The state of the economy at the street level

[Tyler Durden]

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.

 

[SirRumpole]

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.

Was at Bunnings the other day and asked an attendant why all the self service checkouts were closed.

She said that they need people to man the self service checkouts because people "forget" to scan a few items on the way out.

Maybe people can't afford the things they want or maybe they just enjoy cheating and getting away with something.

 

[Jack Aubrey]

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.

Not sure about "poorer economy" leading directly to crime, but research suggests growing inequality does. Welfare "crackdowns" can't do anything else other than lead to rising crime IMO. People gotta eat.

As for minor pilfering via self-service checkouts, I think that's just opportunistic and a bit of a middle-finger salute to businesses that replace people with machines. It will probably pass (or the machines will get smarter). I'm sure there's a bit of desperation crime too - as one of my son's unemployed friends puts it "at a self-service checkout, when you're broke, everything is a potato". (Not an endorsement)

 

[PZ99]

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.

I put it down to greater financial dependence for drugs at the moment.

 

[Value Collector]

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.

Not necessarily a poorer economy, but maybe certain demographics slice of the pie has shrunk, even though the pie has grown.

The economic pie will always be cut and distributed 3 ways.

1, to those providing the labour

2, to those providing capital

3, those funded by taxing 1 & 2.

The general trend is that the economy is growing to be more capital intensive and less labour intensive.

Meaning machines, equipment and software is reducing increasing the output while also reducing the need for labour.

Eg, 1 guy in a $20 million mega digger can move more dirt than 100 guys with shovels, so more of the profits of a mine flow to the shareholders who paid for the mega digger than they do to labour (although that 1 guy operating the digger earns a lot more than any one guy with a shovel).

—————

So we will see continued stories of unskilled workers suffering and joining doles lines, as the move from 1’s to 3’s.

But, over all the economy will grow, and us capital owners that have made wise investments will continue to earn a bigger section of the pie.

————-
Bottom line is, teach your kids to invest, or they will be fighting to claim a shrinking section of pie.

 

[SirRumpole]

Bottom line is, teach your kids to invest, or they will be fighting to claim a shrinking section of pie.

That assumes they have money to invest in the first place.

If they are forced into a subsistence lifestyle in the gig economy where most of their income goes to necessary expenditure then they won't be investing much.

 

[SirRumpole]

But, over all the economy will grow, and us capital owners that have made wise investments will continue to earn a bigger section of the pie.

How can an economy grow when the majority have less money to spend and buy the goods that the capital owners produce ?

This is why we are seeing reducing consumer confidence and sod all growth in most of the Western economies.

 

[Value Collector]

That assumes they have money to invest in the first place.

If they are forced into a subsistence lifestyle in the gig economy where most of their income goes to necessary expenditure then they won't be investing much.

There are still plenty of good jobs to be had, and plenty of opportunities to create your own jobs providing services to people with money.

The trick is to spend less than you earn, even if you don’t earn much, and use these savings to slowly build a capital base, and become an investor.

So many children grow up being taught about how labour can make money, few ever learn about how investing makes money.

 

[Value Collector]

How can an economy grow when the majority have less money to spend and buy the goods that the capital owners produce ?

This is why we are seeing reducing consumer confidence and sod all growth in most of the Western economies.

The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.

There is no rule that says this pile of goods and services needs to be distributed equally to everyone.

Eg a factory that produced $1 billion of 747 commercial jets could switch to producing $1.1 Billion of private jets and the economy has grown by 10%.

Sure less people will be flying in total, but a greater number will be flying in private jets, hence a small group a simply taking a larger piece of pie.

 

[moXJO]

The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.

I understand the principal of what you are saying. But isn't money lost from the system when corporations send profits to low tax countries?

 

[Value Collector]

I understand the principal of what you are saying. But isn't money lost from the system when corporations send profits to low tax countries?

The system is global, the economy is global.

