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The transition to Futures trading

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kid hustlr said:
Tech/Pav:

Is this another example of generally what you are looking for? This is a 15 min SPI chart.

My thoughts on the chart

View attachment 53046
Click to expand...

Not enough volume overnight to do any meaningful analysis. SPI will be affected by the bourses overnight.

But the consolidation you show is pretty obvious if you take all 4 bars from open in context.
The open takes out long stops and closes on high volume halfway in range. That is a good signal for me to buy the top of that bar. If you look at a 3 or 5 min chart Ill bet you see a low risk entry.

The next bar is the thrust bar testing the high of the consolidation area.
The next bar takes it out on lowish volume without giving up a close below the impulse bars close.
The next two bars IMPORTANTLY test the high on lowish volume without closing below the close of the impulse bar. The Box you have drawn is another trade setup --long. Volume launches it from there.
 
tech/a said:
Not enough volume overnight to do any meaningful analysis. SPI will be affected by the bourses overnight.
Click to expand...

That is why Asia Futs charts should look like this when trading them.



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By the way I would be very cautious if trading the SPI today. Its been know to do crazy thing on the last day of the fin year. Evil hedgies and their games.

Unless you like that thing of course.
 
Great analysis tech/a appreciated. Agreed the overnight high is off far lesser importance based on the low volume but if nothing else it may add another level of confirmation to a break out trade although clearly it's of little value.

Interesting how you talk about (they take out the 'long stops on open') This is the mindset I think good futures traders have - at the end of the day this is war and you are trying to take someone else's money.

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Interesting you would buy the first bar, its a pretty solid reversal but it can get so messy/crazy in the open I don't feel it has a great risk/reward?

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No way I'd trade the SPI ever to be honest, bunch of algo hicks
 

In the interest of completion.

The duck has feathers.

 
kid hustlr said:
jeepers Pav looks like you were a little unlucky? Did you get stopped at break even? Looks like your stop was the low on the retrace?

Also sent you a PM btw.
Click to expand...

Bloody heck!
Could have easily made my entry 68 instead of 69. Low was 68.5.
Unlucky but that's the way it goes. These frustrations will occur.
Just happy I did everything right. Identified the opportunity with momentum. Got on it. Eliminated risk early. On another day that's 30 or 40 points.

I'll check the PM. I've been a bit slack!
 
Boys, one more and I'll leave you alone for the weekend.

I'm very interested to get your thoughts on the below chart. its a 60 min chart on the Aussie 3 year bond futures. Now these typically don't chart well (tight ranges, lots of chop, little breakout opportunities) but I want to check if my understanding of the high volume/wide range bars is on par with how you see it. See chart below which provides my thoughts/context.

 

I find Candles hard to look at prefer bar charts.
But I agree generally with your findings.
The secret is the following bar from the wide range high volume.(Very high volume really!)
If it gives back little or nothing you are pretty safe to call it an impulse move in the direction of trend and is very likely to keep running

If it doubles back more than half and closes less than half of the range of the wide range bar then its weak and not likely to be an impulse regardless of this bar (the one that doubles back) volume.
mind you higher volume is worse.
 
Stop to breakeven. Now no risk.

Triple top on the weekly chart. This top is obvious on the daily chart too. I'm not sure about the longer term implications.

I'm not sure what that huge volume bar from Friday's trading indicates on the weekly chart. Will watch price around there and see if it moves through. Not sure how wide the spread will be in today's action.

My main issue is how long to hold for. I don't see any signs of volume or reversal to indicate a change at the moment. Will watch this.

Happy to have identified momentum and stop to break even.



 
hmmmm.....interesting reversal
 
Stopped.

I should have paid more attention to the volume with a zoomed in chart of today's action (5 min).

Some heavier volume on the fall to 6180 - 6160

I think I need to take a shorter term approach to my exits. I let 40 points slip away.

Shouldn't have come out of this with less than 30 points!!

I'll certainly learn from this. It's only the beginning of my journey!

 

Don't be too hard on yourself.
Better than a loss!

Haven't even opened my chart.
 

Are you going to try and take the points back short from 6280 down to 6250 ?! It could be overextended!
 
mr. jeff said:
Are you going to try and take the points back short from 6280 down to 6250 ?! It could be overextended!
Click to expand...

Out for dad's birthday so won't be back tonight. Had my opportunity for the night.

Will check it later.
 

You're right, there is nothing on that chart at that time that suggests where it will go, but there was a nice high in that lower consolidation to put a trailing stop above that would have returned close to 1x risk. There is also a clue that the volume during the fall didnt increase and fell away during consolidation, and it was much lower than the first couple of bars. Nothing concrete but a few signs that the fall may not have much behind it that would warrant a trailing stop.

Seems you didnt have a target in mind either. So no trailing stop and no target. Maybe they should be a part of your trading plan.

Better luck with the next one.
 
Here's three ideas for a stop, SAR, ATR, MA...plus the one you mentioned, a smaller time frame
 

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The problem with this trade is that I was looking at the daily chart and thinking it might be a position trade if it continued to fall so I wanted to give it room. I thought a low risk setup on the daily chart might be an ok play.

But agree that there were some signs and a place to trail it. I was thinking larger time frame which didn't eventuate!
 
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