...

...funny, but i understand what you are trying to communicate Tech. Just wonder if you've ever experienced some of those moments (trades) yourself? Maybe they are the only trades you take... It seems TH is experiencing those every day multiple times. On the other hand if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation, ie the speed of order hits, other market behaviors, etc... What sort of experience is required to achieve reasonable level of performance. I reckon minimum of 5 years...

 

[tech/a]

Actually what has probably been overlook and will greatly confuse chart watches is this,



I'm probably not trading S/R as much as that chart I posted indicates.

The Vid is cryptic!

If it is more about time (and I do see this in more forms than just consolidation moves.)
I presume the decision to stay in an anticipated move IE Buying as price hits a zone---diminishes with time.
Meaning the anticipation for the move to pan out diminishes and as such helps your buy/hold or sell process.

As for time.
If I'm on or see a move going vertical I know this isn't going to go on infinitum.
The longer it goes and the longer the consolidation at the end of it (Generally after a massive volume bar) the more likely the outcome will be determined by the length of time price does what it does.--Short or long.

I know you know what I mean.

 

[tech/a]

...funny, but i understand what you are trying to communicate Tech. Just wonder if you've ever experienced some of those moments (trades) yourself? Maybe they are the only trades you take... It seems TH is experiencing those every day multiple times. On the other hand if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation, ie the speed of order hits, other market behaviors, etc... What sort of experience is required to achieve reasonable level of performance. I reckon minimum of 5 years...

Yes I know what he means.
He is doing this far more than I am being a prop trader.
I'm at my desk running a civil construction company.
He sees his mother more often than I do!

I personally think its the number of charts you watch.
as T/H has said get as much as you can crank the speed to 10x and absorb!
So if you look at 10,000 charts after 20,000 you'll be better and 50,0000 better still.
You end up feeling it----as its happening.

 

[Weatsop]

He sees his mother more often than I do!

Why, how often do you see his mother?

 

[Trembling Hand]

The Vid is cryptic!

You obviously haven't seen breaking bad?!

Yes I know what he means.
He is doing this far more than I am being a prop trader.
I'm at my desk running a civil construction company.
He sees his mother more often than I do!

Yeah I think that it boils down to me being at the screen throughout the whole day every day vs you who hasn't the time to waste doing that.

You trade this (Red bit) because its most efficient use of limited time,




I trade this (Red bit),



Although ultimately I am also trying to get the huge move just like you but my method has evolved to take $ out on most days even if that huge move doesn't show up. Which for lots of reasons is often.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

I trade this (Red bit),

View attachment 59879

Although ultimately I am also trying to get the huge move just like you but my method has evolved to take $ out on most days even if that huge move doesn't show up. Which for lots of reasons is often.

I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R? Are you referring to swings in X minute intervals? Can you explain more?

 

[avion]

I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R? Are you referring to swings in X minute intervals? Can you explain more?

Indicates just a chop to me, he is able to trade chop or noise to most...

 

[barney]

if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation

For me, that's all I am trying to learn to recognise from this point forward. I've traded badly for so long its hard to fix it, but the aim is clear ......

You need to have a bias (based on past information/back testing/your own experience) on where the day (if a day trader), or the week (if a swinger) is likely to head towards .... If you get the bias wrong and/or don't recognise it early enough you will get crucified. I used to get crucified regularly; now I only get horse whipped or on a good night, spanked

Assuming the correct bias, and gradually loading up enough positions to take advantage of the "explosion" by trading in and out of the short term Range is an absolute art form and I am still amazed at how good some people are at it.

That's my take on it anyway .... could be totally wrong

 

[avion]

Not wrong at all barney... As for psychological damage, it is serious stuff, very hard to overcome. 9 out of 10 trades i still exit to early. Conquering yourself is the holy grail imho.