Where ever the money goes to be taxed, it will end up back in 1 of 3 places.

1, share holders pockets and spent (where ever they are)

2, invested by the company (wages, capital investment)

3, Sit in a bank some where and get loaned out to others across the globe.

 

[SirRumpole]

The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.

There is no rule that says this pile of goods and services needs to be distributed equally to everyone.

More goods and services will be produced each year while global population is increasing.

But deep down I think we all know that this is a Ponzi scheme.

Global population can't increase indefinitely and maintain living standards. There has to be an equilibrium sometime and that will involve a redistribution of wealth from capital to consumption to keep the global economy in balance.

 

[SirRumpole]

A good analysis of the current state of the economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-21/can-the-rba-talk-us-into-a-recovery/11621632

 

[satanoperca]

How about instead of dropping interest rates which after many, the general population have released is not a good sign, increase them sending a sign that things are looking up.

As for unemployment rates, they can always be manipulated. If you have had 1 hour of work over the last decade you are considered employed - fixed that problem, time to move on to the next.

Make politicians accountable for their actions and not just at the polls, hit their super.

 

[sptrawler]

Things are looking o.k for online retailers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ring-first-quarter-sales-20191023-p533bt.html

As we have said before, unless you are selling something that must be bought immediately, a lot of people are buying online cheaper and waiting for it to arrive at the door.
I guess that is why Westfarmers just bought catch.com, the writing is on the wall.
Things are definitely changing, shopping centres will become social hubs, that mainly provide food and entertainment. IMO
It wont happen overnight, but it will happen.

 

[Value Collector]

Global population can't increase indefinitely and maintain living standards. There has to be an equilibrium sometime and that will involve a redistribution of wealth from capital to consumption to keep the global economy in balance.

While agree that the population can’t increase indefinitely.

The claim that wealth must be redistributed from capital to consumption is completely false.

The growing population will require and ever increasing amount of capital investment to support itself.

Eg,
houses need to be replaced with apartment buildings.

Open crop fields need to be replaced with sheltered greenhouses, and netting.

More transport needs to be built, more water, more shops, etc etc

The trend has been the same for 1000 years, nothing is new, it’s all the same story since Adam before Adam smith wrote the wealth of nations.

 

[SirRumpole]

While agree that the population can’t increase indefinitely.

The claim that wealth must be redistributed from capital to consumption is completely false.

The growing population will require and ever increasing amount of capital investment to support itself.

Eg,
houses need to be replaced with apartment buildings.

Open crop fields need to be replaced with sheltered greenhouses, and netting.

More transport needs to be built, more water, more shops, etc etc

The trend has been the same for 1000 years, nothing is new, it’s all the same story since Adam before Adam smith wrote the wealth of nations.

Time will tell, but world population is increasing while most economies aren't growing at all, going backwards or growing very slowly.

The world has been living on debt for a long time and there has to be a reckoning at some point.

 

[SirRumpole]

Time will tell, but world population is increasing while most economies aren't growing at all, going backwards or growing very slowly.

The world has been living on debt for a long time and there has to be a reckoning at some point.

There are a lot of empty apartments in Australia at the moment. Why build them if people aren't buying ?

 

[qldfrog]

@SirRumpole
Look at Japan
Not a bad place to live in, but personal consumption is low, per capita income is low and it is still an economic superpower

Giving more money to the average Joe will lead to indeed higher meths price, higher pokies income and beer alcohol sales ,tobaccos, jetski and bigger American pickup Monster on the road with higher debt bill for the spoiled rotten kids
At the same time, more taxes on business entrepreneurs
Not that great a recipe for the future

We have had 40y of "relance par la consommation" in France
A broke socialist paradise...want to swap with australian living?
You can only release the purse string when having a balance budget
Aka Howard years
Now it is time to tighten the purse and transfer expenses into missing infrastructure
Road rail and port land water

 

[qldfrog]

I forgot energy