The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Last night I took a good one after the down move. I wasn't on for the open.

2 contracts at 6762, stop 6755
It moved to 6775 before returning to BE to take me out.
Target was around 6790.

Two nights in a row I've got a good setup to BE and up about 15 points (per contract) only to give it back.
Both I thought had more potential.
But I'm trying to catch 30-40 point moves so there will be days like that.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'm only ~2500 hrs into the 10,000 required to gain a full license, but yes I do trade like that, although its still wip for the most part.

Be careful. Millions of people have wasted their life casing 10,000 hours. It is only a guarantee of 10 years of your life wasted. Not of expertise.

The best way to improve at this game is to spend as much time looking back over what you have just tried to trade and figuring out what worked and what didn't, whats good and what's bad, what did I miss and so on ...

Actually I would strongly disagree. Up to a point (maybe a few 100 hours) its good. After that if you cannot look forward at what is going to happen then you have no edge. Its the next 9000 hours that is spent trying to milk what you can see happening to consistent profitably that is the hard part. Because even then you will spend the rest of your trading career (thats the after 10,000 hours well spent) thinking "F$#$#@% I knew that was going to happen but why was it so hard to trade".

If you don't see where we are going with a responsible amount of accuracy you are probably only at 200 hours.

 

[Caveroute]

Be careful. Millions of people have wasted their life casing 10,000 hours. It is only a guarantee of 10 years of your life wasted. Not of expertise.




Actually I would strongly disagree. Up to a point (maybe a few 100 hours) its good. After that if you cannot look forward at what is going to happen then you have no edge. Its the next 9000 hours that is spent trying to milk what you can see happening to consistent profitably that is the hard part. Because even then you will spend the rest of your trading career (thats the after 10,000 hours well spent) thinking "F$#$#@% I knew that was going to happen but why was it so hard to trade".

If you don't see where we are going with a responsible amount of accuracy you are probably only at 200 hours.

That's right, you don't get any marks for effort in this game - it's how good you are.

i'm getting better, the road ahead is clear, the x hours comment was really meant to say 'choose you style, make sure it works and it works for you, stick to it and improve over time'.

As an observation, taking a short with the right setup off each touch of the TL for the rest of the night would have been very profitable. It doesn't get much easier than that. You just had to be patient ...............

 

[Wysiwyg]

My take, not trying to be a smart ****, but an interesting chart ....

Thing is, if you 'project' the channel at the start of the chart, the trend channel changes completely. If you 'project' the channel after the chart is completed then the bear channel is 'obvious'. Point I make is these boundaries exist only by creation afterwards. The short entry point you marked could also have been at the start of a trend change up with the previous three lows finding support at your 0% fib. line.

 

[pavilion103]

This is why I work with (what appear to me) obvious S/R.

I'm never guessing what the channel is, or re-drawing lines 100 times a night.

Short off resistance (horizontal line)
Long off support (horizontal line)

Obviously other factors to consider, but I keep it simple in regards to the above.
It works well for me.

 

[CanOz]

This is why I work with (what appear to me) obvious S/R.

I'm never guessing what the channel is, or re-drawing lines 100 times a night.

Short off resistance (horizontal line)
Long off support (horizontal line)

Obviously other factors to consider, but I keep it simple in regards to the above.
It works well for me.

I think this is the key to finding areas to trade the markets context, the areas where the risk to trade versus the reward of success is the greatest. Its the context with which to generate the trade ideas that's the most difficult for me to develop and trust. For example, you think there could be a massive short covering rally today and you identify some areas where you could get in if that happens, then the market opens and immediately drives lower and you abandon that idea....only to have the market test a support level, after you sell the break lower, come back take out your stop and bolt off higher as short runs for cover....yourself included...

The point at which you can flip and realize that yes the short covering rally is happening is the point at which you are starting to read the market better.

 

[Caveroute]

Thing is, if you 'project' the channel at the start of the chart, the trend channel changes completely. If you 'project' the channel after the chart is completed then the bear channel is 'obvious'. Point I make is these boundaries exist only by creation afterwards. The short entry point you marked could also have been at the start of a trend change up with the previous three lows finding support at your 0% fib. line.

Well, you pays your money and you takes your chance.

All [ and I missed it btw until later] that was required here was take the TCL, that started y'day, and drop it where it fits on the pivot highs, and there is your 'potential' channel, you then have some context to work with. If it didn't control prices then maybe it was wrong.

The fib point I think you you refer to is arguably the bottom of a range, in fact the channel is composed of consecutive ranges in my view - and yes it could have trended up, but it didn't. It reversed on good context, with a good pattern and a good signal bar.

