The transition to Futures trading

[5oclock]

FWIW I think its worth the time and effort trying to learn how to punt the so called 'noise' in the first 30 mins Sam.

KID is this wishful thinking or based on some success you have had with the noise? ( Definition of success in this case may just be better than random results from mental paper trades). By the way, in line with Joes recent remarks about posting,i have decided that i should be more active. Anyhow KID, any thoughts??

 

[kid hustlr]

KID is this wishful thinking or based on some success you have had with the noise? ( Definition of success in this case may just be better than random results from mental paper trades). By the way, in line with Joes recent remarks about posting,i have decided that i should be more active. Anyhow KID, any thoughts??

For me personally in relation to the FTSE - wishful thinking.

Have witnessed a handful of traders - across several markets - have better than good success in the open.

I remember a quote from Trembling Hand some time back about how he loves the open and the majority of the money he was making (at that time) was just having the intuition and understanding of how the market was going to open and trade on that day.

The open often provides the best R:R opportunities of the day.

Apologies if that answer is a bit 'wishy washy' because truth be told I don't completely 'get it' - I've quickly learned in this game though that just because I don't get something doesn't mean it's wrong - I've seen some guys try to justify various things they've done in the market and it's just made no sense @ all but yet they keep coming back day after day making money.

 

[pavilion103]

Love the open.
RR is brilliant.
If you've analyses the background context well it works.
Even getting on a 6R winner you need about a 15% win rate to BE.
Your entry is well out of the way of noise for the rest of the day.
Heck if it's a trending day I can turn it off after 30 mins and not worry about it with stop at BE.

 

[5oclock]

KID and PAV----thanks for the answers----KID,re TH trading, i think my reaction time (being more than 2pico sec) would rule out any TH HFT !!! --"a mans gotta know his limitations", i know most of mine. As far as getting a BIAS for how the market is likely to trade and only swimming WITH the tide, this is easy sometimes,i am concentrating on developing this more(i think this is the main aim)---only problem being,how you develop the BIAS,and if its based on price action in previous sessions or news stories on main stream media. I think this is what you mean re context PAV. I dont place a lot of weight on main stream media stories, having said that obvious biggies are an exception. Any clues you blokes have re how you develop a bias based on "evidence" and less just on " i recon" would be welcome--thanks.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

One way I think some guys get an idea if I remember correctly is to see what the world markets have done, so right now the ES is sitting flat in the globex session, Asian markets look to have been fairly flat today too from what I can see, as far as current +/- % change, so I'm thinking the Dax should open fairly flat, so I'm thinking that if it opens say 10, 15, 20 ticks either way of where it closed, there might be a trade back to flat.....potentially.

UPDATE: So there we go, opened 3-4 ticks lower from where it closed, so fairly flat.

 

[tech/a]

If its likely to be flat then watch TV.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

If its likely to be flat then watch TV.

Afternoon TV? I'd rather die!

 

[pavilion103]

KID and PAV----thanks for the answers----KID,re TH trading, i think my reaction time (being more than 2pico sec) would rule out any TH HFT !!! --"a mans gotta know his limitations", i know most of mine. As far as getting a BIAS for how the market is likely to trade and only swimming WITH the tide, this is easy sometimes,i am concentrating on developing this more(i think this is the main aim)---only problem being,how you develop the BIAS,and if its based on price action in previous sessions or news stories on main stream media. I think this is what you mean re context PAV. I dont place a lot of weight on main stream media stories, having said that obvious biggies are an exception. Any clues you blokes have re how you develop a bias based on "evidence" and less just on " i recon" would be welcome--thanks.

Hope this helps

 

[tech/a]

Afternoon TV? I'd rather die!

Foxtel.

Cant handle "Reality" TV.

I cant cook any better.
I cant sing any better.
I cant build any better.

I've run out of Game of Thrones!

Pav it will test the low OR the high of that range.
I think test resistance --- the high---then down

 

[pavilion103]

I don't look at news for these opens.

I hardly even look at other markets (just a quick glance at how the DOW did last night).

 

[pavilion103]

Foxtel.

Cant handle "Reality" TV.

I cant cook any better.
I cant sing any better.
I cant build any better.

I've run out of Game of Thrones!

You weren't keen on "I want to marry Harry"?

 

[tech/a]

You weren't keen on "I want to marry Harry"?

Must have missed it!

 

[5oclock]

PAV===Thanks for spending that time posting up mate, great job too by the way.

 

[beachlife]

Hope this helps

View attachment 58690

So did you go short in that red box area?

 

[tech/a]

So did you go short in that red box area?

I could be wrong but I'd say PAV either took a hit it would be a small one.
Or didn't trade the short.

What do you reckon B/L

 

[beachlife]

I could be wrong but I'd say PAV either took a hit it would be a small one.
Or didn't trade the short.

What do you reckon B/L

I dont know that's why I asked.

If he took the short then curious if he reversed and took some out of the long side, or if he was so convinced of a short that he tried again later.

If he didnt go short, then curious why not. I dont see any point in making an analysis and then not trading it.

Either way some great lessons for those wanting to learn from him.

 

[tech/a]

I dont know that's why I asked.

If he took the short then curious if he reversed and took some out of the long side, or if he was so convinced of a short that he tried again later.

If he didnt go short, then curious why not. I dont see any point in making an analysis and then not trading it.

Either way some great lessons for those wanting to learn from him.

Those lessons
What would they be?

 

[Newt]

Al Brooks writes some good stuff in his books about how to use the open as an indicator for the day that follows. Basic stuff like gap ups or down against yesterday close, strength of price action, trends continuing through from previous days or last few hours before the close, being cautious approaching existing Strength or Resistance (possibility of reversals).

Captain Hindsight might have said following re today's FTSE open:

- no gap on open, but strong bull bars on 3 to 5 mins charts for first 15mins
- likely follow through off the trend up in the last few hours before close yesterday
- caution required if price approaches highs from last 8 days

 

[Newt]

Err, I can proudly announce my return to live trading today after a few months of trying to sim trade honestly, applying what I've read and watched. Lost $100 in 3mins.

Got in at 19:34 on the expectation of at gaining just a few points on a move up from supporting trend line - through from last few hours yesterday and opening hours today. Work stopped me joining earlier. Price promptly dropped down 7.5 pts before moving up as I expected.

Lessons paid for with my 5 pt stop:

1. Broke my personal rule not to trade with <10mins of analysis of previous days, tonight, and any upcoming news
2. Got too excited at the nice price channel since 2am last night - forgot to draw in the less steep trend line from the open (which was obvious on the 5min chart).

Thank you Captain Hindsight. Bless you!

 

[pavilion103]

Went short.
94.5, 01.
Took the hit.

Considered a low risk long as a hedge 94,90. Didn't take it.

What's your point B/L?