It did break through the bottom of the range, tested the b/o, and then continued south. You need to make a bull/bear call on all the evidence available - and it's a judgement call - the better your judgement the better your edge.

It's not easy, but other people are seeing this stuff and basing their trades accordingly. If there are enough 'followers' you should be good for at least a scalp before and if the pattern fails. If it doesn't fail, your runners are good to go.

 

[pavilion103]

The point at which you can flip and realize that yes the short covering rally is happening is the point at which you are starting to read the market better.

Yes. So important.

For me, for 2 reasons.
1) being able to take profit at a point close to where the trend is reversing/has reversed.
2) being able to identify the next move to trade.

Will never get it perfect.
But you definitely need to be awake to what is going on (requires an open mind).

 

[kid hustlr]

Followed by a poor trade for 6 point loss.

See notes on chart.

View attachment 57099

I'd like to re-visit this one in more detail If you guys are keen?

Lone Wolf this was the trade you said you also took and I had a couple of points which I posted about context.

Main reason I was so interested in this trade is that it reminded me of a very similar one I took a few months back which I posted on here and T/H tore me apart for and actually kind of hurt my internet feelings and left me a little butt hurt. The crux of his point (I think) was don't shoe horn patterns, its the bigger picture/context/other factors which are just as important as to how the pattern is setting up on the screen.

PAV - why do you think this was a bad trade? Obviously it was a losing trade but why do you think it failed?

Anyway this was my failed attempt at a short from mid November - I think it looks very similar to the trade you took in the chart above.

 

[pavilion103]

Context. That's why.
It had just broken through resistance with momentum.

If this had occurred at the resistance level then it would have been one I'd take every time.

 

[pavilion103]

Plus even if it did break down it would encounter the previous resistance level as support.

Context was poor.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Main reason I was so interested in this trade is that it reminded me of a very similar one I took a few months back which I posted on here and T/H tore me apart for and actually kind of hurt my internet feelings and left me a little butt hurt.

LOL!

How you going this week. Get to hold a fade of Monday?

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah last 3 days played as expected, as usual I didn't capitalise.

another typically poor week for me in the bonds, I really did think the Russian thing was a hoax and I was pretty certain we'd sell off after RBA but once again the way I've been taught to trade doesn't really capitalise on those longer time frame moves. intraday scalping has been very tough.

in the old day's from what I gather it used to be like 'mkt is going down, get long spreads or steepeners on or vica versa'

these days theres so much size around its purely dependant on where guys are positioned. I mean after we gapped up in the bonds Monday I really did want to come from the sell side but the slowness of this market, I pretty need to run some kind of short trade and hold it for like a week, so then what do I do not sleep? how do I manage the trade when im sleeping? it's a big issue for me and one which might prove my downfall in this game.

I feel I have a really good feel where are going most of the time, I just struggle to take advantage.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Yeah last 3 days played as expected, as usual I didn't capitalise.


Monday I really did want to come from the sell side but the slowness of this market, I pretty need to run some kind of short trade and hold it for like a week, so then what do I do not sleep? how do I manage the trade when im sleeping? it's a big issue for me and one which might prove my downfall in this game.

I feel I have a really good feel where are going most of the time, I just struggle to take advantage.

You haven't got access to stops (same here!!)? Or not used?

 

[kid hustlr]

You haven't got access to stops (same here!!)? Or not used?

mac bank brokers are useless

i could set stops on my machine or maybe set my alarm for th emiddle of the night to check on it once to make sure a bomb hasn't gone off i guess.

it's also hard to set stops for spreads because ill have positions in multiple markets - this is a legitimate issue.

i guess ive answered my own question a fraction in that ive just go to use a size which im comfortable sleeping on.

either way ive got to change up something and soon because i can't keep 'seeing it' and not taking advantage of it.

 

[CanOz]

well, today might be quiet start on the EU indices, interest rate decision day...not that there should be any surprises, maybe some QE stuff...

 

[pavilion103]

Short 79

On Skype with kid at the moment

 

[CanOz]

Short 79

On Skype with kid at the moment

Yeah that bloody consolidation broken, finally. I'm looking for a long once we get back into yesty's value area....news out by then so may have to sit on hands...Some more...

Of course i'm generally speaking of the DAX here...

 

[Newt]

Canoz, what's that news feed site you've shown please? Commerical I assume?

 

[CanOz]

Canoz, what's that news feed site you've shown please? Commerical I assume?

Nah its free...

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